Organising a conference to facilitate interdisciplinary interaction

Acknowledgements The Facing the Future format was initiated by Professor Ioan Fazey at the Centre for Environmental Change and Human Resilience (CECHR) at the University of Dundee. We would like to thank Professor Fazey, as well as Louise Henderson from CECHR, Dr Anthony Hodgson and Dr David Beatty from the International Future Forum (IFF) for their continued support throughout organising Facing the Future 2016 in Aberdeen. We would also like to thank our supervisors for their support.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Global cropland and greenhouse gas impacts of UK food supply are increasingly located overseas

Funding This work was supported by a University of Aberdeen Environment and Food Security Theme/the James Hutton Institute PhD studentship, and contributes to the Scottish Food Security Alliance-Crops and the Belmont Forum supported DEVIL project (NERC fund UK contribution: NE/M021327/1). J.M. and R.B.M. acknowledge funding from the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services, Scottish Government. T.K. acknowledges funding from the European Research Council Grant ERC-263522 (LUISE).Peer reviewedPostprin

Villages and Urbanization

In this article comments by politician Boris Johnson and economist Edward Glaeser exemplify narratives of global urbanization that portray rural villages as redundant and perpetuate outdated notions of urban–rural division. Simultaneously, traditional urban–rural dialectics are distorted by divisive new urban projects like gated communities styled as villages. This paper argues for development models that acknowledge the vital environmental and economic roles played by rural villages, and opposes artificially created “villages” in cities. In so doing, alternative readings of rurality and villages by Rem Koolhaas, Brazilian land reformers, Mahatma Gandhi, and critics of contemporary Indian literature and urbanism are considered

Assessing national nutrition security

Funding: The author(s) received no specific funding for this work. JIM and SW acknowledge funding from the Scottish Government’s Rural and Environment Science Analytical Services Strategic Research Programme. HC acknowledges funding from the Fondation Daniel & Nina Carasso. This work contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (Natural Environment Research Council grant number NE/M021327/1) (JIM). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

The Effect of Household Income on Land Requirements for Food: an International Comparison

SUMMARY The production of food has major consequences for the appropriation of land. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates that 38% of the total arable land is currently used for the production of food. This share is expected to increase in the next decades, as the size of the world population is increasing and total wealth is growing. Environmental food studies show that income has a substantial influence on both the amount and the type of food consumed. However, up to now, most studies compare the effect of income between countries. In the current research, the effect of income within countries is studied. This is done by studying the effect of household income on land requirements for food. The results will lead to more insights in the underlying drivers on food consumptions patterns on a sub-national level. The main research question is: ‘What is the effect of household income on land requirements for food’ Household surveys are used to obtain food consumption for different income groups within a country and these data are used to calculate the land requirements for food (LRF). As the use of household studies is relatively novel for environmental food consumption studies, a related question of the current research is whether household surveys are a valuable data source. Different definitions of (household) food consumption exist. In the current research, food availability is chosen as a measure of food consumption. Food consumed outside the house or produced at home are included in the research, whenever possible. Initially, more than 30 surveys were selected, but only 3 countries could be used for the current research goal: the United Kingdom (developed), Bulgaria (transition) and Pakistan (developing). The limiting factor in the selection of surveys is the availability of quantity data; most surveys list only monetary data. The quantities obtained in the household surveys are calculated to calories and the caloric data can be calculated to LRF. The results show that the LRF are the same for all income groups in the UK, and increasing with income in Bulgaria and Pakistan. There are two drivers behind the total LRF: total caloric availability and composition of the diet. It is shown that the total caloric availability is slightly decreasing with income for the United Kingdom, and increasing for both Bulgaria and Pakistan. The shares of the different food categories in the total caloric availability are relatively the same for all income groups in the UK, while the share of cereals is decreasing in Bulgaria and Pakistan, and the share of animal products increasing with income. The richest people in Bulgaria and Pakistan consume more costly (high LRF) calories, while this effect is negligible for the UK. Animal products have the largest share in the LRF, except for Pakistan, where cereals have the largest share. It is expected that the appropriation of land will continue to grow, since incomes will continue to rise, until diet stabilization is reached. This emphasizes the need for more efficient agricultural practices and technology use. The current research shows that household surveys can be used for environmental food studies, but their use is limited. Nevertheless, based on the surveys used in the current study, it could be shown that there is no effect of household income on LRF in the United Kingdom, but that there is such an effect in Bulgaria and Pakistan. One possible explanation could be that people in the developed world spend only a small percentage of their total income on food, while this fraction is much larger in developing countries. Based on other literature, education is suggested as a major determining factor of food consumption patterns in the Western world. A suggestion for further research is to investigate the effect of education on LRF.

Water Requirements for Food Assessed at Different Levels of Scale

SUMMARY Fresh water scarcity is a major and increasing problem. Increasing water scarcity will have consequences for food security; thus strategies are needed to reduce the appropriation of water. Since agriculture uses 70% of all freshwater withdrawals, the production of food is a major reduction target. Most present reduction strategies are aimed at the decrease of the water footprint of our food. From this perspective, two major strategies are suggested: technology to increase crop yield and trade from water-rich countries to arid countries. This combination will lower the water footprint of crops and of our food. In this research, it is argued that more fundamental reduction strategies are possible. To show this, the food production system is assessed on different scale levels: photosynthesis & macronutrient synthesis level; crop level; agricultural level; and cultural level. By doing so, relevant reduction factors for each scale level are obtained. The lowest scale level is the photosynthesis & macronutrients synthesis. This route needs 100 liter for the production of daily nutritional requirements. Using a combination of crops, excluding the effect of local production circumstances, 200 liter is required to produce our daily diet. Local agricultural influences have an effect on water use: the Dutch system needs 300 liter and the Spanish system needs 700 liter for the production of our diet. In the end, consumer preferences and associated diet choices lead to a daily water appropriation of 1500 liter per capita. Three categories of reduction strategies are suggested in this research. First: ‘shifting cultural choices’ to less meat and low water-consuming products. Second, ‘increasing agricultural efficiency’ to target water inefficiencies in the agriculture. Third, ‘breeding for nutrients’ emphasizes the more fundamental approach which highlights the quality of crops instead of the quantity of crops. This finding ‘It’s the nutrient’ opens a new perspective on crop breeding, fodder production and other issues. Further research is needed to examine more practical applications of this new perspective. By drawing more attention to nutritional quality, water appropriation can be reduced over the total agro-food system.

Cognitive impairment and associated loss in brain white microstructure in aircrew members exposed to engine oil fumes

Cabin air in airplanes can be contaminated with engine oil contaminants. These contaminations may contain organophosphates (OPs) which are known neurotoxins to brain white matter. However, it is currently unknown if brain white matter in aircrew is affected. We investigated whether we could objectify cognitive complaints in aircrew and whether we could find a neurobiological substrate for their complaints. After medical ethical approval from the local institutional review board, informed consent was obtained from 12 aircrew (2 females, on average aged 44.4 years, 8,130 flying hours) with cognitive complaints and 11 well matched control subjects (2 females, 43.4 years, 233 flying hours). Depressive symptoms and self-reported cognitive symptoms were assessed, in addition to a neuropsychological test battery. State of the art Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) techniques were administered that assess structural and functional changes, with a focus on white matter integrity. In aircrew we found significantly more self-reported cognitive complaints and depressive symptoms, and a higher number of tests scored in the impaired range compared to the control group. We observed small clusters in the brain in which white matter microstructure was affected. Also, we observed higher cerebral perfusion values in the left occipital cortex, and reduced brain activation on a functional MRI executive function task. The extent of cognitive impairment was strongly associated with white matter integrity, but extent of estimated number of flight hours was not associated with cognitive impairment nor with reductions in white matter microstructure. Defects in brain white matter microstructure and cerebral perfusion are potential neurobiological substrates for cognitive impairments and mood deficits reported in aircrew