Spatial and taxonomic biases in bat records: drivers and conservation implications in a megadiverse country

Biases in data availability have serious consequences on scientific inferences that can be derived. The potential consequences of these biases could be more detrimental in the less‐studied megadiverse regions, often characterized by high biodiversity and serious risks of human threats, as conservation and management actions could be misdirected. Here, focusing on 134 bat species in Mexico, we analyze spatial and taxonomic biases and their drivers in occurrence data; and identify priority areas for further data collection which are currently under‐sampled or at future environmental risk. We collated a comprehensive database of 26,192 presence‐only bat records in Mexico to characterize taxonomic and spatial biases and relate them to species' characteristics (range size and foraging behavior). Next, we examined variables related to accessibility, species richness and security to explain the spatial patterns in occurrence records. Finally, we compared the spatial distributions of existing data and future threats to these species to highlight those regions that are likely to experience an increased level of threats but are currently under‐surveyed. We found taxonomic biases, where species with wider geographical ranges and narrow‐space foragers (species easily captured with traditional methods), had more occurrence data. There was a significant oversampling toward tropical regions, and the presence and number of records was positively associated with areas of high topographic heterogeneity, road density, urban, and protected areas, and negatively associated with areas which were predicted to have future increases in temperature and precipitation. Sampling efforts for Mexican bats appear to have focused disproportionately on easily captured species, tropical regions, areas of high species richness and security; leading to under‐sampling in areas of high future threats. These biases could substantially influence the assessment of current status of, and future anthropogenic impacts on, this diverse species group in a tropical megadiverse country

Forecasting the combined effects of climate and land use change on Mexican bats

Aim: Climate and land use change are among the most important threatening processes driving biodiversity loss, especially in the tropics. Although the potential impacts of each threat have been widely studied in isolation, few studies have assessed the impacts of climate and land cover change in combination. Here, we evaluate the exposure of a large mammalian clade, bats, to multiple scenarios of environmental change and dispersal to understand potential consequences for biodiversity conservation. / Location: Mexico. / Methods: We used ensemble species distribution models to forecast changes in environmental suitability for 130 bat species that occur in Mexico by 2050s under four dispersal assumptions and four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We identified regions with the strongest projected impacts for each scenario and assessed the overlap across scenarios. / Results: The combined effects of climate and land use change will cause an average reduction in environmental suitability for 51% of the species across their range, regardless of scenario. Overall, species show a mean decrease in environmental suitability in at least 46% of their current range in all scenarios of change and dispersal. Climate scenarios had a higher impact on species environmental suitability than land use scenarios. There was a spatial overlap of 43% across the four environmental change scenarios for the regions projected to have the strongest impacts. / Main conclusions: Combined effects of future environmental change may result in substantial declines in environmental suitability for Mexican bats even under optimistic scenarios. This study highlights the vulnerability of megadiverse regions and an indicator taxon to human disturbance. The consideration of combined threats can make an important difference in how we react to changes to conserve our biodiversity as they pose different challenges

Acoustic identification of Mexican bats based on taxonomic and ecological constraints on call design

1. Monitoring global biodiversity is critical for understanding responses to anthropogenic change, but biodiversity monitoring is often biased away from tropical, megadiverse areas that are experiencing more rapid environmental change. Acoustic surveys are increasingly used to monitor biodiversity change, especially for bats as they are important indicator species and most use sound to detect, localise and classify objects. However, using bat acoustic surveys for monitoring poses several challenges, particularly in mega-diverse regions. Many species lack reference recordings, some species have high call similarity or differ in call detectability, and quantitative classification tools, such as machine learning algorithms, have rarely been applied to data from these areas. 2. Here, we collate a reference call library for bat species that occur in a megadiverse country, Mexico. We use 4,685 search-phase calls from 1,378 individual sequences of 59 bat species to create automatic species identification tools generated by machine learning algorithms (Random Forest). We evaluate the improvement in species-level classification rates gained by using hierarchical classifications, reflecting either taxonomic or ecological constraints (guilds) on call design, and examine how classification rate accuracy changes at different hierarchical levels (family, genus, and guild). 3. Species-level classification of calls had a mean accuracy of 66% and the use of hierarchies improved mean species-level classification accuracy by up to 6% (species within families 72%, species within genera 71.2% and species within guilds 69.1%). Classification accuracy to family, genus and guild-level was 91.7%, 77.8% and 82.5%, respectively. 4. The bioacoustic identification tools we have developed are accurate for rapid biodiversity assessments in a megadiverse region and can also be used effectively to classify species at broader taxonomic or ecological levels. This flexibility increases their usefulness when there are incomplete species reference recordings and also offers the opportunity to characterise and track changes in bat community structure. Our results show that bat bioacoustic surveys in megadiverse countries have more potential than previously thought to monitor biodiversity changes and can be used to direct further developments of bioacoustic monitoring programs in Mexico

miR-146a rs2431697 identifies myeloproliferative neoplasm patients with higher secondary myelofibrosis progression risk

Myelofibrosis (MF) occurs as part of the natural history of polycythemia vera (PV) and essential thrombocythemia (ET), and remarkably shortens survival. Although JAK2V617F and CALR allele burden are the main transformation risk factors, inflammation plays a critical role by driving clonal expansion toward end-stage disease. NF-κB is a key mediator of inflammation-induced carcinogenesis. Here, we explored the involvement of miR-146a, a brake in NF-κB signaling, in MPN susceptibility and progression. rs2910164 and rs2431697, that affect miR-146a expression, were analyzed in 967 MPN (320 PV/333 ET/314 MF) patients and 600 controls. We found that rs2431697 TT genotype was associated with MF, particularly with post-PV/ET MF (HR = 1.5; p < 0.05). Among 232 PV/ET patients (follow-up time=8.5 years), 18 (7.8%) progressed to MF, being MF-free-survival shorter for rs2431697 TT than CC + CT patients (p = 0.01). Multivariate analysis identified TT genotype as independent predictor of MF progression. In addition, TT (vs. CC + CT) patients showed increased plasma inflammatory cytokines. Finally, miR-146a−/− mice showed significantly higher Stat3 activity with aging, parallel to the development of the MF-like phenotype. In conclusion, we demonstrated that rs2431697 TT genotype is an early predictor of MF progression independent of the JAK2V617F allele burden. Low levels of miR-146a contribute to the MF phenotype by increasing Stat3 signaling

Centrality dependence of charged particle production at large transverse momentum in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=2.76\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}} = 2.76 TeV

The inclusive transverse momentum ($p_{\rm T}$) distributions of primary charged particles are measured in the pseudo-rapidity range $|\eta|<0.8$ as a function of event centrality in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm{NN}}}=2.76$ TeV with ALICE at the LHC. The data are presented in the $p_{\rm T}$ range $0.15<p_{\rm T}<50$ GeV/$c$ for nine centrality intervals from 70-80% to 0-5%. The Pb-Pb spectra are presented in terms of the nuclear modification factor $R_{\rm{AA}}$ using a pp reference spectrum measured at the same collision energy. We observe that the suppression of high-$p_{\rm T}$ particles strongly depends on event centrality. In central collisions (0-5%) the yield is most suppressed with $R_{\rm{AA}}\approx0.13$ at $p_{\rm T}=6$-7 GeV/$c$. Above $p_{\rm T}=7$ GeV/$c$, there is a significant rise in the nuclear modification factor, which reaches $R_{\rm{AA}} \approx0.4$ for $p_{\rm T}>30$ GeV/$c$. In peripheral collisions (70-80%), the suppression is weaker with $R_{\rm{AA}} \approx 0.7$ almost independently of $p_{\rm T}$. The measured nuclear modification factors are compared to other measurements and model calculations.Comment: 17 pages, 4 captioned figures, 2 tables, authors from page 12, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/284

Charge separation relative to the reaction plane in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=2.76\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}}= 2.76 TeV

Measurements of charge dependent azimuthal correlations with the ALICE detector at the LHC are reported for Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}} = 2.76$ TeV. Two- and three-particle charge-dependent azimuthal correlations in the pseudo-rapidity range $|\eta| < 0.8$ are presented as a function of the collision centrality, particle separation in pseudo-rapidity, and transverse momentum. A clear signal compatible with a charge-dependent separation relative to the reaction plane is observed, which shows little or no collision energy dependence when compared to measurements at RHIC energies. This provides a new insight for understanding the nature of the charge dependent azimuthal correlations observed at RHIC and LHC energies.Comment: 12 pages, 3 captioned figures, authors from page 2 to 6, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/286

A note on comonotonicity and positivity of the control components of decoupled quadratic FBSDE

In this small note we are concerned with the solution of Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (FBSDE) with drivers that grow quadratically in the control component (quadratic growth FBSDE or qgFBSDE). The main theorem is a comparison result that allows comparing componentwise the signs of the control processes of two different qgFBSDE. As a byproduct one obtains conditions that allow establishing the positivity of the control process.Comment: accepted for publicatio

Anisotropic flow of charged hadrons, pions and (anti-)protons measured at high transverse momentum in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=2.76\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}}=2.76 TeV

The elliptic, $v_2$, triangular, $v_3$, and quadrangular, $v_4$, azimuthal anisotropic flow coefficients are measured for unidentified charged particles, pions and (anti-)protons in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\rm NN}} = 2.76$ TeV with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Results obtained with the event plane and four-particle cumulant methods are reported for the pseudo-rapidity range $|\eta|<0.8$ at different collision centralities and as a function of transverse momentum, $p_{\rm T}$, out to $p_{\rm T}=20$ GeV/$c$. The observed non-zero elliptic and triangular flow depends only weakly on transverse momentum for $p_{\rm T}>8$ GeV/$c$. The small $p_{\rm T}$ dependence of the difference between elliptic flow results obtained from the event plane and four-particle cumulant methods suggests a common origin of flow fluctuations up to $p_{\rm T}=8$ GeV/$c$. The magnitude of the (anti-)proton elliptic and triangular flow is larger than that of pions out to at least $p_{\rm T}=8$ GeV/$c$ indicating that the particle type dependence persists out to high $p_{\rm T}$.Comment: 16 pages, 5 captioned figures, authors from page 11, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/186

Transverse sphericity of primary charged particles in minimum bias proton-proton collisions at s=0.9\sqrt{s}=0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV

Measurements of the sphericity of primary charged particles in minimum bias proton--proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=0.9$, 2.76 and 7 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC are presented. The observable is linearized to be collinear safe and is measured in the plane perpendicular to the beam direction using primary charged tracks with $p_{\rm T}\geq0.5$ GeV/c in $|\eta|\leq0.8$. The mean sphericity as a function of the charged particle multiplicity at mid-rapidity ($N_{\rm ch}$) is reported for events with different $p_{\rm T}$ scales ("soft" and "hard") defined by the transverse momentum of the leading particle. In addition, the mean charged particle transverse momentum versus multiplicity is presented for the different event classes, and the sphericity distributions in bins of multiplicity are presented. The data are compared with calculations of standard Monte Carlo event generators. The transverse sphericity is found to grow with multiplicity at all collision energies, with a steeper rise at low $N_{\rm ch}$, whereas the event generators show the opposite tendency. The combined study of the sphericity and the mean $p_{\rm T}$ with multiplicity indicates that most of the tested event generators produce events with higher multiplicity by generating more back-to-back jets resulting in decreased sphericity (and isotropy). The PYTHIA6 generator with tune PERUGIA-2011 exhibits a noticeable improvement in describing the data, compared to the other tested generators.Comment: 21 pages, 9 captioned figures, 3 tables, authors from page 16, published version, figures from http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/308

Measurement of charm production at central rapidity in proton-proton collisions at s=2.76\sqrt{s} = 2.76 TeV

The $p_{\rm T}$-differential production cross sections of the prompt (B feed-down subtracted) charmed mesons D$^0$, D$^+$, and D$^{*+}$ in the rapidity range $|y|<0.5$, and for transverse momentum $1< p_{\rm T} <12$ GeV/$c$, were measured in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 2.76$ TeV with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The analysis exploited the hadronic decays D$^0 \rightarrow$K$\pi$, D$^+ \rightarrow$K$\pi\pi$, D$^{*+} \rightarrow$D$^0\pi$, and their charge conjugates, and was performed on a $L_{\rm int} = 1.1$ nb$^{-1}$ event sample collected in 2011 with a minimum-bias trigger. The total charm production cross section at $\sqrt{s} = 2.76$ TeV and at 7 TeV was evaluated by extrapolating to the full phase space the $p_{\rm T}$-differential production cross sections at $\sqrt{s} = 2.76$ TeV and our previous measurements at $\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV. The results were compared to existing measurements and to perturbative-QCD calculations. The fraction of cdbar D mesons produced in a vector state was also determined.Comment: 20 pages, 5 captioned figures, 4 tables, authors from page 15, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/307