Integrating invasion and disease in the risk assessment of live bird trade.

AimInternational trade in plants and animals generates significant economic benefits. It also leads to substantial unintended impacts when introduced species become invasive, causing environmental disturbance or transmitting diseases that affect people, livestock, other wildlife or the environment. Policy responses are usually only implemented after these species become established and damages are already incurred. International agreements to control trade are likewise usually based on selection of species with known impacts. We aim to further develop quantitative invasive species risk assessment for bird imports and extend the tool to explicitly address disease threats.LocationUnited States of America.MethodsWe use a two-step approach for rapid risk assessment based on the expected biological risks due to both the environmental and health impact of a potentially invasive wildlife species in trade. We assess establishment probability based on a model informed by historical observations and then construct a model of emerging infectious disease threat based on economic and ecological characteristics of the exporting country.ResultsWe illustrate how our rapid assessment tool can be used to identify high-priority species for regulation based on a combination of the threat they pose for becoming established and vectoring emerging infectious diseases.Main conclusionsOur approach can be executed for a species in a matter of days and is nested in an economic decision-making framework for determining whether the biological risk is justified by trade benefits

Corrigendum to "Global correlates of emerging zoonoses: Anthropogenic, environmental, and biodiversity risk factors" [Int. J. Infect. Dis. 53 (Supplement) (December 2016) 21]

The authors regret that Dr Moreno di Marco's name was published with errors in the original abstract. The authors would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused

Plant and animal endemism in the eastern Andean slope: challenges to conservation

Andean slope: challenges to conservatio

Conserving Ecosystem Diversity in the Tropical Andes

Documenting temporal trends in the extent of ecosystems is essential to monitoring their status but combining this information with the degree of protection helps us assess the effectiveness of societal actions for conserving ecosystem diversity and related ecosystem services. We demonstrated indicators in the Tropical Andes using both potential (pre-industrial) and recent (~2010) distribution maps of terrestrial ecosystem types. We measured long-term ecosystem loss, representation of ecosystem types within the current protected areas, quantifying the additional representation offered by protecting Key Biodiversity Areas. Six (4.8%) ecosystem types (i.e., measured as 126 distinct vegetation macrogroups) have lost >50% in extent across four Andean countries since pre-industrial times. For ecosystem type representation within protected areas, regarding the pre-industrial extent of each type, a total of 32 types (25%) had higher representation (>30%) than the post-2020 Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) draft target in existing protected areas. Just 5 of 95 types (5.2%) within the montane Tropical Andes hotspot are currently represented with >30% within the protected areas. Thirty-nine types (31%) within these countries could cross the 30% CBD 2030 target with the addition of Key Biodiversity Areas. This indicator is based on the Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBV) and responds directly to the needs expressed by the users of these countries

Nipah virus dynamics in bats and implications for spillover to humans

Nipah virus (NiV) is an emerging bat-borne zoonotic virus that causes near-annual outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in South Asia-one of the most populous regions on Earth. In Bangladesh, infection occurs when people drink date-palm sap contaminated with bat excreta. Outbreaks are sporadic, and the influence of viral dynamics in bats on their temporal and spatial distribution is poorly understood. We analyzed data on host ecology, molecular epidemiology, serological dynamics, and viral genetics to characterize spatiotemporal patterns of NiV dynamics in its wildlife reservoir, bats, in Bangladesh. We found that NiV transmission occurred throughout the country and throughout the year. Model results indicated that local transmission dynamics were modulated by density-dependent transmission, acquired immunity that is lost over time, and recrudescence. Increased transmission followed multiyear periods of declining seroprevalence due to bat-population turnover and individual loss of humoral immunity. Individual bats had smaller host ranges than other species (spp.), although movement data and the discovery of a Malaysia-clade NiV strain in eastern Bangladesh suggest connectivity with bats east of Bangladesh. These data suggest that discrete multiannual local epizootics in bat populations contribute to the sporadic nature of NiV outbreaks in South Asia. At the same time, the broad spatial and temporal extent of NiV transmission, including the recent outbreak in Kerala, India, highlights the continued risk of spillover to humans wherever they may interact with pteropid bats and the importance of limiting opportunities for spillover throughout 's range. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59.3 (95% uncertainty interval 56.8-61.8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85.5 (84.2-86.5) in Iceland to 20.4 (15.4-24.9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r(2) = 0.88) and the MDG index (r(2) = 0.2), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r(2) = 0.79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7.9 (IQR 5.0-10.4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10.0 [6.7-13.1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5.5 [2.1-8.9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.Peer reviewe

Socializing One Health: an innovative strategy to investigate social and behavioral risks of emerging viral threats

In an effort to strengthen global capacity to prevent, detect, and control infectious diseases in animals and people, the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Emerging Pandemic Threats (EPT) PREDICT project funded development of regional, national, and local One Health capacities for early disease detection, rapid response, disease control, and risk reduction. From the outset, the EPT approach was inclusive of social science research methods designed to understand the contexts and behaviors of communities living and working at human-animal-environment interfaces considered high-risk for virus emergence. Using qualitative and quantitative approaches, PREDICT behavioral research aimed to identify and assess a range of socio-cultural behaviors that could be influential in zoonotic disease emergence, amplification, and transmission. This broad approach to behavioral risk characterization enabled us to identify and characterize human activities that could be linked to the transmission dynamics of new and emerging viruses. This paper provides a discussion of implementation of a social science approach within a zoonotic surveillance framework. We conducted in-depth ethnographic interviews and focus groups to better understand the individual- and community-level knowledge, attitudes, and practices that potentially put participants at risk for zoonotic disease transmission from the animals they live and work with, across 6 interface domains. When we asked highly-exposed individuals (ie. bushmeat hunters, wildlife or guano farmers) about the risk they perceived in their occupational activities, most did not perceive it to be risky, whether because it was normalized by years (or generations) of doing such an activity, or due to lack of information about potential risks. Integrating the social sciences allows investigations of the specific human activities that are hypothesized to drive disease emergence, amplification, and transmission, in order to better substantiate behavioral disease drivers, along with the social dimensions of infection and transmission dynamics. Understanding these dynamics is critical to achieving health security--the protection from threats to health-- which requires investments in both collective and individual health security. Involving behavioral sciences into zoonotic disease surveillance allowed us to push toward fuller community integration and engagement and toward dialogue and implementation of recommendations for disease prevention and improved health security

A time-calibrated species-level phylogeny of bats (Chiroptera, Mammalia)

Despite their obvious utility, detailed species-level phylogenies are lacking for many groups, including several major mammalian lineages such as bats. Here we provide a cytochrome b genealogy of over 50% of bat species (648 terminal taxa). Based on prior analyzes of related mammal groups, cytb emerges as a particularly reliable phylogenetic marker, and given that our results are broadly congruent with prior knowledge, the phylogeny should be a useful tool for comparative analyzes. Nevertheless, we stress that a single-gene analysis of such a large and old group cannot be interpreted as more than a crude estimate of the bat species tree. Analysis of the full dataset supports the traditional division of bats into macro- and microchiroptera, but not the recently proposed division into Yinpterochiroptera and Yangochiroptera. However, our results only weakly reject the former and strongly support the latter group, and furthermore, a time calibrated analysis of a pruned dataset where most included taxa have the entire 1140bp cytb sequence finds monophyletic Yinpterochiroptera. Most bat families and many higher level groups are supported, however, relationships among families are in general weakly supported, as are many of the deeper nodes of the tree. The exceptions are in most cases apparently due to the misplacement of species with little available data, while in a few cases the results suggest putative problems with current classification, such as the non-monophyly of Mormoopidae. We provide this phylogenetic hypothesis, and an analysis of divergence times, as tools for evolutionary and ecological studies that will be useful until more inclusive studies using multiple loci become available

Targeting Transmission Pathways for Emerging Zoonotic Disease Surveillance and Control

We used literature searches and a database of all reported emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) to analyze the most important transmission pathways (e.g., vector-borne, aerosol droplet transmitted) for emerging zoonoses. Our results suggest that at the broad scale, the likelihood of transmission occurring through any one pathway is approximately equal. However, the major transmission pathways for zoonoses differ widely according to the specific underlying drivers of EID events (e.g., land-use change, agricultural intensification). These results can be used to develop better targeting of surveillance for, and more effective control of newly emerged zoonoses in regions under different underlying pressures that drive disease emergence

Tomada de decisão baseada em evidências: uma abordagem de co-design para informações sobre biodiversidade nos Andes tropicais

Biodiversity conservation is a complex and transdisciplinary problem that requires engagement and cooperation among scientific, societal, economic, and political institutions. However, historical approaches have often failed to bring together and address the needs of all relevant stakeholders in decision‐making processes. The Tropical Andes, a biodiversity hotspot where conservation efforts often conflict with socioeconomic issues and policies that prioritize economic development, provides an ideal model to develop and implement more effective approaches. In this study, we present a co‐design approach that mainstreams and improves the flow of biodiversity information in the Tropical Andes, while creating tailored outputs that meet the needs of economic and societal stakeholders. We employed a consultative process that brought together biodiversity information users and producers at the local, national, and regional levels through a combination of surveys and workshops. This approach identified priority needs and limitations of the flow of biodiversity information in the region, which led to the co‐design of user‐relevant biodiversity indicators. By leveraging the existing capacities of biodiversity information users and producers, we were able to co‐design multiple biodiversity indicators and prioritize two for full implementation ensuring that the data was findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable based on the FAIR principles. This approach helped address limitations that were identified in the stakeholder engagement process, including gaps in data availability and the need for more accessible biodiversity information. Additionally, capacity‐building workshops were incorporated for all producers of biodiversity information involved, which aimed to not only improve the current flow of biodiversity information in the region but also facilitate its future sustainability. Our approach can serve as a valuable blueprint for mainstreaming biodiversity information and making it more inclusive in the future, especially considering the diverse worldviews, values, and knowledge systems between science, policy, and practice.La conservación de la biodiversidad es un problema complejo y transdisciplinario que requiere el compromiso y la cooperación entre instituciones científicas, sociales, económicas y políticas. Sin embargo, los enfoques tradicionales/convencionales  a menudo no logran  reunir y abordar las necesidades de todos los actores relevantes en los procesos de toma de decisiones. Los Andes tropicales, un área clave  de biodiversidad donde los esfuerzos de conservación a menudo entran en conflicto con cuestiones socioeconómicas y políticas que priorizan el desarrollo económico, proporcionan un modelo ideal para desarrollar e implementar enfoques más efectivos. En este estudio, presentamos un enfoque co-diseño que integra y mejora el flujo de información sobre biodiversidad en los Andes tropicales, creando resultados personalizados que satisfacen las necesidades, tanto económicas como sociales, de las partes interesadas. Empleamos un proceso de consulta que reunió a usuarios y productores de información sobre biodiversidad a nivel local, nacional y regional, a través de encuestas y talleres. Este enfoque ha permitido identificar necesidades prioritarias y limitaciones del flujo de información sobre biodiversidad en la región; lo cual llevó al codiseño de indicadores de biodiversidad relevantes para los usuarios. Aprovechando las capacidades existentes de los usuarios y productores de información sobre biodiversidad, pudimos co-diseñar múltiples indicadores de biodiversidad y priorizar dos de estos para su implementación completa, asegurando que los datos sean localizables, accesibles, interoperables y reutilizables, según los principios FAIR. Este enfoque ayudó a abordar las limitaciones que se identificaron en el proceso de participación de las partes interesadas; incluidas las brechas en la disponibilidad de datos y la necesidad de información sobre biodiversidad más accesible. Además, se incorporaron talleres de desarrollo de capacidades para todos los productores de información sobre biodiversidad involucrados, los cuales apuntaron no sólo a mejorar el flujo actual de información sobre biodiversidad en la región, sino también facilitar su sostenibilidad futura. Nuestro enfoque puede servir como un modelo valioso para incorporar la información sobre biodiversidad y hacerla más inclusiva en el futuro; especialmente si consideramos las diversas perspectivas globales, valores y sistemas de conocimiento implicados en las interacciones entre  la ciencia, la política y su aplicación práctica.A conservação da biodiversidade é um problema complexo e transdisciplinar que requer compromisso e cooperação entre instituições científicas, sociais, económicas e políticas. No entanto, as abordagens tradicionais/convencionais muitas vezes não conseguem reunir e responder às necessidades de todos os intervenientes relevantes nos processos de tomada de decisão. Os Andes tropicais, uma área chave para a biodiversidade onde os esforços de conservação entram frequentemente em conflito com questões socioeconómicas e políticas que dão prioridade ao desenvolvimento económico, fornecem um modelo ideal para desenvolver e implementar abordagens mais eficazes. Neste estudo, apresentamos uma abordagem de co-design que integra e melhora o fluxo de informações sobre biodiversidade nos Andes tropicais, criando resultados personalizados que atendem às necessidades, tanto econômicas quanto sociais, das partes interessadas. Empregamos um processo de consulta que reuniu usuários e produtores de informações sobre biodiversidade nos níveis local, nacional e regional, por meio de pesquisas e workshops. Esta abordagem permitiu identificar necessidades prioritárias e limitações do fluxo de informação sobre a biodiversidade na região; o que levou à concepção conjunta de indicadores de biodiversidade relevantes para os utilizadores. Aproveitando as capacidades existentes dos utilizadores e produtores de informação sobre biodiversidade, fomos capazes de conceber em conjunto vários indicadores de biodiversidade e priorizar dois deles para implementação total, garantindo que os dados sejam localizáveis, acessíveis, interoperáveis ​​e reutilizáveis, de acordo com os princípios FAIR. Esta abordagem ajudou a resolver as limitações identificadas no processo de envolvimento das partes interessadas; incluindo lacunas na disponibilidade de dados e a necessidade de informações mais acessíveis sobre biodiversidade. Além disso, foram incorporados workshops de capacitação para todos os produtores de informação sobre biodiversidade envolvidos, que visaram não só melhorar o fluxo actual de informação sobre biodiversidade na região, mas também facilitar a sua sustentabilidade futura. A nossa abordagem pode servir como um modelo valioso para incorporar informações sobre biodiversidade e torná-las mais inclusivas no futuro; especialmente se considerarmos as diversas perspectivas globais, valores e sistemas de conhecimento envolvidos nas interações entre ciência, política e sua aplicação prática