53 research outputs found

    Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States

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    Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration. © 2023 the Author(s)

    Fracture in the Elderly Multidisciplinary Rehabilitation (FEMuR): study protocol for a phase II randomised feasibility study of a multidisciplinary rehabilitation package following hip fracture

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    Objective: To conduct a rigorous feasibility study for a future definitive parallel-group randomised controlled trial (RCT) and economic evaluation of an enhanced rehabilitation package for hip fracture.Setting: Recruitment from 3 acute hospitals in North Wales. Intervention delivery in the community.Participants: Older adults (aged ≥65) who received surgical treatment for hip fracture, lived independently prior to fracture, had mental capacity (assessed by clinical team) and received rehabilitation in the North Wales area.Intervention: Remote randomisation to usual care (control) or usual care+enhanced rehabilitation package (intervention), including six additional home-based physiotherapy sessions delivered by a physiotherapist or technical instructor, novel information workbook and goal-setting diary.Primary and secondary outcome measures: Primary: Barthel Activities of Daily Living (BADL). Secondary measures included Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living scale (NEADL), EQ-5D, ICECAP capability, a suite of self-efficacy, psychosocial and service-use measures and costs. Outcome measures were assessed at baseline and 3-month follow-up by blinded researchers.Results: 62 participants were recruited, 61 randomised (control 32; intervention 29) and 49 (79%) completed 3-month follow-up. Minimal differences occurred between the 2 groups for most outcomes, including BADL (adjusted mean difference 0.5). The intervention group showed a medium-sized improvement in the NEADL relative to the control group, with an adjusted mean difference between groups of 3.0 (Cohen's d 0.63), and a trend for greater improvement in self-efficacy and mental health, but with small effect sizes. The mean cost of delivering the intervention was £231 per patient. There was a small relative improvement in quality-adjusted life year in the intervention group. No serious adverse events relating to the intervention were reported.Conclusions: The trial methods were feasible in terms of eligibility, recruitment and retention. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the rehabilitation package should be tested in a phase III RCT

    Effects of Dwarf Mistletoe on Stand Structure of Lodgepole Pine Forests 21-28 Years Post-Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic in Central Oregon

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    <div><p>Lodgepole pine (<i>Pinus contorta</i>) forests are widely distributed throughout North America and are subject to mountain pine beetle (<i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i>) epidemics, which have caused mortality over millions of hectares of mature trees in recent decades. Mountain pine beetle is known to influence stand structure, and has the ability to impact many forest processes. Dwarf mistletoe (<i>Arceuthobium americanum</i>) also influences stand structure and occurs frequently in post-mountain pine beetle epidemic lodgepole pine forests. Few studies have incorporated both disturbances simultaneously although they co-occur frequently on the landscape. The aim of this study is to investigate the stand structure of lodgepole pine forests 21–28 years after a mountain pine beetle epidemic with varying levels of dwarf mistletoe infection in the Deschutes National Forest in central Oregon. We compared stand density, stand basal area, canopy volume, proportion of the stand in dominant/codominant, intermediate, and suppressed cohorts, average height and average diameter of each cohort, across the range of dwarf mistletoe ratings to address differences in stand structure. We found strong evidence of a decrease in canopy volume, suppressed cohort height, and dominant/codominant cohort diameter with increasing stand-level dwarf mistletoe rating. There was strong evidence that as dwarf mistletoe rating increases, proportion of the stand in the dominant/codominant cohort decreases while proportion of the stand in the suppressed cohort increases. Structural differences associated with variable dwarf mistletoe severity create heterogeneity in this forest type and may have a significant influence on stand productivity and the resistance and resilience of these stands to future biotic and abiotic disturbances. Our findings show that it is imperative to incorporate dwarf mistletoe when studying stand productivity and ecosystem recovery processes in lodgepole pine forests because of its potential to influence stand structure.</p></div

    Forest structures of lodgepole pine stands 21–28 years after a mountain pine beetle epidemic.

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    <p>Pictured are stands A) without dwarf mistletoe and B) with severe dwarf mistletoe and high levels of witches’ brooming.</p

    Characteristics of 39 lodgepole pine plots within 13 stands in the Deschutes National Forest, Oregon.

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    <p>Note: Data are calculated from measures of trees DBH >/ = 5.0 cm. DMR = stand-level dwarf mistletoe rating; MPB = mountain pine beetle. Productivity class was determined by previously developed plant associations for the area. MPB Mortality class was determined using Aerial Detection Survey cumulative mortality data where L = 5–15 trees/acre, M = 15–25 trees/acre, H = 25–36 trees/acre killed by mountain pine beetle over the time period of the epidemic.</p><p>Characteristics of 39 lodgepole pine plots within 13 stands in the Deschutes National Forest, Oregon.</p
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