Using Data-mining Techniques for the prediction of the severity of road crashes in Cartagena, Colombia

Objective: Analyze the road crashes in Cartagena (Colombia) and the factors associated with the collision and severity. The aim is to establish a set of rules for defining countermeasures to improve road safety. Methods: Data mining and machine learning techniques were used in 7894 traffic accidents from 2016 to 2017. The severity was determined between low (84%) and high (16%). Five classification algorithms to predict the accident severity were applied with WEKA Software (Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis). Including Decision Tree (DT-J48), Rule Induction (PART), Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Naïve Bayes (NB), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The effectiveness of each algorithm was implemented using cross-validation with 10-fold. Decision rules were defined from the results of the different methods. Results: The methods applied are consistent and similar in the overall results of precision, accuracy, recall, and area under the ROC curve. Conclusions: 12 decision rules were defined based on the methods applied. The rules defined show motorcyclists, cyclists, including pedestrians, as the most vulnerable road users. Men and women motorcyclists between 20–39 years are prone in accidents with high severity. When a motorcycle or cyclist is not involved in the accident, the probable severity is low

Severity dependent distribution of impairments in PSP and CBS: Interactive visualizations

BACKGROUND: Progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) -Richardson's Syndrome and Corticobasal Syndrome (CBS) are the two classic clinical syndromes associated with underlying four repeat (4R) tau pathology. The PSP Rating Scale is a commonly used assessment in PSP clinical trials; there is an increasing interest in designing combined 4R tauopathy clinical trials involving both CBS and PSP. OBJECTIVES: To determine contributions of each domain of the PSP Rating Scale to overall severity and characterize the probable sequence of clinical progression of PSP as compared to CBS. METHODS: Multicenter clinical trial and natural history study data were analyzed from 545 patients with PSP and 49 with CBS. Proportional odds models were applied to model normalized cross-sectional PSP Rating Scale, estimating the probability that a patient would experience impairment in each domain using the PSP Rating Scale total score as the index of overall disease severity. RESULTS: The earliest symptom domain to demonstrate impairment in PSP patients was most likely to be Ocular Motor, followed jointly by Gait/Midline and Daily Activities, then Limb Motor and Mentation, and finally Bulbar. For CBS, Limb Motor manifested first and ocular showed less probability of impairment throughout the disease spectrum. An online tool to visualize predicted disease progression was developed to predict relative disability on each subscale per overall disease severity. CONCLUSION: The PSP Rating Scale captures disease severity in both PSP and CBS. Modelling how domains change in relation to one other at varying disease severities may facilitate detection of therapeutic effects in future clinical trials

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Lawson criterion for ignition exceeded in an inertial fusion experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion

Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy (4th edition)1.

In 2008, we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, this topic has received increasing attention, and many scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Thus, it is important to formulate on a regular basis updated guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Despite numerous reviews, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to evaluate autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. Here, we present a set of guidelines for investigators to select and interpret methods to examine autophagy and related processes, and for reviewers to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of reports that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a dogmatic set of rules, because the appropriateness of any assay largely depends on the question being asked and the system being used. Moreover, no individual assay is perfect for every situation, calling for the use of multiple techniques to properly monitor autophagy in each experimental setting. Finally, several core components of the autophagy machinery have been implicated in distinct autophagic processes (canonical and noncanonical autophagy), implying that genetic approaches to block autophagy should rely on targeting two or more autophagy-related genes that ideally participate in distinct steps of the pathway. Along similar lines, because multiple proteins involved in autophagy also regulate other cellular pathways including apoptosis, not all of them can be used as a specific marker for bona fide autophagic responses. Here, we critically discuss current methods of assessing autophagy and the information they can, or cannot, provide. Our ultimate goal is to encourage intellectual and technical innovation in the field

MAGIC and Fermi-LAT gamma-ray results on unassociated HAWC sources

The HAWC Collaboration released the 2HWC catalogue of TeV sources, in which 19 show no association with any known high-energy (HE; E greater than or similar to 10 GeV) or very-high-energy (VHE; E greater than or similar to 300 GeV) sources. This catalogue motivated follow-up studies by both the Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov (MAGIC) and Fermi-LAT (Large Area Telescope) observatories with the aim of investigating gamma-ray emission over a broad energy band. In this paper, we report the results from the first joint work between High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC), MAGIC, and Fermi-LAT on three unassociated HAWC sources: 2HWC J2006+341, 2HWC J1907+084*, and 2HWC J1852+013*. Although no significant detection was found in the HE and VHE regimes, this investigation shows that a minimum 1 degrees extension (at 95 per cent confidence level) and harder spectrum in the GeV than the one extrapolated from HAWC results are required in the case of 2HWC J1852+013*, whilst a simply minimum extension of 0.16 degrees (at 95 per cent confidence level) can already explain the scenario proposed by HAWC for the remaining sources. Moreover, the hypothesis that these sources are pulsar wind nebulae is also investigated in detail