Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Avaliação da religiosidade e espiritualidade dos residentes de medicina e implicações frente à prática clínica e à formação médica

Studies have shown that spiritual and religious beliefs influence health outcomes. However, there are still gaps concerning the way this evidence can be used in clinical practice. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how professionals in medical training, resident physicians for instance, approach religiosity and spirituality (R/S). The aim of this study is to evaluate the attitudes, knowledge and experiences of Brazilian resident physicians regarding R/S and its influence on clinical practice and medical training. A multicenter observational and cross-sectional study, called SBRAMER (Spirituality in Brazilian Medical Residents), was performed. Seven hospitals or training centers for resident physicians from different Brazilian regions participated in the study. The Network for Research Spirituality and Health (NERSH) questionaire and the Duke Religion Index were applied. 879 participants were included (53.5%) considering 1642 total eligible resident physicians. Medical residents considered the importance of R/S, despite not regularly attending religious services. Most participants believed R/S had an important influence on patient health 75,2% and that it was appropriate to discuss these beliefs in clinical encounters with patients 77,1%, however, only 14,4% daily approach this theme in their clinical practice. The main barriers to discussing R/S were maintaining professional neutrality 31,4%, concern about offending patients 29,1% and insufficient time 26,2%. Factors such as female gender, clinical specialty as opposed to surgical specialty, having had formal training on R/S, and higher levels of R/S were associated to a broader approach and more positive opinions about R/S. The conclusion was that Brazilian resident physicians believe that religious and spiritual beliefs may affect their patients’ health and consider it appropriate to develop this theme. However, lack of training is responsible to prevent this approach in clinical practice. Educators should draw on these data to conduct interventions and produce mandatory content on the subject in residency programs.Estudos têm demonstrado que as crenças espirituais e religiosas influenciam desfechos em saúde. Entretanto, ainda existem algumas lacunas de como essas evidências podem ser utilizadas na prática clínica e na formação médica. Dessa forma, torna-se necessário compreender como profissionais em formação, por exemplo, médicos residentes, veem o tema religiosidade e espiritualidade (R/E). Objetiva-se avaliar as atitudes, conhecimento e experiências de médicos residentes brasileiros frente ao tema R/E e sua influência na prática clínica e na formação médica. Realizouse estudo multicêntrico de caráter observacional e transversal, denominado SBRAMER (Spirituality in Brazilian Medical Residents). Participaram do estudo sete hospitais ou centros formadores de médicos residentes de diferentes regiões brasileiras. Foram aplicados os questionários do NERSH - Network for Research in Spirituality and Health (Avaliação de Religiosidade e Espiritualidade na prática clínica e formação médica) e o Duke Religion Index. De um total de 1642 médicos residentes elegíveis, foram incluídos 879 participantes (53,5%). Os residentes de medicina consideram importante suas crenças religiosas e espirituais, apesar de não irem, frequentemente, a serviços religiosos. A maioria dos participantes acredita que a R/E influencia de forma importante na saúde do paciente (75,2%) e que é apropriado abordar essas crenças (77,1%), no entanto, apenas 14,4% abordam de forma rotineira o tema em sua prática clínica. As principais barreiras apontadas foram manutenção da neutralidade profissional 31,4%, medo de ofender os pacientes 29,1% e tempo insuficiente 26,2%. Estiveram associados a maior abordagem e opiniões mais positivas em relação ao tema, fatores como o sexo feminino, especialidades clínicas, a existência de um treinamento formal em R/E e maiores níveis de R/E. Concluiu-se que os residentes médicos brasileiros acreditam que as crenças espirituais e religiosas podem impactar a saúde de seus pacientes e julgam apropriado o médico abordar esse assunto. Entretanto, a falta de treinamento é uma das principais responsáveis pelo receio de tal abordagem na prática clínica. Educadores devem estar atentos a esses dados para que possam conduzir intervenções e conteúdo obrigatório sobre essa temática nos programas de residência médica

The Effect of Exercise Order in Circuit Training on Muscular Strength and Functional Fitness in Older Women

International Journal of Exercise Science 12(4): 657-665, 2019.The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of different orders of exercises in circuit training on strength and functional fitness in older women over a 12-week period. After 10 repetition maximum (10-RM) and functional fitness baseline testing, thirty older women were randomly assigned into two groups. The exercise order for Group 1 was leg press, wide-grip lat pulldown, knee extension, pec deck fly, plantar flexion and triceps extension; Group 2 performed the same exercises, but in the opposite order: triceps extension, plantar flexion, pec deck fly, knee extension, wide-grip lat pulldown and leg press. Both groups performed the circuit three times with a load that permitted 8 to 10 repetitions per exercise set. Both groups exhibited gains in 10-RM strength and functional fitness test performance (p ≤ 0.05). In Comparing groups, the G1 presented greater strength gains for the wide-grip lat pulldown, while G2 showed higher values for the plantar flexion and triceps extension exercises (p ≤ 0.05). Both circuit exercise orders were effective and could be applied to promote strength and functional fitness gains. However, based on the results for the wide-grip lat pulldown, plantar flexion and triceps extension, it seems that exercise order should be considered when specific muscle weaknesses are a priority, so that these muscles are trained first within a circuit

Serological evidence of Eastern equine encephalitis circulation in equids in Pará state, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado Pará (FAPESPA) and Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Capes), Evandro Chagas Institute/SVS/Ministério da Saúde, grants Pro-Amazonia Nº 3286/2013Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Virologia. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Geoprocessamento. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Universidade Estadual do Pará. Curso de Graduação em Biomedicina. Marabá, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Virologia. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Virologia. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Universidade Federal do Pará. Instituto Ciências da Saúde. Belém, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Virologia. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Serum samples from 89 equids were analyzed (75 horses, 9 donkeys, and 5 mules) from the municipality of Viseu, Pará state, Brazil. Samples were collected in November 2014 and August 2015. The antibody prevalence against the following alphaviruses was estimated: Eastern equine encephalitis virus, Western equine encephalitis virus, Mucambo virus, and Mayaro virus. Seroprevalence was determined by the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) technique. Sera that exhibited HI antibodies with heterotypic reactions for the analyzed viruses were subjected to the 90% plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT90). The HI prevalence of monotypic reactions to EEEV was 7.9%, and that of WEEV was 1.1%, as confirmed by PRNT90. Viral isolation attempts were negative for all tested blood samples. Our results suggest the circulation of equine encephalitis complex viruses. Future studies should evaluate the possible involvement of arthropod hosts and residents in the viral transmission in the study are