Denial of long-term issues with agriculture on tropical peatlands will have devastating consequences

Non peer reviewe

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate

Taking the pulse of Earth's tropical forests using networks of highly distributed plots

Tropical forests are the most diverse and productive ecosystems on Earth. While better understanding of these forests is critical for our collective future, until quite recently efforts to measure and monitor them have been largely disconnected. Networking is essential to discover the answers to questions that transcend borders and the horizons of funding agencies. Here we show how a global community is responding to the challenges of tropical ecosystem research with diverse teams measuring forests tree-by-tree in thousands of long-term plots. We review the major scientific discoveries of this work and show how this process is changing tropical forest science. Our core approach involves linking long-term grassroots initiatives with standardized protocols and data management to generate robust scaled-up results. By connecting tropical researchers and elevating their status, our Social Research Network model recognises the key role of the data originator in scientific discovery. Conceived in 1999 with RAINFOR (South America), our permanent plot networks have been adapted to Africa (AfriTRON) and Southeast Asia (T-FORCES) and widely emulated worldwide. Now these multiple initiatives are integrated via ForestPlots.net cyber-infrastructure, linking colleagues from 54 countries across 24 plot networks. Collectively these are transforming understanding of tropical forests and their biospheric role. Together we have discovered how, where and why forest carbon and biodiversity are responding to climate change, and how they feedback on it. This long-term pan-tropical collaboration has revealed a large long-term carbon sink and its trends, as well as making clear which drivers are most important, which forest processes are affected, where they are changing, what the lags are, and the likely future responses of tropical forests as the climate continues to change. By leveraging a remarkably old technology, plot networks are sparking a very modern revolution in tropical forest science. In the future, humanity can benefit greatly by nurturing the grassroots communities now collectively capable of generating unique, long-term understanding of Earth's most precious forests. Resumen Los bosques tropicales son los ecosistemas más diversos y productivos del mundo y entender su funcionamiento es crítico para nuestro futuro colectivo. Sin embargo, hasta hace muy poco, los esfuerzos para medirlos y monitorearlos han estado muy desconectados. El trabajo en redes es esencial para descubrir las respuestas a preguntas que trascienden las fronteras y los plazos de las agencias de financiamiento. Aquí mostramos cómo una comunidad global está respondiendo a los desafíos de la investigación en ecosistemas tropicales a través de diversos equipos realizando mediciones árbol por árbol en miles de parcelas permanentes de largo plazo. Revisamos los descubrimientos más importantes de este trabajo y discutimos cómo este proceso está cambiando la ciencia relacionada a los bosques tropicales. El enfoque central de nuestro esfuerzo implica la conexión de iniciativas locales de largo plazo con protocolos estandarizados y manejo de datos para producir resultados que se puedan trasladar a múltiples escalas. Conectando investigadores tropicales, elevando su posición y estatus, nuestro modelo de Red Social de Investigación reconoce el rol fundamental que tienen, para el descubrimiento científico, quienes generan o producen los datos. Concebida en 1999 con RAINFOR (Suramérica), nuestras redes de parcelas permanentes han sido adaptadas en África (AfriTRON) y el sureste asiático (T-FORCES) y ampliamente replicadas en el mundo. Actualmente todas estas iniciativas están integradas a través de la ciber-infraestructura de ForestPlots.net, conectando colegas de 54 países en 24 redes diferentes de parcelas. Colectivamente, estas redes están transformando nuestro conocimiento sobre los bosques tropicales y el rol de éstos en la biósfera. Juntos hemos descubierto cómo, dónde y porqué el carbono y la biodiversidad de los bosques tropicales está respondiendo al cambio climático y cómo se retroalimentan. Esta colaboración pan-tropical de largo plazo ha expuesto un gran sumidero de carbono y sus tendencias, mostrando claramente cuáles son los factores más importantes, qué procesos se ven afectados, dónde ocurren los cambios, los tiempos de reacción y las probables respuestas futuras mientras el clima continúa cambiando. Apalancando lo que realmente es una tecnología antigua, las redes de parcelas están generando una verdadera y moderna revolución en la ciencia tropical. En el futuro, la humanidad puede beneficiarse enormemente si se nutren y cultivan comunidades de investigadores de base, actualmente con la capacidad de generar información única y de largo plazo para entender los que probablemente son los bosques más preciados de la tierra. Resumo Florestas tropicais são os ecossistemas mais diversos e produtivos da Terra. Embora uma boa compreensão destas florestas seja crucial para o nosso futuro coletivo, até muito recentemente os esforços de medições e monitoramento foram amplamente desconexos. É essencial formarmos redes para obtermos respostas que transcendem fronteiras e horizontes de agências financiadoras. Neste estudo nós mostramos como uma comunidade global está respondendo aos desafios da pesquisa de ecossistemas tropicais, com equipes diversas medindo florestas, árvore por árvore, em milhares de parcelas monitoradas à longo prazo. Nós revisamos as maiores descobertas científicas deste trabalho, e mostramos também como este processo está mudando a ciência de florestas tropicais. Nossa abordagem principal envolve unir iniciativas de base a protocolos padronizados e gerenciamento de dados a fim de gerar resultados robustos em escalas ampliadas. Ao conectar pesquisadores tropicais e elevar seus status, nosso modelo de Rede de Pesquisa Social reconhece o papel-chave do produtor dos dados na descoberta científica. Concebida em 1999 com o RAINFOR (América do Sul), nossa rede de parcelas permanentes foi adaptada para África (AfriTRON) e Sudeste asiático (T-FORCES), e tem sido extensamente reproduzida em todo o mundo. Agora estas múltiplas iniciativas estão integradas através de uma infraestrutura cibernética do ForestPlots.net, conectando colegas de 54 países de 24 redes de parcelas. Estas iniciativas estão transformando coletivamente o entendimento das florestas tropicais e seus papéis na biosfera. Juntos nós descobrimos como, onde e por que o carbono e a biodiversidade da floresta estão respondendo às mudanças climáticas, e seus efeitos de retroalimentação. Esta duradoura colaboração pantropical revelou um grande sumidouro de carbono persistente e suas tendências, assim como tem evidenciado quais direcionadores são mais importantes, quais processos florestais são mais afetados, onde eles estão mudando, seus atrasos no tempo de resposta, e as prováveis respostas das florestas tropicais conforme o clima continua a mudar. Dessa forma, aproveitando uma notável tecnologia antiga, redes de parcelas acendem faíscas de uma moderna revolução na ciência das florestas tropicais. No futuro a humanidade pode se beneficiar incentivando estas comunidades basais que agora são coletivamente capazes de gerar conhecimentos únicos e duradouros sobre as florestas mais preciosas da Terra. Résume Les forêts tropicales sont les écosystèmes les plus diversifiés et les plus productifs de la planète. Si une meilleure compréhension de ces forêts est essentielle pour notre avenir collectif, jusqu'à tout récemment, les efforts déployés pour les mesurer et les surveiller ont été largement déconnectés. La mise en réseau est essentielle pour découvrir les réponses à des questions qui dépassent les frontières et les horizons des organismes de financement. Nous montrons ici comment une communauté mondiale relève les défis de la recherche sur les écosystèmes tropicaux avec diverses équipes qui mesurent les forêts arbre après arbre dans de milliers de parcelles permanentes. Nous passons en revue les principales découvertes scientifiques de ces travaux et montrons comment ce processus modifie la science des forêts tropicales. Notre approche principale consiste à relier les initiatives de base à long terme à des protocoles standardisés et une gestion de données afin de générer des résultats solides à grande échelle. En reliant les chercheurs tropicaux et en élevant leur statut, notre modèle de réseau de recherche sociale reconnaît le rôle clé de l'auteur des données dans la découverte scientifique. Conçus en 1999 avec RAINFOR (Amérique du Sud), nos réseaux de parcelles permanentes ont été adaptés à l'Afrique (AfriTRON) et à l'Asie du Sud-Est (T-FORCES) et largement imités dans le monde entier. Ces multiples initiatives sont désormais intégrées via l'infrastructure ForestPlots.net, qui relie des collègues de 54 pays à travers 24 réseaux de parcelles. Ensemble, elles transforment la compréhension des forêts tropicales et de leur rôle biosphérique. Ensemble, nous avons découvert comment, où et pourquoi le carbone forestier et la biodiversité réagissent au changement climatique, et comment ils y réagissent. Cette collaboration pan-tropicale à long terme a révélé un important puits de carbone à long terme et ses tendances, tout en mettant en évidence les facteurs les plus importants, les processus forestiers qui sont affectés, les endroits où ils changent, les décalages et les réactions futures probables des forêts tropicales à mesure que le climat continue de changer. En tirant parti d'une technologie remarquablement ancienne, les réseaux de parcelles déclenchent une révolution très moderne dans la science des forêts tropicales. À l'avenir, l'humanité pourra grandement bénéficier du soutien des communautés de base qui sont maintenant collectivement capables de générer une compréhension unique et à long terme des forêts les plus précieuses de la Terre. Abstrak Hutan tropika adalah di antara ekosistem yang paling produktif dan mempunyai kepelbagaian biodiversiti yang tinggi di seluruh dunia. Walaupun pemahaman mengenai hutan tropika amat penting untuk masa depan kita, usaha-usaha untuk mengkaji dan mengawas hutah-hutan tersebut baru sekarang menjadi lebih diperhubungkan. Perangkaian adalah sangat penting untuk mencari jawapan kepada soalan-soalan yang menjangkaui sempadan dan batasan agensi pendanaan. Di sini kami menunjukkan bagaimana sebuah komuniti global bertindak balas terhadap cabaran penyelidikan ekosistem tropika melalui penglibatan pelbagai kumpulan yang mengukur hutan secara pokok demi pokok dalam beribu-ribu plot jangka panjang. Kami meninjau semula penemuan saintifik utama daripada kerja ini dan menunjukkan bagaimana proses ini sedang mengubah bidang sains hutan tropika. Teras pendekatan kami memberi tumpuan terhadap penghubungan inisiatif akar umbi jangka panjang dengan protokol standar serta pengurusan data untuk mendapatkan hasil skala besar yang kukuh. Dengan menghubungkan penyelidik-penyelidik tropika dan meningkatkan status mereka, model Rangkaian Penyelidikan Sosial kami mengiktiraf kepentingan peranan pengasas data dalam penemuan saintifik. Bermula dengan pengasasan RAINFOR (Amerika Selatan) pada tahun 1999, rangkaian-rangkaian plot kekal kami kemudian disesuaikan untuk Afrika (AfriTRON) dan Asia Tenggara (T-FORCES) dan selanjutnya telah banyak dicontohi di seluruh dunia. Kini, inisiatif-inisiatif tersebut disepadukan melalui infrastruktur siber ForestPlots.net yang menghubungkan rakan sekerja dari 54 negara di 24 buah rangkaian plot. Secara kolektif, rangkaian ini sedang mengubah pemahaman tentang hutan tropika dan peranannya dalam biosfera. Kami telah bekerjasama untuk menemukan bagaimana, di mana dan mengapa karbon serta biodiversiti hutan bertindak balas terhadap perubahan iklim dan juga bagaimana mereka saling bermaklum balas. Kolaborasi pan-tropika jangka panjang ini telah mendedahkan sebuah sinki karbon jangka panjang serta arah alirannya dan juga menjelaskan pemandu-pemandu perubahan yang terpenting, di mana dan bagaimana proses hutan terjejas, masa susul yang ada dan kemungkinan tindakbalas hutan tropika pada perubahan iklim secara berterusan di masa depan. Dengan memanfaatkan pendekatan lama, rangkaian plot sedang menyalakan revolusi yang amat moden dalam sains hutan tropika. Pada masa akan datang, manusia sejagat akan banyak mendapat manfaat jika memupuk komuniti-komuniti akar umbi yang kini berkemampuan secara kolektif menghasilkan pemahaman unik dan jangka panjang mengenai hutan-hutan yang paling berharga di dunia

New LiDAR‐Based Elevation Model Shows Greatest Increase in Global Coastal Exposure to Flooding to Be Caused by Early‐Stage Sea‐Level Rise

Abstract The latest projections indicate that sea‐level rise (SLR) is certain to exceed 2 m in coming centuries, and a rise by 4 m is considered possible. Radar‐based land elevation models applied to date suggest that the increase of area below mean sea level, that is potentially exposed to permanent flooding, will accelerate as SLR proceeds, being relatively limited initially. However, applying new and more accurate satellite LiDAR elevation data we find the opposite pattern, with the fastest increase in the area of exposed land occurring in the early stages of SLR. In one‐third of countries most of this increase will be caused by the first meter of SLR and in nearly all within the first 2 m. We conclude that in many regions the time available to prepare for increased exposure to flooding may be considerably less than assumed to date, and that better elevation data will support timely preparations. The global LiDAR lowland DTM (GLL_DTM_v2) elevation data set developed for this assessment is available in the public domain

Hydrological and economic effects of oil palm cultivation in Indonesian peatlands

Oil palm has increasingly been established on peatlands throughout Indonesia. One of the concerns is that the drainage required for cultivating oil palm in peatlands leads to soil subsidence, potentially increasing future flood risks. This study analyzes the hydrological and economic effects of oil palm production in a peat landscape in Central Kalimantan. We examine two land use scenarios, one involving conversion of the complete landscape including a large peat area to oil palm plantations, and another involving mixed land use including oil palm plantations, jelutung (jungle rubber; (Dyera spp.) plantations, and natural forest. The hydrological effect was analyzed through flood risk modeling using a high-resolution digital elevation model. For the economic analysis, we analyzed four ecosystem services: oil palm production, jelutung production, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat. This study shows that after 100 years, in the oil palm scenario, about 67% of peat in the study area will be subject to regular flooding. The flood-prone area will be unsuitable for oil palm and other crops requiring drained soils. The oil palm scenario is the most profitable only in the short term and when the externalities of oil palm production, i.e., the costs of CO2emissions, are not considered. In the examined scenarios, the social costs of carbon emissions exceed the private benefits from oil palm plantations in peat. Depending upon the local hydrology, income from jelutung, which can sustainably be grown in undrained conditions and does not lead to soil subsidence, outweighs that from oil palm after several decades. These findings illustrate the trade-offs faced at present in Indonesian peatland management and point to economic advantages of an approach that involves expansion of oil palm on mineral lands while conserving natural peat forests and using degraded peat for crops that do not require drainage.</p

From carbon sink to carbon source: extensive peat oxidation in insular Southeast Asia since 1990

Tropical peatlands of the western part of insular Southeast Asia have experienced extensive land cover changes since 1990. Typically involving drainage, these land cover changes have resulted in increased peat oxidation in the upper peat profile. In this paper we provide current (2015) and cumulative carbon emissions estimates since 1990 from peat oxidation in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo, utilizing newly published peatland land cover information and the recently agreed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) peat oxidation emission values for tropical peatland areas. Our results highlight the change of one of the Earth's most efficient long-term carbon sinks to a short-term emission source, with cumulative carbon emissions since 1990 estimated to have been in the order of 2.5 Gt C. Current (2015) levels of emissions are estimated at around 146 Mt C yr-1, with a range of 132-159 Mt C yr-1 depending on the selection of emissions factors for different land cover types. 44% (or 64 Mt C yr-1) of the emissions come from industrial plantations (mainly oil palm and Acacia pulpwood), followed by 34% (49 Mt C yr-1) of emissions from small-holder areas. Thus, altogether 78% of current peat oxidation emissions come from managed land cover types. Although based on the latest information, these estimates may still include considerable, yet currently unquantifiable, uncertainties (e.g. due to uncertainties in the extent of peatlands and drainage networks) which need to be focused on in future research. In comparison, fire induced carbon dioxide emissions over the past ten years for the entire equatorial Southeast Asia region have been estimated to average 122 Mt C yr-1 (www.globalfiredata.org/-index.html). The results emphasise that whilst reducing emissions from peat fires is important, urgent efforts are also needed to mitigate the constantly high level of emissions arising from peat drainage, regardless of fire occurrence

Tropical Peatland Burn Depth and Combustion Heterogeneity Assessed Using UAV Photogrammetry and Airborne LiDAR

We provide the first assessment of tropical peatland depth of burn (DoB) using structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry, applied to imagery collected using a low-cost, low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) system operated over a 5.2 ha tropical peatland in Jambi Province on Sumatra, Indonesia. Tropical peat soils are the result of thousands of years of dead biomass accumulation, and when burned are globally significant net sources of carbon emissions. The El Niño year of 2015 saw huge areas of Indonesia affected by tropical peatland fires, more so than any year since 1997. However, the Depth of Burn (DoB) of these 2015 fires has not been assessed, and indeed has only previously been assessed in few tropical peatland burns in Kalimantan. Therefore, DoB remains arguably the largest uncertainty when undertaking fire emissions calculations in these tropical peatland environments. We apply a SfM photogrammetric methodology to map this DoB metric, and also investigate combustion heterogeneity using orthomosaic photography collected using the UAV system. We supplement this information with pre-burn airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, reducing uncertainty by estimating pre-burn soil height more accurately than from interpolation of adjacent unburned areas alone. Our pre-and post-fire Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) show accuracies of 0.04 and 0.05 m (root-mean-square error, RMSE) respectively, compared to ground-based global navigation satellite system (GNSS) surveys. Our final DoB map of a 5.2 ha degraded peat swamp forest area neighboring Berbak National Park (Sumatra, Indonesia) shows burn depths extending from close to zero to over 1 m, with a mean (±1σ) DoB of 0.23 ± 0.19 m. This lies well within the range found by the few other studies available (on Kalimantan; none are available on Sumatra). Our combustion heterogeneity analysis suggests the deepest burns, which extend to ~1.3 m, occur around tree roots. We use these DoB data within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default equation for fire emissions to estimate mean carbon emissions as 134 ± 29 t·C∙ha−1 for this peatland fire, which is in an area that had not had a recorded fire previously. This is amongst the highest per unit area fuel consumption anywhere in the world for landscape fires. Our approach provides significant uncertainty reductions in such emissions calculations via the reduction in DoB uncertainty, and by using the UAV SfM approach this is accomplished at a fraction of the cost of airborne LiDAR—albeit over limited sized areas at present. Deploying this approach at locations across Indonesia, sampling a variety of fire-affected landscapes, would provide new and important DoB statistics for producing optimized carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates from peatland fires

Mapping deep peat carbon stock from a LiDAR based DTM and field measurements, with application to eastern Sumatra.

BACKGROUND:Reduction of carbon emissions from peatlands is recognized as an important factor in global climate change mitigation. Within the SE Asia region, areas of deeper peat present the greatest carbon stocks, and therefore the greatest potential for future carbon emissions from degradation and fire. They also support most of the remaining lowland swamp forest and its associated biodiversity. Accurate maps of deep peat are central to providing correct estimates of peat carbon stocks and to facilitating appropriate management interventions. We present a rapid and cost-effective approach to peat thickness mapping in raised peat bogs that applies a model of peat bottom elevation based on field measurements subtracted from a surface elevation model created from airborne LiDAR data. RESULTS:In two raised peat bog test areas in Indonesia, we find that field peat thickness measurements correlate well with surface elevation derived from airborne LiDAR based DTMs (R2 0.83-0.88), confirming that the peat bottom is often relatively flat. On this basis, we created a map of extent and depth of deep peat (> 3 m) from a new DTM that covers two-thirds of Sumatran peatlands, applying a flat peat bottom of 0.61 m +MSL determined from the average of 2446 field measurements. A deep peat area coverage of 2.6 Mha or 60.1% of the total peat area in eastern Sumatra is mapped, suggesting that deep peat in this region is more common than shallow peat and its extent was underestimated in earlier maps. The associated deep peat carbon stock range is 9.0-11.5 Pg C in eastern Sumatra alone. CONCLUSION:We discuss how the deep peat map may be used to identify priority areas for peat and forest conservation and thereby help prevent major potential future carbon emissions and support the safeguarding of the remaining forest and biodiversity. We propose rapid application of this method to other coastal raised bog peatland areas in SE Asia in support of improved peatland zoning and management. We demonstrate that the upcoming global ICESat-2 and GEDI satellite LiDAR coverage will likely result in a global DTM that, within a few years, will be sufficiently accurate for this application

Creating a Lowland and Peatland Landscape Digital Terrain Model (DTM) from Interpolated Partial Coverage LiDAR Data for Central Kalimantan and East Sumatra, Indonesia

Coastal lowland areas support much of the world population on only a small part of its terrestrial surface. Yet these areas face rapidly increasing land surface subsidence and flooding, and are most vulnerable to future sea level rise. The accurate and up to date digital terrain models (DTMs) that are required to predict and manage such risks are absent in many of the areas affected, especially in regions where populations are least developed economically and may be least resilient to such changes. Airborne LiDAR is widely seen as the most accurate data type for elevation mapping but can be prohibitively expensive, as are detailed field surveys across a broad geographic scale. We present an economical method that utilizes airborne LiDAR data along parallel flight lines (&#8216;strips&#8217;) covering between 10% and 35% of the land depending on terrain characteristics, and manual interpolation. We present results for lowland areas in Central Kalimantan and East Sumatra (Indonesia), for which no accurate DTM currently exists. The study areas are covered with forest, plantations and agricultural land, on mineral soils and peatlands. The method is shown to yield DTM differences within 0.5 m, relative to full coverage LiDAR data, for 87.7&#8211;96.4% of the land surface in a range of conditions in 15 validation areas, and within 1.0 m for 99.3% of the area overall. After testing, the method was then applied to the entire eastern coastal zone of Sumatra, yielding a DTM at 100 m spatial resolution covering 7.1 Mha of lowland area from 1.45 Mha of effective LiDAR coverage. The DTM shows that 36.3%, or 2.6 Mha, of this area is below 2 m +MSL and, therefore, at risk of flooding in the near future as sea level rise continues. This DTM product is available for use in flood risk mapping, peatland mapping and other applications