Real exchange rate volatility, economic growth and the euro

This paper studies the impact of real effective exchange rate volatility on economic growth as well as the euro’s impact on real effective exchange rate volatility. We first show that after a plausible endogeneity correction, real effective exchange rate volatility is negatively associated with growth in a 1980~2011 panel of the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. A one standard deviation volatility decrease is associated with a two percentage points growth increase. Second, we find that the euro adoption was associated with a decline of 0.4 standard deviations in long-run real effective exchange rate volatility before the Great Recession in 2008~2009. Moreover, while the Great Recession increased real effective exchange rate volatility by 38~189% of the sample mean for the countries outside the eurozone, the real effective exchange rate of the euro adopters were almost completely insulated. We conclude that real effective exchange rate stability may be growth-enhancing in the OECD countries and that the euro have played a growth-enhancing role at least before the recent eurozone debt crisis

The diversity and evolution of chelicerate hemocyanins

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Oxygen transport in the hemolymph of many arthropod species is facilitated by large copper-proteins referred to as hemocyanins. Arthropod hemocyanins are hexamers or oligomers of hexamers, which are characterized by a high O₂transport capacity and a high cooperativity, thereby enhancing O₂supply. Hemocyanin subunit sequences had been available from horseshoe crabs (Xiphosura) and various spiders (Araneae), but not from any other chelicerate taxon. To trace the evolution of hemocyanins and the emergence of the large hemocyanin oligomers, hemocyanin cDNA sequences were obtained from representatives of selected chelicerate classes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Hemocyanin subunits from a sea spider, a scorpion, a whip scorpion and a whip spider were sequenced. Hemocyanin has been lost in Opiliones, Pseudoscorpiones, Solifugae and Acari, which may be explained by the evolution of trachea (i.e., taxon Apulmonata). Bayesian phylogenetic analysis was used to reconstruct the evolution of hemocyanin subunits and a relaxed molecular clock approach was applied to date the major events. While the sea spider has a simple hexameric hemocyanin, four distinct subunit types evolved before Xiphosura and Arachnida diverged around 470 Ma ago, suggesting the existence of a 4 × 6mer at that time. Subsequently, independent gene duplication events gave rise to the other distinct subunits in each of the 8 × 6mer hemocyanin of Xiphosura and the 4 × 6mer of Arachnida. The hemocyanin sequences were used to infer the evolutionary history of chelicerates. The phylogenetic trees support a basal position of Pycnogonida, a sister group relationship of Xiphosura and Arachnida, and a sister group relationship of the whip scorpions and the whip spiders.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Formation of a complex hemocyanin oligomer commenced early in the evolution of euchelicerates. A 4 × 6mer hemocyanin consisting of seven subunit types is conserved in most arachnids since more than 400 Ma, although some entelegyne spiders display selective subunit loss and independent oligomerization. Hemocyanins also turned out to be a good marker to trace chelicerate evolution, which is, however, limited by the loss of hemocyanin in some taxa. The molecular clock calculations were in excellent agreement with the fossil record, also demonstrating the applicability of hemocyanins for such approach.</p

Sovereign Default Risk, Overconfident Investors and Diverse Beliefs: Theory and Evidence from a New Dataset on Outstanding Credit Default Swaps

In standard public finance theory a government’s cost of borrowing depends on the common beliefs held by rational investors regarding default risk. We advance understanding of the effects of diverse beliefs and overconfidence among investors in their ability to assess the sovereign’s creditworthiness. Theoretically, we find that demand for insurance against default is positively related to the absolute difference between the market price of sovereign risk and the risk forecasted by the economy’s fundamentals. We find preliminary support for this prediction in a newly available dataset on sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs): after controlling for the size of the public debt, the absolute size of the gap between the actual and forecasted spreads is positively related to the value of outstanding CDSs

Prothrombin complex concentrate versus placebo, no intervention, or other interventions in critically bleeding patients associated with oral anticoagulant administration: a protocol for a systematic review of randomised clinical trials with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis

Background: Acute critical bleeding is one of the most feared complications during treatment with oral anticoagulating agents. As more patients undergo treatment with anticoagulating agents, critically bleeding episodes in patients with vitamin K antagonists, thrombin inhibitor, or factor Xa inhibitor-inducted coagulopathy will be encountered frequently by physicians. Hence, an effective treatment capable of reversing the iatrogenic coagulopathy in the acute setting is needed. In randomised clinical trials and observational studies, prothrombin complex concentrate has been reported to be superior to other acute interventions, and many guidelines recommend prothrombin complex concentrate in treatment of critically bleeding patients. The aim of this systematic review is to synthesise the evidence of the effects of prothrombin complex concentrate compared with placebo, no intervention, or other treatment options in critically bleeding patients treated with oral anticoagulants. Methods/design: A comprehensive search for relevant published literature will be undertaken in Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Embase, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, Science Citation Index, regulatory databases, and trial registers. We will include randomised clinical trials comparing prothrombin complex concentrate versus placebo, no intervention, or other interventions in critically bleeding patients with oral anticoagulant-induced coagulopathy. Data extraction and risk of bias assessment will be handled by two independent review authors. Meta-analysis will be performed as recommended by Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions, bias will be assessed with domains, and trial sequential analysis will be conducted to control random errors. Certainty will be assessed by GRADE. Discussion: As critical bleeding in patients treated with oral anticoagulants is an increasing problem, an up-to-date systematic review evaluating the benefits and harms of prothrombin complex concentrate is urgently needed. It is the hope that this review will be able to guide best practice in treatment and clinical research of these critically bleeding patients. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO CRD4201808437

Tranexamic Acid for Prevention of Hematoma Expansion in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Patients With or Without Spot Sign

Background and Purpose:The computed tomography angiography or contrast-enhanced computed tomography based spot sign has been proposed as a biomarker for identifying on-going hematoma expansion in patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage. We investigated, if spot-sign positive participants benefit more from tranexamic acid versus placebo as compared to spot-sign negative participants.Methods:TICH-2 trial (Tranexamic Acid for Hyperacute Primary Intracerebral Haemorrhage) was a randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial recruiting acutely hospitalized participants with intracerebral hemorrhage within 8 hours after symptom onset. Local investigators randomized participants to 2 grams of intravenous tranexamic acid or matching placebo (1:1). All participants underwent computed tomography scan on admission and on day 2 (24±12 hours) after randomization. In this sub group analysis, we included all participants from the main trial population with imaging allowing adjudication of spot sign status.Results:Of the 2325 TICH-2 participants, 254 (10.9%) had imaging allowing for spot-sign adjudication. Of these participants, 64 (25.2%) were spot-sign positive. Median (interquartile range) time from symptom onset to administration of the intervention was 225.0 (169.0 to 310.0) minutes. The adjusted percent difference in absolute day-2 hematoma volume between participants allocated to tranexamic versus placebo was 3.7% (95% CI, −12.8% to 23.4%) for spot-sign positive and 1.7% (95% CI, −8.4% to 12.8%) for spot-sign negative participants (Pheterogenity=0.85). No difference was observed in significant hematoma progression (dichotomous composite outcome) between participants allocated to tranexamic versus placebo among spot-sign positive (odds ratio, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.29 to 2.46]) and negative (odds ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.41 to 1.45]) participants (Pheterogenity=0.88).Conclusions:Data from the TICH-2 trial do not support that admission spot sign status modifies the treatment effect of tranexamic acid versus placebo in patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage. The results might have been affected by low statistical power as well as treatment delay.REGISTRATION:URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com; Unique identifier: ISRCTN93732214

Prevention of haematoma progression by tranexamic acid in intracerebral haemorrhage patients with and without spot sign on admission scan: a statistical analysis plan of a pre-specified sub-study of the TICH-2 trial

Objective We present the statistical analysis plan of a prespecified Tranexamic Acid for Hyperacute Primary Intracerebral Haemorrhage (TICH)-2 sub-study aiming to investigate, if tranexamic acid has a different effect in intracerebral haemorrhage patients with the spot sign on admission compared to spot sign negative patients. The TICH-2 trial recruited above 2000 participants with intracerebral haemorrhage arriving in hospital within 8 h after symptom onset. They were included irrespective of radiological signs of on-going haematoma expansion. Participants were randomised to tranexamic acid versus matching placebo. In this subgroup analysis, we will include all participants in TICH-2 with a computed tomography angiography on admission allowing adjudication of the participants’ spot sign status. Results Primary outcome will be the ability of tranexamic acid to limit absolute haematoma volume on computed tomography at 24 h (± 12 h) after randomisation among spot sign positive and spot sign negative participants, respectively. Within all outcome measures, the effect of tranexamic acid in spot sign positive/negative participants will be compared using tests of interaction. This sub-study will investigate the important clinical hypothesis that spot sign positive patients might benefit more from administration of tranexamic acid compared to spot sign negative patients

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements