Children’s and adolescents’ rising animal-source food intakes in 1990–2018 were impacted by age, region, parental education and urbanicity

Animal-source foods (ASF) provide nutrition for children and adolescents’ physical and cognitive development. Here, we use data from the Global Dietary Database and Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify global, regional and national ASF intakes between 1990 and 2018 by age group across 185 countries, representing 93% of the world’s child population. Mean ASF intake was 1.9 servings per day, representing 16% of children consuming at least three daily servings. Intake was similar between boys and girls, but higher among urban children with educated parents. Consumption varied by age from 0.6 at <1 year to 2.5 servings per day at 15–19 years. Between 1990 and 2018, mean ASF intake increased by 0.5 servings per week, with increases in all regions except sub-Saharan Africa. In 2018, total ASF consumption was highest in Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, and lowest in Uganda, India, Kenya and Bangladesh. These findings can inform policy to address malnutrition through targeted ASF consumption programmes.publishedVersio

Incident type 2 diabetes attributable to suboptimal diet in 184 countries

The global burden of diet-attributable type 2 diabetes (T2D) is not well established. This risk assessment model estimated T2D incidence among adults attributable to direct and body weight-mediated effects of 11 dietary factors in 184 countries in 1990 and 2018. In 2018, suboptimal intake of these dietary factors was estimated to be attributable to 14.1 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.8–14.4 million) incident T2D cases, representing 70.3% (68.8–71.8%) of new cases globally. Largest T2D burdens were attributable to insufficient whole-grain intake (26.1% (25.0–27.1%)), excess refined rice and wheat intake (24.6% (22.3–27.2%)) and excess processed meat intake (20.3% (18.3–23.5%)). Across regions, highest proportional burdens were in central and eastern Europe and central Asia (85.6% (83.4–87.7%)) and Latin America and the Caribbean (81.8% (80.1–83.4%)); and lowest proportional burdens were in South Asia (55.4% (52.1–60.7%)). Proportions of diet-attributable T2D were generally larger in men than in women and were inversely correlated with age. Diet-attributable T2D was generally larger among urban versus rural residents and higher versus lower educated individuals, except in high-income countries, central and eastern Europe and central Asia, where burdens were larger in rural residents and in lower educated individuals. Compared with 1990, global diet-attributable T2D increased by 2.6 absolute percentage points (8.6 million more cases) in 2018, with variation in these trends by world region and dietary factor. These findings inform nutritional priorities and clinical and public health planning to improve dietary quality and reduce T2D globally.publishedVersio

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Incident type 2 diabetes attributable to suboptimal diet in 184 countries

The global burden of diet-attributable type 2 diabetes (T2D) is not well established. This risk assessment model estimated T2D incidence among adults attributable to direct and body weight-mediated effects of 11 dietary factors in 184 countries in 1990 and 2018. In 2018, suboptimal intake of these dietary factors was estimated to be attributable to 14.1 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.8–14.4 million) incident T2D cases, representing 70.3% (68.8–71.8%) of new cases globally. Largest T2D burdens were attributable to insufficient whole-grain intake (26.1% (25.0–27.1%)), excess refined rice and wheat intake (24.6% (22.3–27.2%)) and excess processed meat intake (20.3% (18.3–23.5%)). Across regions, highest proportional burdens were in central and eastern Europe and central Asia (85.6% (83.4–87.7%)) and Latin America and the Caribbean (81.8% (80.1–83.4%)); and lowest proportional burdens were in South Asia (55.4% (52.1–60.7%)). Proportions of diet-attributable T2D were generally larger in men than in women and were inversely correlated with age. Diet-attributable T2D was generally larger among urban versus rural residents and higher versus lower educated individuals, except in high-income countries, central and eastern Europe and central Asia, where burdens were larger in rural residents and in lower educated individuals. Compared with 1990, global diet-attributable T2D increased by 2.6 absolute percentage points (8.6 million more cases) in 2018, with variation in these trends by world region and dietary factor. These findings inform nutritional priorities and clinical and public health planning to improve dietary quality and reduce T2D globally

Multi-steps integrated mathematical MCDM model for construction material selection of Addis Ababa high-rise building infrastructure

ABSTRACTThe construction industry is confronted by resource constraints. It affects the initial costs and environment that requires resource and method optimization. The objective of the research is to design a mathematical MCDM model that would enable to select economically and ecologically suitable building material. To achieve this, the researcher designed, evaluated, and selected the suitable concrete grade using a combined mathematical MCDM. The objective sampling technique is used in Addis Ababa to collect samples of high-rise structures and materials. The study used objective-weighed MCDM and fuzzy-AHP to create specific concrete grades. The amount of the objective was fitted by 95% sensitivity analysis cost and quantity of concrete using a combination of MCDM, linear programming, and Monte Carlo simulation. The result demonstrates that, although the unit cost of concrete increased as strength grew, the project’s overall cost was reduced by reducing the project quantities. It will also add more space with environmentally friendly, sustainable structures. In conclusion, the integrated mathematical MCDM model is a helpful tool for selecting urban structure cost-effective material

Dietary behavior, food and nutrient intake of women do not change during pregnancy in Southern Ethiopia

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Interferon-g-Inducible Protein 10 (IP-10) Kinetics after Antiretroviral Treatment Initiation in Ethiopian Adults with HIV

Interferon-g-inducible protein 10 (IP-10) has been suggested as a marker for targeted viral load (VL) monitoring during antiretroviral treatment (ART). We aimed to determine the kinetics of IP-10 during the initial year of ART, with particular regard to the impact of tuberculosis (TB) co-infection on IP-10 secretion. Longitudinal plasma IP-10 levels were quantified in 112 treatment-naive HIV-positive adults at Ethiopian health centers, through enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) using samples obtained before and during the initial 12 months of ART. All participants underwent bacteriological TB investigation before starting ART. In virological responders (VRs; defined as VL, 150 copies/ml with no subsequent VL $ 1,000 copies/ml), IP-10 kinetics were analyzed using linear regression models. Among 91/112 (81.3%) participants classified as VRs, 17 (18.7%) had concomitant TB. Median baseline IP-10 was 650 pg/ml (interquartile range [IQR], 428–1,002) in VRs. IP-10 decline was more rapid during the first month of ART (median 306 pg/ml/month) compared with later time intervals (median 7-48 pg/ml/month, P, 0.001 in each comparison). Although VRs with TB had higher IP-10 levels at baseline (median 1106 pg/ml [IQR, 627–1,704]), compared with individuals without TB (median 628 pg/ml [IQR, 391–885]; P = 0.003), the rate of IP-10 decline during ART was similar, regardless of TB-status. During the initial year of ART, IP-10 kinetics followed a biphasic pattern in VRs, with a more rapid decline in the first month of ART compared with later time intervals. Baseline IP-10 was higher in individuals with TB versus individuals without TB, but the kinetics during ART were similar. IMPORTANCE To reach the goal of elimination of HIV as public health threat, access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) has to be further scaled up. To ensure viral suppression in individuals receiving ART, novel and robust systems for treatment monitoring are required. Targeting viral load monitoring to identify individuals at increased likelihood of treatment failure, using screening tools, could be an effective use of limited resources for viral load testing. Interferon-g-inducible protein 10 (IP-10), a host inflammation mediator, has shown potential for this purpose. Here, we have investigated IP-10 kinetics in Ethiopian adults with HIV during the initial year after ART initiation. IP-10 levels decreased in parallel with viral load during ART, and prevalent tuberculosis at ART initiation did not influence IP-10 kinetics. This study shows satisfactory performance for IP-10 as a surrogate marker for viral load in persons starting ART, with no influence of concomitant tuberculosis

Food systems for healthier diets in Ethiopia : toward a research agenda

While dietary energy supply has improved, diets in Ethiopia remain low in diversity and provide insufficient amounts of protein, vitamin A, and zinc. Poor dietary quality contributes to the multiple burden of malnutrition in the country, with 38% stunting among children under five years and 24% anemia and 8% overweight among adult women.Recent Ethiopian government policies and programs call for sustainable food systems approaches aimed at achieving better nutrition for all. Such food systems approaches imply actions that include but also go beyond agriculture to consider the many processes and actors involved in food production, processing, storage, transportation, trade, transformation, retailing, and consumption.In this paper, we identify research streams to support the operationalizing of such food systems approaches in Ethiopia. To this end, we engaged with stakeholders, reviewed the literature, and applied a food systems framework to research priorities in the Ethiopian context. We develop an initial food systems profile of Ethiopia and identify 25 priority research questions, categorized into three main areas. A first area focuses on diagnosis and foresight research, for example, to further characterize dietary gaps and transitions in the context of the variety of Ethiopian settings, and to understand and anticipate which food system dynamics contribute positively or negatively to those trends. A second area includes implementation research and focuses on building a base of evidence on the dietary impact of combined demand-, market-, and supply-side interventions/innovations that focus on nonstaples; potential trade-offs in terms of economic, social, and environmental outcomes; and interactions between food system actors. A third area focuses on institutional and policy processes and explores enabling factors and private or public anchors that can take food systems approaches for healthier diets to a regional or national scale.The paper contextualizes the case of Ethiopia within global food systems thinking and thereby aims to stimulate in- and cross-country learning