1,680 research outputs found
The Effect Of Umbilical Cord Milking In Reducing ROP Of Preterm Babies.
Background: Recent advances in neonatal care in the last decade have improved the survival rates for premature infants. Consequently, the incidence of ROP has increased in parallel. ROP is under constant epidemiological study around the world. Prematurity, low birth weight, respiratory distress syndrome, mechanical ventilation, prolonged oxygen treatment and blood transfusion increase the risk of ROP. Umbilical cord milking reduces the incidence of ROP in preterm infants by reducing the need for blood transfusions in preterm infants. Objective: To observe effect of ROP with umbilical cord milking. Methodology: This prospective observational study was carried out on neonates, in the Department of Neonatology, BSMMU after approval from IRB. Neonates admitted into neonatal intensive care unit of BSMMU satisfying the inclusion and exclusion criteria was enrolled for the study. A written informed consent was taken from parents and assurance about confidentiality was given. Neonates born before 37 weeks of gestation was assigned to either umbilical cord milking or non-milking group at a 1: 1 ratio according to a computer generated randomized sequence. After delivery of a baby umbilical cord milking was performed by holding the infant at the level of the placenta. First eye evaluation for ROP was done at 20 days of age for gestational age less than 30weeks & weight below 1200gm & at 30 days of age for gestational age more than 30 weeks & above weight 1200gm. Follow-up was continued until retinal vascularization was completed. The follow-up schedules were organized depending on the retinal findings. The retinal finding was evaluated according to the International Classification of Retinopathy of Prematurity. The patients were grouped as no ROP, mild ROP (stages I-II ROP without plus disease, showed regression), and severe ROP (zone 1 or zone 2, stage III, aggressive ROP without stages, stage II with plus disease who required treatment). Data were recorded in a preformed questionnaire and data were analyzed by statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 20. Results: 114 newborns were enrolled in this study. Then among 114 preterm neonates 57 were randomized to umbilical cord milking group and 57 were randomized to no milking group. Baseline characteristics were almost similar between the two groups. There were significant increase is hematocrit level 57.3 ±3.5 V 47.4 ± 4.5 (P value less than 0.001), reduction in need of blood transfusion 3.5% V 42.1% (P value less than 0.001) & reduction in ROP 3.5% V 19.3% (P 0.007). Conclusion: This study concluded that umbilical cord milking after delivery improves hematocrit level, reduces need of blood transfusion & reduces the incidence of ROP in preterm infant
Efficacy of expressed breast milk alone or in combination with paracetamol in reducing pain during retinopathy of prematurity screening: A randomized controlled trial
Background: The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of expressed breast milk (EBM) alone or in combination with oral paracetamol for pain reduction during retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) screening.
Methods: A randomized control trial was conducted in two departments of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University. A total of 60 preterm neonates who underwent ROP screening were randomized into three equal groups. Group A got nesting and swaddling as per institutional protocol (control). Group B received 2 ml EBM two minutes prior to the ROP screening and Group C received 15 mg/kg syrup paracetamol 30 minutes prior to the ROP screening and EBM like Group B. Premature infant pain profile (PIPP) scores was used prior, during and 2 minutes after ROP screening procedure.
Results: The three groups were similar in terms of baseline characteristics. The mean (standard deviation) PIPP scores during the procedure were 16.4 (1.1), 15.0 (1.8) and 13.4 (1.8) in control, EBM, and EBM with paracetamol groups respectively. The PIPP scores were significantly lower in the EBM and EBM with paracetamol groups during the procedure compared to control group. In the EBM and EBM with paracetamol groups, the mean difference in PIPP scores (between before and during the procedure) was also substantially lower.
Conclusion: Breast milk alone or in combination with paracetamol can reduce significant pain during ROP screening than control group.
Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University Journal 2023;16(2): 106-11
Use of hydrophilic and hydrophobic polymers for the development of controlled release tizanidine matrix tablets
The aim of the present study was to develop tizanidine controlled release matrix. Formulations were designed using central composite method with the help of design expert version 7.0 software. Avicel pH 101 in the range of 14-50% was used as a filler, while HPMC K4M and K100M in the range of 25-55%, Ethylcellulose 10 ST and 10FP in the range of 15 - 45% and Kollidon SR in the range of 25-60% were used as controlled release agents in designing different formulations. Various physical parameters including powder flow for blends and weight variation, thickness, hardness, friability, disintegration time and in-vitro release were tested for tablets. Assay of tablets were also performed as specified in USP 35 NF 32. Physical parameters of both powder blend and compressed tablets such as compressibility index, angle of repose, weight variation, thickness, hardness, friability, disintegration time and assay were evaluated and found to be satisfactory for formulations K4M2, K4M3, K4M9, K100M2, K100M3, K100M9, E10FP2, E10FP9, KSR2, KSR3 & KSR9. In vitro dissolution study was conducted in 900 ml of 0.1N HCl, phosphate buffer pH 4.5 and 6.8 medium using USP Apparatus II. In vitro release profiles indicated that formulations prepared with Ethocel 10 standard were unable to control the release of drug while formulations K4M2, K100M9, E10FP2 & KSR2 having polymer content ranging from 40-55% showed a controlled drug release pattern in the above mentioned medium. Zero-order drug release kinetics was observed for formulations K4M2, K100M9, E10FP2 & KSR2. Similarity test (f2) results for K4M2, E10FP2 & KSR2 were found to be comparable with reference formulation K100M9. Response Surface plots were also prepared for evaluating the effect of independent variable on the responses. Stability study was performed as per ICH guidelines and the calculated shelf life was 24-30 months for formulation K4M2, K100M9 and E10FP2
Bi-allelic genetic variants in the translational GTPases GTPBP1 and GTPBP2 cause a distinct identical neurodevelopmental syndrome
: The homologous genes GTPBP1 and GTPBP2 encode GTP-binding proteins 1 and 2, which are involved in ribosomal homeostasis. Pathogenic variants in GTPBP2 were recently shown to be an ultra-rare cause of neurodegenerative or neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs). Until now, no human phenotype has been linked to GTPBP1. Here, we describe individuals carrying bi-allelic GTPBP1 variants that display an identical phenotype with GTPBP2 and characterize the overall spectrum of GTP-binding protein (1/2)-related disorders. In this study, 20 individuals from 16 families with distinct NDDs and syndromic facial features were investigated by whole-exome (WES) or whole-genome (WGS) sequencing. To assess the functional impact of the identified genetic variants, semi-quantitative PCR, western blot, and ribosome profiling assays were performed in fibroblasts from affected individuals. We also investigated the effect of reducing expression of CG2017, an ortholog of human GTPBP1/2, in the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster. Individuals with bi-allelic GTPBP1 or GTPBP2 variants presented with microcephaly, profound neurodevelopmental impairment, pathognomonic craniofacial features, and ectodermal defects. Abnormal vision and/or hearing, progressive spasticity, choreoathetoid movements, refractory epilepsy, and brain atrophy were part of the core phenotype of this syndrome. Cell line studies identified a loss-of-function (LoF) impact of the disease-associated variants but no significant abnormalities on ribosome profiling. Reduced expression of CG2017 isoforms was associated with locomotor impairment in Drosophila. In conclusion, bi-allelic GTPBP1 and GTPBP2 LoF variants cause an identical, distinct neurodevelopmental syndrome. Mutant CG2017 knockout flies display motor impairment, highlighting the conserved role for GTP-binding proteins in CNS development across species
Utilization of mechanical power and associations with clinical outcomes in brain injured patients: a secondary analysis of the extubation strategies in neuro-intensive care unit patients and associations with outcome (ENIO) trial
Background: There is insufficient evidence to guide ventilatory targets in acute brain injury (ABI). Recent studies have shown associations between mechanical power (MP) and mortality in critical care populations. We aimed to describe MP in ventilated patients with ABI, and evaluate associations between MP and clinical outcomes. Methods: In this preplanned, secondary analysis of a prospective, multi-center, observational cohort study (ENIO, NCT03400904), we included adult patients with ABI (Glasgow Coma Scale ≤ 12 before intubation) who required mechanical ventilation (MV) ≥ 24 h. Using multivariable log binomial regressions, we separately assessed associations between MP on hospital day (HD)1, HD3, HD7 and clinical outcomes: hospital mortality, need for reintubation, tracheostomy placement, and development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Results: We included 1217 patients (mean age 51.2 years [SD 18.1], 66% male, mean body mass index [BMI] 26.3 [SD 5.18]) hospitalized at 62 intensive care units in 18 countries. Hospital mortality was 11% (n = 139), 44% (n = 536) were extubated by HD7 of which 20% (107/536) required reintubation, 28% (n = 340) underwent tracheostomy placement, and 9% (n = 114) developed ARDS. The median MP on HD1, HD3, and HD7 was 11.9 J/min [IQR 9.2-15.1], 13 J/min [IQR 10-17], and 14 J/min [IQR 11-20], respectively. MP was overall higher in patients with ARDS, especially those with higher ARDS severity. After controlling for same-day pressure of arterial oxygen/fraction of inspired oxygen (P/F ratio), BMI, and neurological severity, MP at HD1, HD3, and HD7 was independently associated with hospital mortality, reintubation and tracheostomy placement. The adjusted relative risk (aRR) was greater at higher MP, and strongest for: mortality on HD1 (compared to the HD1 median MP 11.9 J/min, aRR at 17 J/min was 1.22, 95% CI 1.14-1.30) and HD3 (1.38, 95% CI 1.23-1.53), reintubation on HD1 (1.64; 95% CI 1.57-1.72), and tracheostomy on HD7 (1.53; 95%CI 1.18-1.99). MP was associated with the development of moderate-severe ARDS on HD1 (2.07; 95% CI 1.56-2.78) and HD3 (1.76; 95% CI 1.41-2.22). Conclusions: Exposure to high MP during the first week of MV is associated with poor clinical outcomes in ABI, independent of P/F ratio and neurological severity. Potential benefits of optimizing ventilator settings to limit MP warrant further investigation
Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations
Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18 : a geospatial modelling study
Background More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.Methods We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km x 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2.1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.Findings Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205000 (95% uncertainty interval 147000-257000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.Interpretation Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe
Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. FINDINGS: In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40-57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98-30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0·2% [-2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3·6% [-7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0-10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7-12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. INTERPRETATION: TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Background:
Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods.
Methods:
We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.
Findings:
From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.
Interpretation:
Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress
- …