Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves

[EN] The problem of predicting the failure of water mains has been considered from different perspectives and using several methodologies in engineering literature. Nowadays, it is important to be able to accurately calculate the failure probabilities of pipes over time, since water company profits and service quality for citizens depend on pipe survival; forecasting pipe failures could have important economic and social implications. Quantitative tools (such as managerial or statistical indicators and reliable databases) are required in order to assess the current and future state of networks. Companies managing these networks are trying to establish models for evaluating the risk Of failure in order to develop a proactive approach to the renewal process, instead of using traditional reactive pipe substitution schemes. The main objective of this paper is to compare models for evaluating the risk of failure in water supply networks. Using real data from a water Supply company, this study has identified which network characteristics affect the risk of failure and which models better fit data to predict service breakdown. The comparison using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) graph leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a generalized linear model. Also, we propose a procedure that can be applied to a pipe failure database, allowing the most appropriate decision rule to be chosen. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.The authors are indebted to the anonymous referees whose suggestions improved the original manuscript. This study was partially supported by a grant from MEyC (Ministerio de Educacion y Ciencia, Spain, Project CGL2004-05507). The research of Ana Debon was partially supported by a grant from Generalitat Valenciana (Grant no. GVPRE/2008/103).Debón Aucejo, AM.; Carrión García, A.; Cabrera Marcet, E.; Solano, H. (2010). Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 95(1):43-48. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2009.07.004S434895

Identification of miRNAs and Their Target Genes Associated with Sunitinib Resistance in Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma Patients

Sunitinib has greatly improved the survival of clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) patients in recent years. However, 20–30% of treated patients do not respond. To identify miRNAs and genes associated with a response, comparisons were made between biopsies from responder and non-responder ccRCC patients. Using integrated transcriptomic analyses, we identified 37 miRNAs and 60 respective target genes, which were significantly associated with the NF-kappa B, PI3K-Akt and MAPK pathways. We validated expression of the miRNAs (miR-223, miR-155, miR-200b, miR-130b) and target genes (FLT1, PRDM1 and SAV1) in 35 ccRCC patients. High levels of miR-223 and low levels of FLT1, SAV1 and PRDM1 were associated with worse overall survival (OS), and combined miR-223 + SAV1 levels distinguished responders from non-responders (AUC = 0.92). Using immunohistochemical staining of 170 ccRCC patients, VEGFR1 (FLT1) expression was associated with treatment response, histological grade and RECIST (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors) score, whereas SAV1 and BLIMP1 (PRDM1) were associated with metachronous metastatic disease. Using in situ hybridisation (ISH) to detect miR-155 we observed higher tumoural cell expression in non-responders, and non-tumoural cell expression with increased histological grade. In summary, our preliminary analysis using integrated miRNA-target gene analyses identified several novel biomarkers in ccRCC patients that surely warrant further investigation

Evidence-based guidelines for the perioperative management of oral anticoagulation with warfarin in patients scheduled for implantation of a cardiac electronic device

Introducción El manejo perioperatorio de la anticoagulación crónica representa dificultad para los médicos que realizan implantes de dispositivos de estimulación cardíaca, quienes utilizan la terapia puente con heparinas con la intención de disminuir el riesgo de sangrado. Sin embargo, este tratamiento es controversial. Objetivo Generar recomendaciones basadas en evidencia sobre el tratamiento perioperatorio de la anticoagulación de los pacientes con riesgo embólico moderado y alto, que requieren anticoagulación oral con warfarina y serán llevados a implante de dispositivos de estimulación cardíaca. Métodos Se realizó una búsqueda de la literatura para identificar guías de práctica clínica basadas en evidencia, las cuales se calificaron con la herramienta AGREE II. Se actualizó la evidencia desde el 1 de enero de 2009 hasta el 30 de noviembre de 2013, incluidas revisiones sistemáticas y experimentos clínicos. Los estudios se calificaron con los instrumentos GRADE y SIGN. Se generaron recomendaciones con metodología GRADE, llevadas a consenso formal de expertos. Resultados Las guías SIGN y CHEST tuvieron la mejor calificación con AGREE II. Con la nueva evidencia disponible proveniente de tres revisiones sistemáticas y dos experimentos clínicos, se generó recomendación fuerte a favor de continuar la anticoagulación oral con warfarina durante el perioperatorio de implante de dispositivos de estimulación cardíaca en pacientes con riesgo embólico moderado y alto. Conclusiones A partir de la nueva evidencia cambia la recomendación propuesta por las guías SIGN y CHEST. La alternativa de continuar la terapia con warfarina a cambio de realizar terapia puente, debe considerarse en la práctica clínica.Introduction The perioperative management of chronic anticoagulation concerns all physicians involved in the implantation of cardiac electronic devices (either pacemakers and cardioverter-defibrillators). Switching from warfarin to low molecular weight heparins (LMWH) has been performed to reduce the risk of bleeding. However, this approach has been shown to be controversial. Objective To generate evidence-based recommendations on the perioperative management of oral anticoagulation with warfarin in patients who will undergo the implantation of a cardiac electronic device. Methods A literature search was performed to identify evidence-based clinical practice guidelines, which were assessed using the AGREE II instrument. The guidelines were updated with systematic reviews and randomized clinical trials published from February 2009 to November 2013 comparing the continuation of warfarin versus switching to a LMWH or withholding warfarin. These studies were analyzed using the SIGN and GRADE scales to assess methodological quality. Recommendations were put forward through an expert panel. Results The guidelines with highest methodological quality were the SIGN (Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network) guideline published in June 2013 and the CHEST guideline published in February 2012. The update included three systematic reviews and two randomized clinical trials. The continuation of warfarin for the perioperative management of implantable cardiac electronic devices in patients with moderate and high risk is recommended. Conclusion Based on the new evidence changes the recommendation given by the CHEST SIGN and guides. The alternative of continued therapy with warfarin in exchange for performing therapy bridge, should be considered in clinical practice

Alternativas práticas ao modelo de saúde ocidental, utilizadas pelos cuidadores de pacientes com neoplasia hematológicas

Introducción: Las neoplasias hematológicas tienen la carga cultural de la palabra cáncer lo cual lleva a los cuidadores a buscar diversas alternativas. Objetivo: Describir las prácticas consideradas alternativas al modelo de salud occidental utilizadas para el cuidado de la salud, desde la experiencia de los cuidadores de pacientes adultos con neoplasias hematológicas en un Servicio de Hematología. Metodología: Estudio cualitativo descriptivo. Participaron 17 cuidadores de pacientes adultos con neoplasias hematológicas, seleccionados por conveniencia del registro del servicio de Hematología. Como técnica de recolección se realizaron dos grupos de discusión. Las sesiones fueron grabadas y transcritas en su totalidad. El análisis se hizo de acuerdo con la propuesta de Janice M. Morse y se efectuó triangulación por parte de investigadores. Resultados: Emergieron tres tipos de prácticas. 1. Prácticas espirituales: la voluntad de Dios como influyente en la recuperación.; 2. Las prácticas afectivas: los lazos familiares hacen más llevadera la enfermedad y el tratamiento, y 3. Prácticas Corporales: productos de origen, vegetal, animal, semisintético y farmacológicos no convencionales. Conclusión: Los cuidadores de la población con Cáncer utilizan prácticas alternativas al tratamiento convencional, por tanto, el equipo de salud no puede ignorarlas y necesita fortalecer la orientación al paciente y sus cuidadores.Introduction: Hematological neoplasms have the cultural burden of the word cancer which leads caregivers to look for different alternatives. Objective: To analyse the anthropological link between care and tenderness to potentiate care as an essential “way to be” of the human being, who ontological way was born of care and needs care. Methodology: Descriptive qualitative study. The participants were 17 caregivers, who were selected by convenience. Two discussion groups’ sessions were performed. The sessions were recorded and transcribed in full. The analysis followed the Janice M. Morse framework. Results: The findings that emerged permitted an approach toward understanding the practices used to care for patients affected by malignant hematological disease. The practices were organized in three types: 1. Spiritual practices: God´s Will as determinant in the recovery process; 2. Emotional Practices: the familiar ties make more bearable the illness and the treatment, and, 3. Corporal practices: origin products, vegetal, animal, semi-synthetic and no conventional pharmacological products. Conclusion: The utilization of alternative practices is very common by caregivers. Healthcare practitioners cannot ignore this reality and need tools to adequately guide and inform patients and caregivers.Introdução: As neoplasias hematológicas têm carga cultural da palavra câncer, levando aos cuidadores das pessoas que o sofrem a procurar diversas alternativas. Objetivo: Descrever as práticas consideradas alternativas ao modelo de saúde Ocidental usado para cuidados de saúde, a partir da experiência de cuidadores de pacientes adultos com doenças hematológicas malignas no servicio de Hematologia Hospital San José de Bogotá. Metodologia: Estudo qualitativo descritiva. Participaram 17 cuidadores de pacientes adultos com neoplasias hematológicas, seleccionados por conveniência dos registos do servicio Hematologia. Como uma técnica de coleta de informações dois grupos de discussão foram realizadas. As sessões foram gravadas e transcritas em sua totalidade. A análise foi feita de acordo com a proposta Janice M Morse e se efectou uma triangulação foi realizado por pesquisadores. Resultados: Surgiram três tipos de práticas utilizadas para cuidar de pessoas afectadas pela doença hematológica maligna; 1. As práticas espirituais: a vontade de Deus tão influente na recuperação;. 2. práticas Affective: laços familiares tornar mais suportável a doença e o tratamento, e 3. práticas corporais: produtos de origem vegetal, animal, semi-sintético e farmacológico não convencional. Conclusão: Os cuidadores de pessoas com câncer muitas vezes usam alternativa às práticas convencionais de tratamento, assim, a equipe de saúde não pode ignorar esta realidade e precisa de reforçar a orientação aos pacientes e seus cuidadores

Pros and cons of different therapeutic antibody formats for recombinant antivenom development.

Antibody technologies are being increasingly applied in the field of toxinology. Fuelled by the many advances in immunology, synthetic biology, and antibody research, different approaches and antibody formats are being investigated for the ability to neutralize animal toxins. These different molecular formats each have their own therapeutic characteristics. In this review, we provide an overview of the advances made in the development of toxin-targeting antibodies, and discuss the benefits and drawbacks of different antibody formats in relation to their ability to neutralize toxins, pharmacokinetic features, propensity to cause adverse reactions, formulation, and expression for research and development (R&D) purposes and large-scale manufacturing. A research trend seems to be emerging towards the use of human antibody formats as well as camelid heavy-domain antibody fragments due to their compatibility with the human immune system, beneficial therapeutic properties, and the ability to manufacture these molecules cost-effectively

Factors associated with smoking among tuberculosis patients in Spain

BACKGROUND: To determine the prevalence of smoking and analyze associated factors in a cohort of patients diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) in Spain between 2006 and 2013. METHODS: Multicenter, cross-sectional, descriptive, observational study using a national database of TB patients, using logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We analyzed 5,846 cases (62 % men, mean age 39 years, 33 % foreigners). 23.4 % were alcohol abuser, 1.3 % were injected drug users (IDU), 4.6 % were co-infected with HIV, and 7.5 % had a history of TB treatment. 6.6 % and 0.8 % showed resistance to one and multiple drugs, respectively. The predominant clinical presentation was pulmonary (71 %) with a cavitary radiological pattern in 32.8 % of cases. 82 % of cases were confirmed microbiologically, and 54 % were smear-positive microscopy. 2,300 (39.3 %) patients were smokers. The following factors were associated with smoking: male sex (OR = 2.26;CI:1.97;2.60), Spanish origin (OR = 2.79;CI:2.40–3.24), alcoholism (OR = 2.85;CI:2.46;3.31), IDU (OR = 2.78;CI:1.48;5.52), homelessness (OR = 1.99;CI:1.14–3.57), pulmonary TB (OR = 1.61;CI:1.16;2.24), cavitary radiological pattern (OR = 1.99;CI:1.43;2.79) and a smear-positive microscopy at the time of diagnosis (OR = 1.39;CI:1.14;1.17). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of smoking among TB patients is high. Smokers with TB have a distinct sociodemographic, clinical, radiological and microbiological profile to non-smokers

The CARMENES search for exoplanets around M dwarfs Guaranteed time observations Data Release 1 (2016-2020)

I. Ribas et al.[Context] The CARMENES instrument, installed at the 3.5 m telescope of the Calar Alto Observatory in Almería, Spain, was conceived to deliver high-accuracy radial velocity (RV) measurements with long-term stability to search for temperate rocky planets around a sample of nearby cool stars. Moreover, the broad wavelength coverage was designed to provide a range of stellar activity indicators to assess the nature of potential RV signals and to provide valuable spectral information to help characterise the stellar targets.[Aims] We describe the CARMENES guaranteed time observations (GTO), spanning from 2016 to 2020, during which 19 633 spectra for a sample of 362 targets were collected. We present the CARMENES Data Release 1 (DR1), which makes public all observations obtained during the GTO of the CARMENES survey.[Methods] The CARMENES survey target selection was aimed at minimising biases, and about 70% of all known M dwarfs within 10 pc and accessible from Calar Alto were included. The data were pipeline-processed, and high-level data products, including 18 642 precise RVs for 345 targets, were derived. Time series data of spectroscopic activity indicators were also obtained.[Results] We discuss the characteristics of the CARMENES data, the statistical properties of the stellar sample, and the spectroscopic measurements. We show examples of the use of CARMENES data and provide a contextual view of the exoplanet population revealed by the survey, including 33 new planets, 17 re-analysed planets, and 26 confirmed planets from transiting candidate follow-up. A subsample of 238 targets was used to derive updated planet occurrence rates, yielding an overall average of 1.44 ± 0.20 planets with 1 M⊕ < Mpl sin i < 1000 M⊕ and 1 day < Porb < 1000 days per star, and indicating that nearly every M dwarf hosts at least one planet. All the DR1 raw data, pipeline-processed data, and high-level data products are publicly available online.[Conclusions] CARMENES data have proven very useful for identifying and measuring planetary companions. They are also suitable for a variety of additional applications, such as the determination of stellar fundamental and atmospheric properties, the characterisation of stellar activity, and the study of exoplanet atmospheres.CARMENES is an instrument at the Centro Astronómico Hispano en Andalucía (CAHA) at Calar Alto (Almería, Spain), operated jointly by the Junta de Andalucía and the Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC). CARMENES was funded by the Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (MPG), the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through projects FICTS-2011-02, ICTS-2017-07-CAHA-4, and CAHA16-CE-3978, and the members of the CARMENES Consortium (Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie, Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, Landessternwarte Königstuhl, Institut de Ciències de l’Espai, Institut für Astrophysik Göttingen, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Thüringer Landessternwarte Tautenburg, Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias, Hamburger Sternwarte, Centro de Astrobiología and Centro Astronómico Hispano-Alemán), with additional contributions by the MINECO, the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) through the Major Research Instrumentation Programme and Research Unit FOR2544 “Blue Planets around Red Stars”, the Klaus Tschira Stiftung, the states of Baden-Württemberg and Niedersachsen, and by the Junta de Andalucía. We acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigación of the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (AEI-MCIN) and the ERDF “A way of making Europe” through projects PID2020-117493GB-I00, PID2019-109522GB-C5[1:4], PID2019-110689RB-I00, PID2019-107061GB-C61, PID2019-107061GB-C64, PGC2018-098153-B-C33, PID2021-125627OB-C31/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, and the Centre of Excellence “Severo Ochoa” and “María de Maeztu” awards to the Institut de Ciències de l’Espai (CEX2020-001058-M), Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias (CEX2019-000920-S), Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (SEV-2017-0709), and Centro de Astrobiología (MDM-2017-0737). We also benefited from additional funding from: the Secretaria d’Universitats i Recerca del Departament d’Empresa i Coneixement de la Generalitat de Catalunya and the Agència de Gestió d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca of the Generalitat de Catalunya, with additional funding from the European FEDER/ERDF funds, and from the Generalitat de Catalunya/CERCA programme; the DFG through the Major Research Instrumentation Programme and Research Unit FOR2544 “Blue Planets around Red Stars” (RE 2694/8-1); the University of La Laguna through the Margarita Salas Fellowship from the Spanish Ministerio de Universidades ref. UNI/551/2021-May-26, and under the EU Next Generation funds; the Gobierno de Canarias through projects ProID2021010128 and ProID2020010129; the Spanish MICINN under Ramón y Cajal programme RYC-2013-14875; the “Fondi di Ricerca Scientifica d’Ateneo 2021” of the University of Rome “Tor Vergata”; and the programme “Alien Earths” supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under agreement No. 80NSSC21K0593. TPeer reviewe

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis