Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings The global TFR decreased from 2.72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2.66-2.79) in 2000 to 2.31 (2.17-2.46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134.5 million (131.5-137.8) in 2000 to a peak of 139.6 million (133.0-146.9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135.3 million (127.2-144.1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2.1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27.1% (95% UI 26.4-27.8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67.2 years (95% UI 66.8-67.6) in 2000 to 73.5 years (72.8-74.3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50.7 million (49.5-51.9) in 2000 to 56.5 million (53.7-59.2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9.6 million (9.1-10.3) in 2000 to 5.0 million (4.3-6.0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25.7%, from 6.2 billion (6.0-6.3) in 2000 to 7.7 billion (7.5-8.0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58.6 years (56.1-60.8) in 2000 to 63.5 years (60.8-66.1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Differential Expression Pattern of the Human Endoderm-Specific Transcription Factor Sox17 in Various Tissues and Cells

Background: Sox17 is a member of the Sry-related high mobility group (HMG) of transcription factors that is necessary for endodermal formation and liver development in multiple species. Sox17 gene expression is required for formation of definitive endoderm that gives rise to various tissues.Objective: To examine the expression of Sox17 in various human tissues and cells.Methods: Semiquantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used to evaluate the expression of Sox17 in adult liver, small intestine, spleen, placenta, fetal liver as well as embryonic stem cells (ESCs), and human HepG2 hepatoma cell line.Results: Low Sox17 gene expression was observed in ESCs. However, there was no expression of Sox17 in human placental tissue, small intestine, adult liver, spleen, and HepG2 cells. But its expression in human fetal liver was very high.Conclusion: The data presented in this study reflect the differential expression pattern of Sox17 in the fetal development during early mammalian endodermal formation which is temporal and tightly regulated

Hepatitis C Virus Antibodies and Vitiligo Disease

Vitiligo is a common skin disorder, characterized by depigmented patches due to selective destruction of melanocytes. The etiology of this disease is unknown. A number of hypotheses including viral theory have been proposed to explain the etiology. To determine the prevalence of antibody to hepatitis C virus infection in vitiligo patients, the present study was performed. Third generation ELISA test was used for detection of antibodies to HCV in human sera. All normal controls were anti-HCV negative whereas only one patient was positive for anti-HCV and there was no significant difference in the prevalence of anti-HCV between patients and controls. These results indicate that hepatitis C virus has not a direct causal role in the pathogenesis of vitiligo, however, this does not rul out a "hit and run" virus induced disease

Influence of Electric Fields and Conductivity on Pollen Tube Growth assessed via Electrical Lab-on-Chip

Pollen tubes are polarly growing plant cells that are able to rapidly respond to a combination of chemical, mechanical, and electrical cues. This behavioural feature allows them to invade the flower pistil and deliver the sperm cells in highly targeted manner to receptive ovules in order to accomplish fertilization. How signals are perceived and processed in the pollen tube is still poorly understood. Evidence for electrical guidance in particular is vague and highly contradictory. To generate reproducible experimental conditions for the investigation of the effect of electric fields on pollen tube growth we developed an Electrical Lab-on-Chip (ELoC). Pollen from the species Camellia displayed differential sensitivity to electric fields depending on whether the entire cell or only its growing tip was exposed. The response to DC fields was dramatically higher than that to AC fields of the same strength. However, AC fields were found to restore and even promote pollen growth. Surprisingly, the pollen tube response correlated with the conductivity of the growth medium under different AC frequencies—consistent with the notion that the effect of the field on pollen tube growth may be mediated via its effect on the motion of ions

Whole-exome sequencing of familial cases of multiple morphological abnormalities of the sperm flagella (MMAF) reveals new DNAH1 mutations

STUDY QUESTION: Can whole-exome sequencing (WES) of patients with multiple morphological abnormalities of the sperm flagella (MMAF) identify causal mutations in new genes or mutations in the previously identified dynein axonemal heavy chain 1 (DNAH1) gene? SUMMARY ANSWER: WES for six families with men affected by MMAF syndrome allowed the identification of DNAH1 mutations in four affected men distributed in two out of the six families but no new candidate genes were identified. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Mutations in DNAH1, an axonemal inner dynein arm heavy chain gene, have been shown to be responsible for male infertility due to a characteristic form of asthenozoospermia called MMAF, defined by the presence in the ejaculate of spermatozoa with a mosaic of flagellar abnormalities including absent, coiled, bent, angulated, irregular and short flagella. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This was a retrospective genetics study of patients presenting a MMAF phenotype. Patients were recruited in Iran and Italy between 2008 and 2015. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: WES was performed for a total of 10 subjects. All identified variants were confirmed by Sanger sequencing. Two additional affected family members were analyzed by direct Sanger sequencing. To establish the prevalence of the DNAH1 mutation identified in an Iranian family, we carried out targeted sequencing on 38 additional MMAF patients of the same geographical origin. RT-PCR and immunochemistry were performed on sperm samples to assess the effect of the identified mutation on RNA and protein. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: WES in six families identified a causal mutations in two families. Two additional affected family members were confirmed to hold the same homozygous mutation as their sibling. In total, DNAH1 mutations were identified in 5 out of 12 analyzed subjects (41.7%). If we only include index cases, we detected two mutated subjects out of six (33%) tested MMAF individuals. Furthermore we sequenced one DNAH1 exon found to be mutated (c.8626-1G > A) in an Iranian family in an additional 38 MMAF patients from Iran. One of these patients carried the variant confirming that this variant is relatively frequent in the Iranian population. The effect of the c.8626-1G > A variant was confirmed by RT-PCR and immunochemistry as no RNA or protein could be observed in sperm from the affected men. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: WES allows the amplification of 80-90% of all coding exons. It is possible that some DNAH1 exons may not have been sequenced and that we may have missed some additional mutations. Also, WES cannot identify deep intronic mutations and it is not efficient for detection of large genomic events (deletions, insertions, inversions). We did not identify any causal mutations in DNAH1 or in other candidate genes in four out of the six tested families. This indicates that the technique and/or the analysis of our data can be improved to increase the diagnosis efficiency. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our findings confirm that DNAH1 is one of the main genes involved in MMAF syndrome. It is a large gene with 78 exons making it challenging and expensive to sequence using the traditional Sanger sequencing methods. We show that WES sequencing is good alternative to Sanger sequencing to reach a genetic diagnosis in patients with severe male infertility phenotypes

Distinguishing the co-ancestries of haplogroup G Y-chromosomes in the populations of Europe and the Caucasus

Haplogroup G, together with J2 clades, has been associated with the spread of agriculture, especially in the European context. However, interpretations based on simple haplogroup frequency clines do not recognize underlying patterns of genetic diversification. Although progress has been recently made in resolving the haplogroup G phylogeny, a comprehensive survey of the geographic distribution patterns of the significant sub-clades of this haplogroup has not been conducted yet. Here we present the haplogroup frequency distribution and STR variation of 16 informative G sub-clades by evaluating 1472 haplogroup G chromosomes belonging to 98 populations ranging from Europe to Pakistan. Although no basal G-M201* chromosomes were detected in our data set, the homeland of this haplogroup has been estimated to be somewhere nearby eastern Anatolia, Armenia or western Iran, the only areas characterized by the co-presence of deep basal branches as well as the occurrence of high sub-haplogroup diversity. The P303 SNP defines the most frequent and widespread G sub-haplogroup. However, its sub-clades have more localized distribution with the U1-defined branch largely restricted to Near/Middle Eastern and the Caucasus, whereas L497 lineages essentially occur in Europe where they likely originated. In contrast, the only U1 representative in Europe is the G-M527 lineage whose distribution pattern is consistent with regions of Greek colonization. No clinal patterns were detected suggesting that the distributions are rather indicative of isolation by distance and demographic complexities