Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

3D seismic-reflection geometry analysis in the Chalk Group, southern Danish North Sea

The Upper Cretaceous to lower Paleogene Chalk Group of NW Europe is classically assumed to represent the settlement of homogeneous calcareous ooze from suspension draping submarine morphology under quiet pelagic conditions. Redeposited chalk units have, however, also been identified in the Central North Sea. Recently, the documentation of prominent intra-Chalk and Top Chalk reflection discontinuities on 3D seismic data led to a revision of some general ideas of the chalk deposition. Several important issues concerning the understanding of highly irregular and discontinuous features of the Upper Cretaceous to lower Palaeogene age Chalk Group in the Danish North Sea are not yet fully understood. These irregular and discontinuous features include: intra-chalk incision features, Top Chalk depression features and a Top Chalk hummocky facies. These irregularities and discontinuities form a marked contrast to the chalk deposited under quiet, homogeneous pelagic conditions. This study tackles the observed geometries by focusing on the interpretation and analysis of discontinuous chalk reflections detected on a 2000 km² 3D seismicreflection dataset of the Central Graben, Danish North Sea provided by Maersk Oil and Gas. The 3D seismic analysis consisted of a horizon interpretation, the selection of chalk target areas for interpretations in detail, and a systematic analysis of the Chalk Group to search for similar features that might have a causal relationship with these discontinuities. The results of these interpretations and analyses are expected to reveal the processes which are responsible for creating the irregular features in the study area. In this thesis it is documented that:(1) Several intra-Chalk channels are preserved in the subsurface of the Danish North-Sea Central Graben. The main channel system trends approximately 25 km in N-S direction between the Bo-Jens Ridge and Adda Ridge into an area west of the Gorm salt structure. Intra-chalk incisions developed in response to strong turbidite currents vs. contour currents affecting the Late Cretaceous “chalk sea”. (2) More than 170 depressions are observed in an interval immediately below and above the Top Chalk surface in the southeastern Danish Central Graben. Based on their plan view geometry and their degree of symmetry, three types of depressions were classified: Type 1, comprising sub-circular and symmetrical depressions, Type 2, elongated and symmetrical depressions and, Type 3, elongated and asymmetrical depressions. The observed depressions on the Top Chalk surface are pockmarks caused by fluid escape.(3) Several areas characterized by a hummocky seismic-reflection facies that occur in an interval from ca. 15 ms below to 25 ms above the Top Chalk surface were identified. Depressions associated with this facies can be recognized as a subcircular, elongate or a lunar features. These depressions at Top Chalk are interpreted as collapse structures formed by fluid or gas escape which was possibly linked to a minor pulse of regional tectonic inversion during Danian times

Analysis of epidemiological data of foodborne outbreak reported in Iran

Background: Diarrhea is the most common bacterial infections, and the main cause of death in the children. Worldwide, food and waterborne diseases are estimated to cause more than two million deaths per year. Foodborne diseases and resistance to antimicrobial agents are two problems worldwide and are increasing. However, standard surveillance systems do not routinely collect information on controls. The aim of this study was to analysis epidemiological data of foodborne outbreaks at the country level. Methods: This is a descriptive study, in total 305 fecal swab samples from 73 outbreaks during one year from April 2012 to March 2013 in different provinces of Iran, were collected and transferred to the microbiology laboratory of Public Health School of Tehran University of Medical Sciences to identify the cause’s diarrhea. The patterns of antibiotic-resistance were determined by using Kirby Bauer method. Results: In total 73 food borne outbreaks that were studied, the largest number 26 (35.6%) were found in Hamadan province with 103 samples (34.2%). Out of 73 outbreaks 40 (54.79%) of were related to foods, 6 (8.22%) to water, and 27 (36.98%) were unspecified (P< 0.0001). Fifty seven outbreaks (78.08%) in the city and 16 outbreaks (21.92%) occurred in rural areas (P< 0.0001). The most dominated Gram-negative isolated organisms were Shigella (6.9%) and Gram-positive bacteria Staphylococcus aureus (12.8%). The dominated age group was under five years (16.4%), and dominant gender group was men 186 (61.8%) (P< 0.0001). In total 69 (22.9%) were hospitalized and 11 deaths were reported. Most clinical symptoms of abdominal cramping (82%), nausea and vomiting (68.4%), bloody diarrhea (23.3%), and non-bloody diarrhea (76.7%). All the isolated gram-negative were sensitive to ciprofloxacin and resistant to clindamycin. The gram-positive were sensitive to cephalexin and resistant to penicillin. Conclusion: The knowledge of bacterial agent of foodborne diseases and determination of antimicrobial resistance pattern are helpful to reduce the rate of foodborne outbreaks, the cost of treatment. The prevention control of outbreaks is also very important