Dealing with missing standard deviation and mean values in meta-analysis of continuous outcomes: a systematic review

Background: Rigorous, informative meta-analyses rely on availability of appropriate summary statistics or individual participant data. For continuous outcomes, especially those with naturally skewed distributions, summary information on the mean or variability often goes unreported. While full reporting of original trial data is the ideal, we sought to identify methods for handling unreported mean or variability summary statistics in meta-analysis. Methods: We undertook two systematic literature reviews to identify methodological approaches used to deal with missing mean or variability summary statistics. Five electronic databases were searched, in addition to the Cochrane Colloquium abstract books and the Cochrane Statistics Methods Group mailing list archive. We also conducted cited reference searching and emailed topic experts to identify recent methodological developments. Details recorded included the description of the method, the information required to implement the method, any underlying assumptions and whether the method could be readily applied in standard statistical software. We provided a summary description of the methods identified, illustrating selected methods in example meta-analysis scenarios. Results: For missing standard deviations (SDs), following screening of 503 articles, fifteen methods were identified in addition to those reported in a previous review. These included Bayesian hierarchical modelling at the meta-analysis level; summary statistic level imputation based on observed SD values from other trials in the meta-analysis; a practical approximation based on the range; and algebraic estimation of the SD based on other summary statistics. Following screening of 1124 articles for methods estimating the mean, one approximate Bayesian computation approach and three papers based on alternative summary statistics were identified. Illustrative meta-analyses showed that when replacing a missing SD the approximation using the range minimised loss of precision and generally performed better than omitting trials. When estimating missing means, a formula using the median, lower quartile and upper quartile performed best in preserving the precision of the meta-analysis findings, although in some scenarios, omitting trials gave superior results. Conclusions: Methods based on summary statistics (minimum, maximum, lower quartile, upper quartile, median) reported in the literature facilitate more comprehensive inclusion of randomised controlled trials with missing mean or variability summary statistics within meta-analyses

Acyclovir for treating varicella in otherwise healthy children and adolescents: a systematic review of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND: Acyclovir has the potential to shorten the course of chickenpox which may result in reduced costs and morbidity. We conducted a systematic review of randomised controlled trials that evaluated acyclovir for the treatment of chickenpox in otherwise healthy children. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched. The reference lists of relevant articles were examined and primary authors and Glaxo Wellcome were contacted to identify additional trials. Two reviewers independently screened studies for inclusion, assessed study quality using the Jadad scale and allocation concealment, and extracted data. Continuous data were converted to a weighted mean difference (WMD). Overall estimates were not calculated due to differences in the age groups studied. RESULTS: Three studies were included. Methodological quality was 3 (n = 2) and 4 (n = 1) on the Jadad scale. Acyclovir was associated with a significant reduction in the number of days with fever, from -1.0 (95% CI -1.5,-0.5) to -1.3 (95% CI -2.0,-0.6). Results were inconsistent with respect to the number of days to no new lesions, the maximum number of lesions and relief of pruritis. There were no clinically important differences between acyclovir and placebo with respect to complications or adverse effects. CONCLUSION: Acyclovir appears to be effective in reducing the number of days with fever among otherwise healthy children with chickenpox. The results were inconsistent with respect to the number of days to no new lesions, the maximum number of lesions and the relief of itchiness. The clinical importance of acyclovir treatment in otherwise healthy children remains controversial

Dimensional and hierarchical models of depression using the Beck Depression Inventory-II in an Arab college student sample

Abstract Background An understanding of depressive symptomatology from the perspective of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) could facilitate valid and interpretable comparisons across cultures. The objectives of the study were: (i) using the responses of a sample of Arab college students to the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) in CFA, to compare the "goodness of fit" indices of the original dimensional three-and two-factor first-order models, and their modifications, with the corresponding hierarchical models (i.e., higher - order and bifactor models); (ii) to assess the psychometric characteristics of the BDI-II, including convergent/discriminant validity with the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL-25). Method Participants (N = 624) were Kuwaiti national college students, who completed the questionnaires in class. CFA was done by AMOS, version 16. Eleven models were compared using eight "fit" indices. Results In CFA, all the models met most "fit" criteria. While the higher-order model did not provide improved fit over the dimensional first - order factor models, the bifactor model (BFM) had the best fit indices (CMNI/DF = 1.73; GFI = 0.96; RMSEA = 0.034). All regression weights of the dimensional models were significantly different from zero (P Conclusion The broadly adequate fit of the various models indicates that they have some merit and implies that the relationship between the domains of depression probably contains hierarchical and dimensional elements. The bifactor model is emerging as the best way to account for the clinical heterogeneity of depression. The psychometric characteristics of the BDI-II lend support to our CFA results.</p

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary

Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies

Relative contributions of crust and mantle to generation of Campanian high-K calc-alkaline I-type granitoids in a subduction setting, with special reference to the Harsit Pluton, Eastern Turkey

We present elemental and Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic data for the magmatic suite (similar to 79 Ma) of the Harsit pluton, from the Eastern Pontides (NE Turkey), with the aim of determining its magma source and geodynamic evolution. The pluton comprises granite, granodiorite, tonalite and minor diorite (SiO(2) = 59.43-76.95 wt%), with only minor gabbroic diorite mafic microgranular enclaves in composition (SiO(2) = 54.95-56.32 wt%), and exhibits low Mg# (&lt;46). All samples show a high-K calc-alkaline differentiation trend and I-type features. The chondrite-normalized REE patterns are fractionated [(La/Yb)(n) = 2.40-12.44] and display weak Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.30-0.76). The rocks are characterized by enrichment of LILE and depletion of HFSE. The Harsit host rocks have weak concave-upward REE patterns, suggesting that amphibole and garnet played a significant role in their generation during magma segregation. The host rocks and their enclaves are isotopically indistinguishable. Sr-Nd isotopic data for all of the samples display I(Sr) = 0.70676-0.70708, epsilon(Nd)(79 Ma) = -4.4 to -3.3, with T(DM) = 1.09-1.36 Ga. The lead isotopic ratios are ((206)Pb/(204)pb) = 18.79-18.87, ((207)Pb/(204)Pb) = 15.59-15.61 and ((208)Pb/(204)Pb) = 38.71-38.83. These geochemical data rule out pure crustal-derived magma genesis in a post-collision extensional stage and suggest mixed-origin magma generation in a subduction setting. The melting that generated these high-K granitoidic rocks may have resulted from the upper Cretaceous subduction of the Izmir-Ankara-Erzincan oceanic slab beneath the Eurasian block in the region. The back-arc extensional events would have caused melting of the enriched subcontinental lithospheric mantle and formed mafic magma. The underplating of the lower crust by mafic magmas would have played a significant role in the generation of high-K magma. Thus, a thermal anomaly induced by underplated basic magma into a hot crust would have caused partial melting in the lower part of the crust. In this scenario, the lithospheric mantle-derived basaltic melt first mixed with granitic magma of crustal origin at depth. Then, the melts, which subsequently underwent a fractional crystallization and crustal assimilation processes, could ascend to shallower crustal levels to generate a variety of rock types ranging from diorite to granite. Sr-Nd isotope modeling shows that the generation of these magmas involved similar to 65-75% of the lower crustal-derived melt and similar to 25-35% of subcontinental lithospheric mantle. Further, geochemical data and the Ar-Ar plateau age on hornblende, combined with regional studies, imply that the Harsit pluton formed in a subduction setting and that the back-arc extensional period started by least similar to 79 Ma in the Eastern Pontides.Geochemistry &amp; GeophysicsMineralogySCI(E)33ARTICLE4467-48716