Describing the longitudinal course of major depression using Markov models: Data integration across three national surveys

BACKGROUND: Most epidemiological studies of major depression report period prevalence estimates. These are of limited utility in characterizing the longitudinal epidemiology of this condition. Markov models provide a methodological framework for increasing the utility of epidemiological data. Markov models relating incidence and recovery to major depression prevalence have been described in a series of prior papers. In this paper, the models are extended to describe the longitudinal course of the disorder. METHODS: Data from three national surveys conducted by the Canadian national statistical agency (Statistics Canada) were used in this analysis. These data were integrated using a Markov model. Incidence, recurrence and recovery were represented as weekly transition probabilities. Model parameters were calibrated to the survey estimates. RESULTS: The population was divided into three categories: low, moderate and high recurrence groups. The size of each category was approximated using lifetime data from a study using the WHO Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI). Consistent with previous work, transition probabilities reflecting recovery were high in the initial weeks of the episodes, and declined by a fixed proportion with each passing week. CONCLUSION: Markov models provide a framework for integrating psychiatric epidemiological data. Previous studies have illustrated the utility of Markov models for decomposing prevalence into its various determinants: incidence, recovery and mortality. This study extends the Markov approach by distinguishing several recurrence categories

Cost-Effectiveness of Strategies to Improve HIV Testing and Receipt of Results: Economic Analysis of a Randomized Controlled Trial

The CDC recommends routine voluntary HIV testing of all patients 13-64 years of age. Despite this recommendation, HIV testing rates are low even among those at identifiable risk, and many patients do not return to receive their results. To examine the costs and benefits of strategies to improve HIV testing and receipt of results. Cost-effectiveness analysis based on a Markov model. Acceptance of testing, return rates, and related costs were derived from a randomized trial of 251 patients; long-term costs and health outcomes were derived from the literature. Primary-care patients with unknown HIV status. Comparison of three intervention models for HIV counseling and testing: Model A = traditional HIV counseling and testing; Model B = nurse-initiated routine screening with traditional HIV testing and counseling; Model C = nurse-initiated routine screening with rapid HIV testing and streamlined counseling. Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness. Without consideration of the benefit from reduced HIV transmission, Model A resulted in per-patient lifetime discounted costs of $48,650 and benefits of 16.271 QALYs. Model B increased lifetime costs by$53 and benefits by 0.0013 QALYs (corresponding to 0.48 quality-adjusted life days). Model C cost $66 more than Model A with an increase of 0.0018 QALYs (0.66 quality-adjusted life days) and an incremental cost-effectiveness of$36,390/QALY. When we included the benefit from reduced HIV transmission, Model C cost $10,660/QALY relative to Model A. The cost-effectiveness of Model C was robust in sensitivity analyses. In a primary-care population, nurse-initiated routine screening with rapid HIV testing and streamlined counseling increased rates of testing and receipt of test results and was cost-effective compared with traditional HIV testing strategies

Ten-year trends in benzodiazepine use in the Dutch population

Background In the past decades knowledge on adequate treatment of affective disorders and awareness of the negative consequences of long-term benzodiazepine use increased. Therefore, a decrease in benzodiazepine use is expected, particularly in prolonged use. The aim of this study was to assess time trends in benzodiazepine use. Methods and material Data from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) were used to investigate trends in benzodiazepine use between 1992 and 2002 in two population-based samples aged 55-64 years. Differences between the two samples with respect to benzodiazepine use and to sociodemographic, physical health and mental health characteristics were described and tested with chi- square tests and logistic regression analyses. Results Benzodiazepine use remained stable over 10 years, with 7.8% in LASA-1 (n = 874) and 7.9% in LASA-2 (n = 919) (p = 0.90) with a persisting preponderance in women and in people with low education, low income, chronic physical diseases, functional limitations, cognitive impairment, depression, anxiety complaints, sleep problems and when using antidepressants. Long-term use remained high with 70% in 1992 and 80% in 2002 of total benzodiazepine use. Conclusion In the Dutch population aged 55-64, overall benzodiazepine use remained stable from 1992 to 2002, with a high proportion of long-term users, despite the effort to reduce benzodiazepine use and the renewal of the guidelines. More effort should be made to decrease prolonged benzodiazepine use in this middle-aged group, because of the increasing risks with ageing. © The Author(s) 2011

Regulation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis-Dependent HIV-1 Transcription Reveals a New Role for NFAT5 in the Toll-Like Receptor Pathway

Tuberculosis (TB) disease in HIV co-infected patients contributes to increased mortality by activating innate and adaptive immune signaling cascades that stimulate HIV-1 replication, leading to an increase in viral load. Here, we demonstrate that silencing of the expression of the transcription factor nuclear factor of activated T cells 5 (NFAT5) by RNA interference (RNAi) inhibits Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTb)-stimulated HIV-1 replication in co-infected macrophages. We show that NFAT5 gene and protein expression are strongly induced by MTb, which is a Toll-like receptor (TLR) ligand, and that an intact NFAT5 binding site in the viral promoter of R5-tropic HIV-1 subtype B and subtype C molecular clones is required for efficent induction of HIV-1 replication by MTb. Furthermore, silencing by RNAi of key components of the TLR pathway in human monocytes, including the downstream signaling molecules MyD88, IRAK1, and TRAF6, significantly inhibits MTb-induced NFAT5 gene expression. Thus, the innate immune response to MTb infection induces NFAT5 gene and protein expression, and NFAT5 plays a crucial role in MTb regulation of HIV-1 replication via a direct interaction with the viral promoter. These findings also demonstrate a general role for NFAT5 in TLR- and MTb-mediated control of gene expression

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta