Dragon-kings: mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence

This introductory article presents the special Discussion and Debate volume "From black swans to dragon-kings, is there life beyond power laws?" published in Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics in May 2012. We summarize and put in perspective the contributions into three main themes: (i) mechanisms for dragon-kings, (ii) detection of dragon-kings and statistical tests and (iii) empirical evidence in a large variety of natural and social systems. Overall, we are pleased to witness significant advances both in the introduction and clarification of underlying mechanisms and in the development of novel efficient tests that demonstrate clear evidence for the presence of dragon-kings in many systems. However, this positive view should be balanced by the fact that this remains a very delicate and difficult field, if only due to the scarcity of data as well as the extraordinary important implications with respect to hazard assessment, risk control and predictability.Comment: 20 page

Heavy quarkonium: progress, puzzles, and opportunities

A golden age for heavy quarkonium physics dawned a decade ago, initiated by the confluence of exciting advances in quantum chromodynamics (QCD) and an explosion of related experimental activity. The early years of this period were chronicled in the Quarkonium Working Group (QWG) CERN Yellow Report (YR) in 2004, which presented a comprehensive review of the status of the field at that time and provided specific recommendations for further progress. However, the broad spectrum of subsequent breakthroughs, surprises, and continuing puzzles could only be partially anticipated. Since the release of the YR, the BESII program concluded only to give birth to BESIII; the $B$-factories and CLEO-c flourished; quarkonium production and polarization measurements at HERA and the Tevatron matured; and heavy-ion collisions at RHIC have opened a window on the deconfinement regime. All these experiments leave legacies of quality, precision, and unsolved mysteries for quarkonium physics, and therefore beg for continuing investigations. The plethora of newly-found quarkonium-like states unleashed a flood of theoretical investigations into new forms of matter such as quark-gluon hybrids, mesonic molecules, and tetraquarks. Measurements of the spectroscopy, decays, production, and in-medium behavior of c\bar{c}, b\bar{b}, and b\bar{c} bound states have been shown to validate some theoretical approaches to QCD and highlight lack of quantitative success for others. The intriguing details of quarkonium suppression in heavy-ion collisions that have emerged from RHIC have elevated the importance of separating hot- and cold-nuclear-matter effects in quark-gluon plasma studies. This review systematically addresses all these matters and concludes by prioritizing directions for ongoing and future efforts.Comment: 182 pages, 112 figures. Editors: N. Brambilla, S. Eidelman, B. K. Heltsley, R. Vogt. Section Coordinators: G. T. Bodwin, E. Eichten, A. D. Frawley, A. B. Meyer, R. E. Mitchell, V. Papadimitriou, P. Petreczky, A. A. Petrov, P. Robbe, A. Vair

Search for the standard model Higgs boson decaying into two photons in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV

A search for a Higgs boson decaying into two photons is described. The analysis is performed using a dataset recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC from pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV, which corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.8 inverse femtobarns. Limits are set on the cross section of the standard model Higgs boson decaying to two photons. The expected exclusion limit at 95% confidence level is between 1.4 and 2.4 times the standard model cross section in the mass range between 110 and 150 GeV. The analysis of the data excludes, at 95% confidence level, the standard model Higgs boson decaying into two photons in the mass range 128 to 132 GeV. The largest excess of events above the expected standard model background is observed for a Higgs boson mass hypothesis of 124 GeV with a local significance of 3.1 sigma. The global significance of observing an excess with a local significance greater than 3.1 sigma anywhere in the search range 110-150 GeV is estimated to be 1.8 sigma. More data are required to ascertain the origin of this excess.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters

Measurement of isolated photon production in pp and PbPb collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 2.76 TeV

Isolated photon production is measured in proton-proton and lead-lead collisions at nucleon-nucleon centre-of-mass energies of 2.76 TeV in the pseudorapidity range |eta|<1.44 and transverse energies ET between 20 and 80 GeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. The measured ET spectra are found to be in good agreement with next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD predictions. The ratio of PbPb to pp isolated photon ET-differential yields, scaled by the number of incoherent nucleon-nucleon collisions, is consistent with unity for all PbPb reaction centralities.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters

Spi-OPS : Spitzer and CHEOPS confirm the near-polar orbit of MASCARA-1 b and reveal a hint of dayside reflection

A.C.C. and T.G.W. acknowledge support from STFC consolidated grant number ST/M001296/1.Context. The light curves of tidally locked hot Jupiters transiting fast-rotating, early-type stars are a rich source of information about both the planet and star, with full-phase coverage enabling a detailed atmospheric characterisation of the planet. Although it is possible to determine the true spin–orbit angle Ψ – a notoriously difficult parameter to measure – from any transit asymmetry resulting from gravity darkening induced by the stellar rotation, the correlations that exist between the transit parameters have led to large disagreements in published values of Ψ for some systems. Aims. We aimed to study these phenomena in the light curves of the ultra-hot Jupiter MASCARA-1 b, which is characteristically similar to well-studied contemporaries such as KELT-9 b and WASP-33 b. Methods. We obtained optical CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS) transit and occultation light curves of MASCARA-1 b, and analysed them jointly with a Spitzer/IRAC 4.5 μm full-phase curve to model the asymmetric transits, occultations, and phase-dependent flux modulation. For the latter, we employed a novel physics-driven approach to jointly fit the phase modulation by generating a single 2D temperature map and integrating it over the two bandpasses as a function of phase to account for the differing planet–star flux contrasts. The reflected light component was modelled using the general ab initio solution for a semi-infinite atmosphere. Results. When fitting the CHEOPS and Spitzer transits together, the degeneracies are greatly diminished and return results consistent with previously published Doppler tomography. Placing priors informed by the tomography achieves even better precision, allowing a determination of Ψ = 72.1−2.4+2.5 deg. From the occultations and phase variations, we derived dayside and nightside temperatures of 3062−68+66 K and 1720 ± 330 K, respectively.Our retrieval suggests that the dayside emission spectrum closely follows that of a blackbody. As the CHEOPS occultation is too deep to be attributed to blackbody flux alone, we could separately derive geometric albedo Ag = 0.171−0.068+0.066 and spherical albedo As = 0.266−0.100+0.097 from the CHEOPS data, and Bond albedoAB = 0.057−0.101+0.083 from the Spitzer phase curve.Although small, the Ag and As indicate that MASCARA-1 b is more reflective than most other ultra-hot Jupiters, where H− absorption is expected to dominate. Conclusions. Where possible, priors informed by Doppler tomography should be used when fitting transits of fast-rotating stars, though multi-colour photometry may also unlock an accurate measurement of Ψ. Our approach to modelling the phase variations at different wavelengths provides a template for how to separate thermal emission from reflected light in spectrally resolved James Webb Space Telescope phase curve data.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A CHEOPS-enhanced view of the HD 3167 system

A. C. C. and T. G. W. acknowledge support from STFC consolidated grant numbers ST/R000824/1 and ST/V000861/1, and UKSA grant number ST/R003203/1.Much remains to be understood about the nature of exoplanets smaller than Neptune, most of which have been discovered in compact multi-planet systems. With its inner ultra-short period planet b aligned with the star and two larger outer planets d-c on polar orbits, the multi-planet system HD 3167 features a peculiar architecture and offers the possibility to investigate both dynamical and atmospheric evolution processes. To this purpose we combined multiple datasets of transit photometry and radial velocimetry (RV) to revise the properties of the system and inform models of its planets. This effort was spearheaded by CHEOPS observations of HD 3167b, which appear inconsistent with a purely rocky composition despite its extreme irradiation. Overall the precision on the planetary orbital periods are improved by an order of magnitude, and the uncertainties on the densities of the transiting planets b and c are decreased by a factor of 3. Internal structure and atmospheric simulations draw a contrasting picture between HD 3167d, likely a rocky super-Earth that lost its atmosphere through photo-evaporation, and HD 3167c, a mini-Neptune that kept a substantial primordial gaseous envelope. We detect a fourth, more massive planet on a larger orbit, likely coplanar with HD 3167d-c. Dynamical simulations indeed show that the outer planetary system d-c-e was tilted, as a whole, early in the system history, when HD 3167b was still dominated by the star influence and maintained its aligned orbit. RV data and direct imaging rule out that the companion that could be responsible for the present-day architecture is still bound to the HD 3167 system. Similar global studies of multi-planet systems will tell how many share the peculiar properties of the HD 3167 system, which remains a target of choice for follow-up observations and simulations. © 2022 EDP Sciences. All rights reserved.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

RICORS2040 : The need for collaborative research in chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a silent and poorly known killer. The current concept of CKD is relatively young and uptake by the public, physicians and health authorities is not widespread. Physicians still confuse CKD with chronic kidney insufficiency or failure. For the wider public and health authorities, CKD evokes kidney replacement therapy (KRT). In Spain, the prevalence of KRT is 0.13%. Thus health authorities may consider CKD a non-issue: very few persons eventually need KRT and, for those in whom kidneys fail, the problem is 'solved' by dialysis or kidney transplantation. However, KRT is the tip of the iceberg in the burden of CKD. The main burden of CKD is accelerated ageing and premature death. The cut-off points for kidney function and kidney damage indexes that define CKD also mark an increased risk for all-cause premature death. CKD is the most prevalent risk factor for lethal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the factor that most increases the risk of death in COVID-19, after old age. Men and women undergoing KRT still have an annual mortality that is 10- to 100-fold higher than similar-age peers, and life expectancy is shortened by ~40 years for young persons on dialysis and by 15 years for young persons with a functioning kidney graft. CKD is expected to become the fifth greatest global cause of death by 2040 and the second greatest cause of death in Spain before the end of the century, a time when one in four Spaniards will have CKD. However, by 2022, CKD will become the only top-15 global predicted cause of death that is not supported by a dedicated well-funded Centres for Biomedical Research (CIBER) network structure in Spain. Realizing the underestimation of the CKD burden of disease by health authorities, the Decade of the Kidney initiative for 2020-2030 was launched by the American Association of Kidney Patients and the European Kidney Health Alliance. Leading Spanish kidney researchers grouped in the kidney collaborative research network Red de Investigación Renal have now applied for the Redes de Investigación Cooperativa Orientadas a Resultados en Salud (RICORS) call for collaborative research in Spain with the support of the Spanish Society of Nephrology, Federación Nacional de Asociaciones para la Lucha Contra las Enfermedades del Riñón and ONT: RICORS2040 aims to prevent the dire predictions for the global 2040 burden of CKD from becoming true

EPIdemiology of Surgery-Associated Acute Kidney Injury (EPIS-AKI) : Study protocol for a multicentre, observational trial

More than 300 million surgical procedures are performed each year. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication after major surgery and is associated with adverse short-term and long-term outcomes. However, there is a large variation in the incidence of reported AKI rates. The establishment of an accurate epidemiology of surgery-associated AKI is important for healthcare policy, quality initiatives, clinical trials, as well as for improving guidelines. The objective of the Epidemiology of Surgery-associated Acute Kidney Injury (EPIS-AKI) trial is to prospectively evaluate the epidemiology of AKI after major surgery using the latest Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) consensus definition of AKI. EPIS-AKI is an international prospective, observational, multicentre cohort study including 10 000 patients undergoing major surgery who are subsequently admitted to the ICU or a similar high dependency unit. The primary endpoint is the incidence of AKI within 72 hours after surgery according to the KDIGO criteria. Secondary endpoints include use of renal replacement therapy (RRT), mortality during ICU and hospital stay, length of ICU and hospital stay and major adverse kidney events (combined endpoint consisting of persistent renal dysfunction, RRT and mortality) at day 90. Further, we will evaluate preoperative and intraoperative risk factors affecting the incidence of postoperative AKI. In an add-on analysis, we will assess urinary biomarkers for early detection of AKI. EPIS-AKI has been approved by the leading Ethics Committee of the Medical Council North Rhine-Westphalia, of the Westphalian Wilhelms-University Münster and the corresponding Ethics Committee at each participating site. Results will be disseminated widely and published in peer-reviewed journals, presented at conferences and used to design further AKI-related trials. Trial registration number NCT04165369