Efficiency of reversible MCMC methods: elementary derivations and applications to composite methods

We review criteria for comparing the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with respect to the asymptotic variance of estimates of expectations of functions of state, and show how such criteria can justify ways of combining improvements to MCMC methods. We say that a chain on a finite state space with transition matrix $P$ efficiency-dominates one with transition matrix $Q$ if for every function of state it has lower (or equal) asymptotic variance. We give elementary proofs of some previous results regarding efficiency dominance, leading to a self-contained demonstration that a reversible chain with transition matrix $P$ efficiency-dominates a reversible chain with transition matrix $Q$ if and only if none of the eigenvalues of $Q-P$ are negative. This allows us to conclude that modifying a reversible MCMC method to improve its efficiency will also improve the efficiency of a method that randomly chooses either this or some other reversible method, and to conclude that improving the efficiency of a reversible update for one component of state (as in Gibbs sampling) will improve the overall efficiency of a reversible method that combines this and other updates. We also establish conditions that can guarantee that a method is not efficiency-dominated by any other method.Comment: 22 page

Stability of adversarial Markov chains, with an application to adaptive MCMC algorithms

We consider whether ergodic Markov chains with bounded step size remain bounded in probability when their transitions are modified by an adversary on a bounded subset. We provide counterexamples to show that the answer is no in general, and prove theorems to show that the answer is yes under various additional assumptions. We then use our results to prove convergence of various adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AAP1083 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The effects of combination canagliflozin and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist therapy on intermediate markers of cardiovascular risk in the CANVAS program

Background: Sodium glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA) reduce cardiovascular events, and improve intermediate markers of cardiometabolic health, in those with type 2 diabetes. We investigated these effects in the CANVAS Program. Methods and results: The CANVAS Program comprised 2 double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trials (CANVAS and CANVAS-R) done in patients with type 2 diabetes and elevated cardiovascular risk. Effects were estimated using mixed-effects models for continuous measures and Cox regression models for other outcomes. Randomized treatment by subgroup interaction terms were used to compare effects of canagliflozin versus placebo across subgroups defined by baseline use of GLP1-RA. There were 10,142 participants, of whom 407 (4%) were using GLP1-RA therapy at baseline. Those using GLP1-RA at baseline were less likely to have a history of cardiovascular disease (60.4% vs 65.8%), had a longer duration of diabetes (152 vs 13.5 years) and a higher body mass index (BMI; 35.6 vs 31.8 kg/m(2)) but were otherwise similar. There were greater reductions with canagliflozin versus placebo for HbA1c (-0.75% versus -0.58%; P = .0091), SBP (-6.26 versus -3.83 mmHg; P = .0018), and body weight (-3.79 versus -2.18 kg; P <.0001) in those on baseline GLP1-RA therapy. Effects across subgroups were similar for UACR (P = .21), eGFR slope (A - .72), major adverse cardiac events (P = .94) and total serious adverse events (P = .74). Conclusions: There may be a synergistic effect of SGLT2 inhibition when used on a background of GLP1-RA for intermediate cardiometabolic markers. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Canagliflozin and Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Chronic Kidney Disease in Primary and Secondary Cardiovascular Prevention Groups: Results from the Randomized CREDENCE Trial

Background: Canagliflozin reduces the risk of kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, but effects on specific cardiovascular outcomes are uncertain, as are effects in people without previous cardiovascular disease (primary prevention). Methods: In CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation), 4401 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease were randomly assigned to canagliflozin or placebo on a background of optimized standard of care. Results: Primary prevention participants (n=2181, 49.6%) were younger (61 versus 65 years), were more often female (37% versus 31%), and had shorter duration of diabetes mellitus (15 years versus 16 years) compared with secondary prevention participants (n=2220, 50.4%). Canagliflozin reduced the risk of major cardiovascular events overall (hazard ratio [HR], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.67-0.95]; P=0.01), with consistent reductions in both the primary (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.49-0.94]) and secondary (HR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.69-1.06]) prevention groups (P for interaction=0.25). Effects were also similar for the components of the composite including cardiovascular death (HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.61-1.00]), nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.59-1.10]), and nonfatal stroke (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.56-1.15]). The risk of the primary composite renal outcome and the composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure were also consistently reduced in both the primary and secondary prevention groups (P for interaction &gt;0.5 for each outcome). Conclusions: Canagliflozin significantly reduced major cardiovascular events and kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, including in participants who did not have previous cardiovascular disease. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02065791

Fast Multispectral Optoacoustic Tomography (MSOT) for Dynamic Imaging of Pharmacokinetics and Biodistribution in Multiple Organs

The characterization of pharmacokinetic and biodistribution profiles is an essential step in the development process of new candidate drugs or imaging agents. Simultaneously, the assessment of organ function related to the uptake and clearance of drugs is of great importance. To this end, we demonstrate an imaging platform capable of high-rate characterization of the dynamics of fluorescent agents in multiple organs using multispectral optoacoustic tomography (MSOT). A spatial resolution of approximately 150 µm through mouse cross-sections allowed us to image blood vessels, the kidneys, the liver and the gall bladder. In particular, MSOT was employed to characterize the removal of indocyanine green from the systemic circulation and its time-resolved uptake in the liver and gallbladder. Furthermore, it was possible to track the uptake of a carboxylate dye in separate regions of the kidneys. The results demonstrate the acquisition of agent concentration metrics at rates of 10 samples per second at a single wavelength and 17 s per multispectral sample with 10 signal averages at each of 5 wavelengths. Overall, such imaging performance introduces previously undocumented capabilities of fast, high resolution in vivo imaging of the fate of optical agents for drug discovery and basic biological research

Measurements of fiducial and differential cross sections for Higgs boson production in the diphoton decay channel at s√=8 TeV with ATLAS

Measurements of fiducial and differential cross sections are presented for Higgs boson production in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=8 TeV. The analysis is performed in the H → γγ decay channel using 20.3 fb−1 of data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The signal is extracted using a fit to the diphoton invariant mass spectrum assuming that the width of the resonance is much smaller than the experimental resolution. The signal yields are corrected for the effects of detector inefficiency and resolution. The pp → H → γγ fiducial cross section is measured to be 43.2 ±9.4(stat.) − 2.9 + 3.2 (syst.) ±1.2(lumi)fb for a Higgs boson of mass 125.4GeV decaying to two isolated photons that have transverse momentum greater than 35% and 25% of the diphoton invariant mass and each with absolute pseudorapidity less than 2.37. Four additional fiducial cross sections and two cross-section limits are presented in phase space regions that test the theoretical modelling of different Higgs boson production mechanisms, or are sensitive to physics beyond the Standard Model. Differential cross sections are also presented, as a function of variables related to the diphoton kinematics and the jet activity produced in the Higgs boson events. The observed spectra are statistically limited but broadly in line with the theoretical expectations

Measurement of the production of a W boson in association with a charm quark in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The production of a W boson in association with a single charm quark is studied using 4.6 fb−1 of pp collision data at s√ = 7 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. In events in which a W boson decays to an electron or muon, the charm quark is tagged either by its semileptonic decay to a muon or by the presence of a charmed meson. The integrated and differential cross sections as a function of the pseudorapidity of the lepton from the W-boson decay are measured. Results are compared to the predictions of next-to-leading-order QCD calculations obtained from various parton distribution function parameterisations. The ratio of the strange-to-down sea-quark distributions is determined to be 0.96+0.26−0.30 at Q 2 = 1.9 GeV2, which supports the hypothesis of an SU(3)-symmetric composition of the light-quark sea. Additionally, the cross-section ratio σ(W + +c¯¯)/σ(W − + c) is compared to the predictions obtained using parton distribution function parameterisations with different assumptions about the s−s¯¯¯ quark asymmetry

Measurement of χ c1 and χ c2 production with s√ = 7 TeV pp collisions at ATLAS

The prompt and non-prompt production cross-sections for the χ c1 and χ c2 charmonium states are measured in pp collisions at s√ = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC using 4.5 fb−1 of integrated luminosity. The χ c states are reconstructed through the radiative decay χ c → J/ψγ (with J/ψ → μ + μ −) where photons are reconstructed from γ → e + e − conversions. The production rate of the χ c2 state relative to the χ c1 state is measured for prompt and non-prompt χ c as a function of J/ψ transverse momentum. The prompt χ c cross-sections are combined with existing measurements of prompt J/ψ production to derive the fraction of prompt J/ψ produced in feed-down from χ c decays. The fractions of χ c1 and χ c2 produced in b-hadron decays are also measured

Search for squarks and gluinos in events with isolated leptons, jets and missing transverse momentum at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for supersymmetry in final states containing at least one isolated lepton (electron or muon), jets and large missing transverse momentum with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider are reported. The search is based on proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy s√=8 TeV collected in 2012, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20 fb−1. No significant excess above the Standard Model expectation is observed. Limits are set on supersymmetric particle masses for various supersymmetric models. Depending on the model, the search excludes gluino masses up to 1.32 TeV and squark masses up to 840 GeV. Limits are also set on the parameters of a minimal universal extra dimension model, excluding a compactification radius of 1/R c = 950 GeV for a cut-off scale times radius (ΛR c) of approximately 30