The compression of deaths above the mode

Kannisto (2001) has shown that as the frequency distribution of ages at death has shifted to the right, the age distribution of deaths above the modal age has become more compressed. In order to further investigate this old-age mortality compression, we adopt the simple logistic model with two parameters, which is known to fit data on old-age mortality well (Thatcher 1999). Based on the model, we show that three key measures of old-age mortality (the modal age of adult deaths, the life expectancy at the modal age, and the standard deviation of ages at death above the mode) can be estimated fairly accurately from death rates at only two suitably chosen high ages (70 and 90 in this study). The distribution of deaths above the modal age becomes compressed when the logits of death rates fall more at the lower age than at the higher age. Our analysis of mortality time series in six countries, using the logistic model, endorsed Kannisto’s conclusion. Some possible reasons for the compression are discussed.compression of mortality, lexis model, logistic model, modal age of death, oldest old mortality decline, standard deviation

Changes in (risk) behavior and HPV knowledge among Dutch girls eligible for HPV vaccination: an observational cohort study.

Implementation of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination raised concerns that vaccination could lead to riskier sexual behavior. This study explored how possible differences in sexual behavior and HPV knowledge developed over time between HPV-vaccinated and unvaccinated girls

Routine HIV Screening in Portugal: Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness

Objective: To compare the clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of routine HIV screening in Portugal to the current practice of targeted and on-demand screening. Design: We used Portuguese national clinical and economic data to conduct a model-based assessment. Methods: We compared current HIV detection practices to strategies of increasingly frequent routine HIV screening in Portuguese adults aged 18-69. We considered several subpopulations and geographic regions with varying levels of undetected HIV prevalence and incidence. Baseline inputs for the national case included undiagnosed HIV prevalence 0.16%, annual incidence 0.03%, mean population age 43 years, mean CD4 count at care initiation 292 cells/μL, 63% HIV test acceptance, 78% linkage to care, and HIV rapid test cost €6 under the proposed routine screening program. Outcomes included quality-adjusted survival, secondary HIV transmission, cost, and incremental cost-effectiveness. Results: One-time national HIV screening increased HIV-infected survival from 164.09 quality-adjusted life months (QALMs) to 166.83 QALMs compared to current practice and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €28,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Screening more frequently in higher-risk groups was cost-effective: for example screening annually in men who have sex with men or screening every three years in regions with higher incidence and prevalence produced ICERs of €21,000/QALY and €34,000/QALY, respectively. Conclusions: One-time HIV screening in the Portuguese national population will increase survival and is cost-effective by international standards. More frequent screening in higher-risk regions and subpopulations is also justified. Given Portugal’s challenging economic priorities, we recommend prioritizing screening in higher-risk populations and geographic settings

A randomized trial to optimize HIV/TB care in South Africa: design of the Sizanani trial

Background: Despite increases in HIV testing, only a fraction of people newly diagnosed with HIV infection enter the care system and initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa. We report on the design and initial enrollment of a randomized trial of a health system navigator intervention to improve linkage to HIV care and TB treatment completion in Durban, South Africa. Methods/Design We employed a multi-site randomized controlled trial design. Patients at 4 outpatient sites were enrolled prior to HIV testing. For all HIV-infected participants, routine TB screening with sputum for mycobacterial smear and culture were collected. HIV-infected participants were randomized to receive the health system navigator intervention or usual care. Participants in the navigator arm underwent a baseline interview using a strengths-based case management approach to assist in identifying barriers to entering care and devising solutions to best cope with perceived barriers. Over 4 months, participants in the navigator arm received scheduled phone and text messages. The primary outcome of the study is linkage and retention in care, assessed 9 months after enrollment. For ART-eligible participants without TB, the primary outcome is 3 months on ART as documented in the medical record; participants co-infected with TB are also eligible to meet the primary outcome of completion of 6 months of TB treatment, as documented by the TB clinic. Secondary outcomes include mortality, receipt of CD4 count and TB test results, and repeat CD4 counts for those not ART-eligible at baseline. We hypothesize that a health system navigator can help identify and positively affect modifiable patient factors, including self-efficacy and social support, that in turn can improve linkage to and retention in HIV and TB care. Discussion We are currently evaluating the clinical impact of a novel health system navigator intervention to promote entry to and retention in HIV and TB care for people newly diagnosed with HIV. The details of this study protocol will inform clinicians, investigators, and policy makers of strategies to best support HIV-infected patients in resource-limited settings. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov. unique identifier: NCT01188941

Human longevity is influenced by many genetic variants: evidence from 75,000 UK Biobank participants

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Variation in human lifespan is 20 to 30% heritable in twins but few genetic variants have been identified. We undertook a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) using age at death of parents of middle-aged UK Biobank participants of European decent (n=75,244 with father's and/or mother's data, excluding early deaths). Genetic risk scores for 19 phenotypes (n=777 proven variants) were also tested. In GWAS, a nicotine receptor locus(CHRNA3, previously associated with increased smoking and lung cancer) was associated with fathers' survival. Less common variants requiring further confirmation were also identified. Offspring of longer lived parents had more protective alleles for coronary artery disease, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol and triglyceride levels, type-1 diabetes, inflammatory bowel disease and Alzheimer's disease. In candidate analyses, variants in the TOMM40/APOE locus were associated with longevity, but FOXO variants were not. Associations between extreme longevity (mother >=98 years, fathers >=95 years, n=1,339) and disease alleles were similar, with an additional association with HDL cholesterol (p=5.7x10-3). These results support a multiple protective factors model influencing lifespan and longevity (top 1% survival) in humans, with prominent roles for cardiovascular-related pathways. Several of these genetically influenced risks, including blood pressure and tobacco exposure, are potentially modifiable.This work was generously funded by an award to DM, TF, AM, LH and CB by the Medical Research Council MR/M023095/1. This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource, under application 1417. The authors wish to thank the UK Biobank participants and coordinators for this unique dataset. S.E.J. is funded by the Medical Research Council (grant: MR/M005070/1). J.T. is funded by a Diabetes Research and Wellness Foundation Fellowship. R.B. is funded by the Wellcome Trust and Royal Society grant: 104150/Z/14/Z. M.A.T., M.N.W. and A.M. are supported by the Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Award (WT097835MF). R.M.F. is a Sir Henry Dale Fellow (Wellcome Trust and Royal Society grant: 104150/Z/14/Z). A.R.W. H.Y., and T.M.F. are supported by the European Research Council grant: 323195:GLUCOSEGENES-FP7-IDEAS-ERC. The funders had no influence on study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The Framingham Heart Study is supported by Contract No. N01-HC-25195 and HHSN268201500001I and its contract with Affymetrix, Inc for genotyping services (Contract No. N02-HL-6-4278). The phenotypegenotype association analyses were supported by National Institute of Aging R01AG29451. This work has made use of the resources provided by the University of Exeter Science Strategy and resulting Systems Biology initiative. Primarily these include high-performance computing facilities managed by Konrad Paszkiewicz of the College of Environmental and Life Sciences and Pete Leggett of the University of Exeter Academics services unit

Budding yeast ATM/ATR control meiotic double-strand break (DSB) levels by down-regulating Rec114, an essential component of the DSB-machinery

An essential feature of meiosis is Spo11 catalysis of programmed DNA double strand breaks (DSBs). Evidence suggests that the number of DSBs generated per meiosis is genetically determined and that this ability to maintain a pre-determined DSB level, or "DSB homeostasis", might be a property of the meiotic program. Here, we present direct evidence that Rec114, an evolutionarily conserved essential component of the meiotic DSB-machinery, interacts with DSB hotspot DNA, and that Tel1 and Mec1, the budding yeast ATM and ATR, respectively, down-regulate Rec114 upon meiotic DSB formation through phosphorylation. Mimicking constitutive phosphorylation reduces the interaction between Rec114 and DSB hotspot DNA, resulting in a reduction and/or delay in DSB formation. Conversely, a non-phosphorylatable rec114 allele confers a genome-wide increase in both DSB levels and in the interaction between Rec114 and the DSB hotspot DNA. These observations strongly suggest that Tel1 and/or Mec1 phosphorylation of Rec114 following Spo11 catalysis down-regulates DSB formation by limiting the interaction between Rec114 and DSB hotspots. We also present evidence that Ndt80, a meiosis specific transcription factor, contributes to Rec114 degradation, consistent with its requirement for complete cessation of DSB formation. Loss of Rec114 foci from chromatin is associated with homolog synapsis but independent of Ndt80 or Tel1/Mec1 phosphorylation. Taken together, we present evidence for three independent ways of regulating Rec114 activity, which likely contribute to meiotic DSBs-homeostasis in maintaining genetically determined levels of breaks

Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

In this work the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1°C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e. when UTCI is above 26°C and 32°C. The UTCI’s ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health

Obesity, smoking, alcohol consumption and years lived with disability: A Sullivan life table approach

Background: To avoid strong declines in the quality of life due to population ageing, and to ensure sustainability of the health care system, reductions in the burden of disability among elderly populations are urgently needed. Life style interventions may help to reduce the years lived with one or more disabilities, but it is not fully understood which life style factor has the largest potential for such reductions. Therefore, the primary aim of this paper is to compare the effect of BMI, smoking and alcohol consumption on life expectancy with disability, using the Sullivan life table method. A secondary aim is to assess potential improvement of the Sullivan method by using information on the association of disability with time to death. Methods. Data from the Dutch Permanent Survey of the Living Situation (POLS) 1997-1999 with mortality follow-up until 2006 (n = 6,446) were used. Using estimated relative mortality risks by risk factor exposure, separate life tables were constructed for groups defined in terms of BMI, smoking status and alcohol consumption. Logistic regression models were fitted to predict the prevalence of ADL and mobility disabilities in relationship to age and risk factor exposure. Using the Sullivan method, predicted age-specific prevalence rates were included in the life table to calculate years lived with disability at age 55. In further analysis we assessed whether adding information on time to death in both the regression models and the life table estimates would lead to substantive changes in the results. Results: Life expectancy at age 55 differed by 1.4 years among groups defined in terms of BMI, 4.0 years by smoking status, and 3.0 years by alcohol consumption. Years lived with disability differed by 2.8 years according to BMI, 0.2 years by smoking and 1.6 by alcohol consumption. Obese persons could expect to live more years with disability (5.9 years) than smokers (3.8 years) and drinkers (3.1 years). Employing information on time to death led to lower estimates of years lived with disability, and to smaller differences in these years according to BMI (2.1 years), alcohol (1.2 years), and smoking (0.1 years). Conclusions: Compared with smoking and drinking alcohol, obesity is most strongly associated with an increased risk of spending many years of life with disability. Although employing information on the relation of disability with time to death improves the precision of Sullivan life table estimates, the relative importance of risk factors remained unchanged

BUILDING BRIDGES FOR INNOVATION IN AGEING : SYNERGIES BETWEEN ACTION GROUPS OF THE EIP ON AHA

The Strategic Implementation Plan of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA) proposed six Action Groups. After almost three years of activity, many achievements have been obtained through commitments or collaborative work of the Action Groups. However, they have often worked in silos and, consequently, synergies between Action Groups have been proposed to strengthen the triple win of the EIP on AHA. The paper presents the methodology and current status of the Task Force on EIP on AHA synergies. Synergies are in line with the Action Groups' new Renovated Action Plan (2016-2018) to ensure that their future objectives are coherent and fully connected. The outcomes and impact of synergies are using the Monitoring and Assessment Framework for the EIP on AHA (MAFEIP). Eight proposals for synergies have been approved by the Task Force: Five cross-cutting synergies which can be used for all current and future synergies as they consider overarching domains (appropriate polypharmacy, citizen empowerment, teaching and coaching on AHA, deployment of synergies to EU regions, Responsible Research and Innovation), and three cross-cutting synergies focussing on current Action Group activities (falls, frailty, integrated care and chronic respiratory diseases).Peer reviewe

Gender differences in health of EU10 and EU15 populations: the double burden of EU10 men

This study compares gender differences in Healthy Life Years (HLY) and unhealthy life years (ULY) between the original (EU15) and new member states (EU10). Based on the number of deaths, population and prevalence of activity limitations from the Statistics of Living and Income Conditions Survey (SILC) survey, we calculated HLY and ULY for the EU10 and EU15 in 2006 with the Sullivan method. We used decomposition analysis to assess the contributions of mortality and disability and age to gender differences in HLY and ULY. HLY at age 15 for women in the EU10 were 3.1 years more than those for men at the same age, whereas HLY did not differ by gender in the EU15. In both populations ULY at age 15 for women exceeded those for men by 5.5 years. Decomposition showed that EU10 women had more HLY because higher disability in women only partially offset (−0.8 years) the effect of lower mortality (+3.9 years). In the EU15 women’s higher disability prevalence almost completely offset women’s lower mortality. The 5.3 fewer ULY in EU10 men than in EU10 women mainly reflected higher male mortality (4.5 years), while the fewer ULY in EU15 men than in EU15 women reflected both higher male mortality (2.9 years) and higher female disability (2.6 years). The absence of a clear gender gap in HLY in the EU15 thus masked important gender differences in mortality and disability. The similar size of the gender gap in ULY in the EU-10 and EU-15 masked the more unfavourable health situation of EU10 men, in particular the much stronger and younger mortality disadvantage in combination with the virtually absent disability advantage below age 65 in men