Do Survey Probabilities Match Financial Market Beliefs?

This article considers whether survey respondents’ views regarding the likelihood of stock index returns exceeding specific thresholds are comparable to market views indicated by index options with strikes at analogous thresholds. It is motivated by the observation that the wording used to elicit subjective beliefs in surveys about expected future returns resembles the question a purchaser of a call option might ask. Building on this association, the authors document a similarity between the views of survey respondents and those of financial market participants as measured through call options, although the association is not 1-for-1. They find a closer association for those demonstrating a better understanding of the laws of probability, suggesting that numeracy affects the accuracy of an elicited response

The use of a smartphone app and an activity tracker to promote physical activity in the management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease : randomized controlled feasibility study

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is highly prevalent and significantly affects the daily functioning of patients. Self-management strategies, including increasing physical activity, can help people with COPD have better health and a better quality of life. Digital mobile health (mHealth) techniques have the potential to aid the delivery of self-management interventions for COPD. We developed an mHealth intervention (Self-Management supported by Assistive, Rehabilitative, and Telehealth technologies-COPD [SMART-COPD]), delivered via a smartphone app and an activity tracker, to help people with COPD maintain (or increase) physical activity after undertaking pulmonary rehabilitation (PR). Objective: This study aimed to determine the feasibility and acceptability of using the SMART-COPD intervention for the self-management of physical activity and to explore the feasibility of conducting a future randomized controlled trial (RCT) to investigate its effectiveness. Methods: We conducted a randomized feasibility study. A total of 30 participants with COPD were randomly allocated to receive the SMART-COPD intervention (n=19) or control (n=11). Participants used SMART-COPD throughout PR and for 8 weeks afterward (ie, maintenance) to set physical activity goals and monitor their progress. Questionnaire-based and physical activity–based outcome measures were taken at baseline, the end of PR, and the end of maintenance. Participants, and health care professionals involved in PR delivery, were interviewed about their experiences with the technology. Results: Overall, 47% (14/30) of participants withdrew from the study. Difficulty in using the technology was a common reason for withdrawal. Participants who completed the study had better baseline health and more prior experience with digital technology, compared with participants who withdrew. Participants who completed the study were generally positive about the technology and found it easy to use. Some participants felt their health had benefitted from using the technology and that it assisted them in achieving physical activity goals. Activity tracking and self-reporting were both found to be problematic as outcome measures of physical activity for this study. There was dissatisfaction among some control group members regarding their allocation. Conclusions: mHealth shows promise in helping people with COPD self-manage their physical activity levels. mHealth interventions for COPD self-management may be more acceptable to people with prior experience of using digital technology and may be more beneficial if used at an earlier stage of COPD. Simplicity and usability were more important for engagement with the SMART-COPD intervention than personalization; therefore, the intervention should be simplified for future use. Future evaluation will require consideration of individual factors and their effect on mHealth efficacy and use; within-subject comparison of step count values; and an opportunity for control group participants to use the intervention if an RCT were to be carried out. Sample size calculations for a future evaluation would need to consider the high dropout rates

A two-component pre-seeded dermal-epidermal scaffold

We have developed a bilayered dermal-epidermal scaffold for application in the treatment of full-thickness skin defects. The dermal component gels in situ and adapts to the lesion shape, delivering human dermal fibroblasts in a matrix of fibrin and cross-linked hyaluronic acid modified with a cell adhesion-promoting peptide. Fibroblasts were able to form a tridimensional matrix due to material features such as tailored mechanical properties, presence of protease-degradable elements and cell-binding ligands. The epidermal component is a robust membrane containing cross-linked hyaluronic acid and poly-l-lysine, on which keratinocytes were able to attach and to form a monolayer. Amine-aldehyde bonding at the interface between the two components allows the formation of a tightly bound composite scaffold. Both parts of the scaffold were designed to provide cell-type-specific cues to allow for cell proliferation and form a construct that mimics the skin environment.D.S.K. acknowledges funding from the Biotechnology Research Endowment from the Department of Anesthesiology at Boston Children's Hospital. I.P.M. acknowledges the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology for the grant BD/39396/2007 and the MIT-Portugal Program. D.G. acknowledges the Swiss National Science Foundation for a post-doctoral fellowship (PBGEP3-129111). B.P.T. acknowledges an NIR Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Award (F32GM096546)

Eco-evolutionary dynamics on deformable fitness landscapes

Conventional approaches to modelling ecological dynamics often do not include evolutionary changes in the genetic makeup of component species and, conversely, conventional approaches to modelling evolutionary changes in the genetic makeup of a population often do not include ecological dynamics. But recently there has been considerable interest in understanding the interaction of evolutionary and ecological dynamics as coupled processes. However, in the context of complex multi-species ecosytems, especially where ecological and evolutionary timescales are similar, it is difficult to identify general organising principles that help us understand the structure and behaviour of complex ecosystems. Here we introduce a simple abstraction of coevolutionary interactions in a multi-species ecosystem. We model non-trophic ecological interactions based on a continuous but low-dimensional trait/niche space, where the location of each species in trait space affects the overlap of its resource utilisation with that of other species. The local depletion of available resources creates, in effect, a deformable fitness landscape that governs how the evolution of one species affects the selective pressures on other species. This enables us to study the coevolution of ecological interactions in an intuitive and easily visualisable manner. We observe that this model can exhibit either of the two behavioural modes discussed in the literature; namely, evolutionary stasis or Red Queen dynamics, i.e., continued evolutionary change. We find that which of these modes is observed depends on the lag or latency between the movement of a species in trait space and its effect on available resources. Specifically, if ecological change is nearly instantaneous compared to evolutionary change, stasis results; but conversely, if evolutionary timescales are closer to ecological timescales, such that resource depletion is not instantaneous on evolutionary timescales, then Red Queen dynamics result. We also observe that in the stasis mode, the overall utilisation of resources by the ecosystem is relatively efficient, with diverse species utilising different niches, whereas in the Red Queen mode the organisation of the ecosystem is such that species tend to clump together competing for overlapping resources. These models thereby suggest some basic conditions that influence the organisation of inter-species interactions and the balance of individual and collective adaptation in ecosystems, and likewise they also suggest factors that might be useful in engineering artificial coevolution

Search for displaced vertices arising from decays of new heavy particles in 7 TeV pp collisions at ATLAS

We present the results of a search for new, heavy particles that decay at a significant distance from their production point into a final state containing charged hadrons in association with a high-momentum muon. The search is conducted in a pp-collision data sample with a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV and an integrated luminosity of 33 pb^-1 collected in 2010 by the ATLAS detector operating at the Large Hadron Collider. Production of such particles is expected in various scenarios of physics beyond the standard model. We observe no signal and place limits on the production cross-section of supersymmetric particles in an R-parity-violating scenario as a function of the neutralino lifetime. Limits are presented for different squark and neutralino masses, enabling extension of the limits to a variety of other models.Comment: 8 pages plus author list (20 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version to appear in Physics Letters

Measurement of the polarisation of W bosons produced with large transverse momentum in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS experiment

This paper describes an analysis of the angular distribution of W->enu and W->munu decays, using data from pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in 2010, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 35 pb^-1. Using the decay lepton transverse momentum and the missing transverse energy, the W decay angular distribution projected onto the transverse plane is obtained and analysed in terms of helicity fractions f0, fL and fR over two ranges of W transverse momentum (ptw): 35 < ptw < 50 GeV and ptw > 50 GeV. Good agreement is found with theoretical predictions. For ptw > 50 GeV, the values of f0 and fL-fR, averaged over charge and lepton flavour, are measured to be : f0 = 0.127 +/- 0.030 +/- 0.108 and fL-fR = 0.252 +/- 0.017 +/- 0.030, where the first uncertainties are statistical, and the second include all systematic effects.Comment: 19 pages plus author list (34 pages total), 9 figures, 11 tables, revised author list, matches European Journal of Physics C versio

Observation of a new chi_b state in radiative transitions to Upsilon(1S) and Upsilon(2S) at ATLAS

The chi_b(nP) quarkonium states are produced in proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV and recorded by the ATLAS detector. Using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.4 fb^-1, these states are reconstructed through their radiative decays to Upsilon(1S,2S) with Upsilon->mu+mu-. In addition to the mass peaks corresponding to the decay modes chi_b(1P,2P)->Upsilon(1S)gamma, a new structure centered at a mass of 10.530+/-0.005 (stat.)+/-0.009 (syst.) GeV is also observed, in both the Upsilon(1S)gamma and Upsilon(2S)gamma decay modes. This is interpreted as the chi_b(3P) system.Comment: 5 pages plus author list (18 pages total), 2 figures, 1 table, corrected author list, matches final version in Physical Review Letter

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

Measurement of the inclusive isolated prompt photon cross-section in pp collisions at sqrt(s)= 7 TeV using 35 pb-1 of ATLAS data

A measurement of the differential cross-section for the inclusive production of isolated prompt photons in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy sqrt(s) = 7 TeV is presented. The measurement covers the pseudorapidity ranges |eta|<1.37 and 1.52<=|eta|<2.37 in the transverse energy range 45<=E_T<400GeV. The results are based on an integrated luminosity of 35 pb-1, collected with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The yields of the signal photons are measured using a data-driven technique, based on the observed distribution of the hadronic energy in a narrow cone around the photon candidate and the photon selection criteria. The results are compared with next-to-leading order perturbative QCD calculations and found to be in good agreement over four orders of magnitude in cross-section.Comment: 7 pages plus author list (18 pages total), 2 figures, 4 tables, final version published in Physics Letters

Reducing heterotic M-theory to five dimensional supergravity on a manifold with boundary

This paper constructs the reduction of heterotic $M$-theory in eleven dimensions to a supergravity model on a manifold with boundary in five dimensions using a Calabi-Yau three-fold. New results are presented for the boundary terms in the action and for the boundary conditions on the bulk fields. Some general features of dualisation on a manifold with boundary are used to explain the origin of some topological terms in the action. The effect of gaugino condensation on the fermion boundary conditions leads to a `twist' in the chirality of the gravitino which can provide an uplifting mechanism in the vacuum energy to cancel the cosmological constant after moduli stabilisation.Comment: 16 pages, RevTe