Personalized monitoring of electrical remodelling during atrial fibrillation progression via remote transmissions from implantable devices

Atrial electrical remodelling (AER) is a transitional period associated with the progression and long-term maintenance of atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to study the progression of AER in individual patients with implantable devices and AF episodes. Observational multicentre study (51 centres) including 4618 patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillator and results þ/resynchronization therapy (ICD/CRT-D) and 352 patients (2 centres) with pacemakers (median follow-up: 3.4 years). Atrial activation rate (AAR) was quantified as the frequency of the dominant peak in the signal spectrum of AF episodes with atrial bipolar electrograms. Patients with complete progression of AER, from paroxysmal AF episodes to electrically remodelled persistent AF, were used to depict patient-specific AER slopes. A total of 34 712 AF tracings from 830 patients (87 with pacemakers) were suitable for the study. Complete progression of AER was documented in 216 patients (16 with pacemakers). Patients with persistent AF after completion of AER showed ∼30% faster AAR than patients with paroxysmal AF. The slope of AAR changes during AF progression revealed patient-specific patterns that correlated with the time-to-completion of AER (R = 0.85). Pacemaker patients were older than patients with ICD/CRT-Ds (78.3 vs. 67.2 year olds, respectively, P < 0.001) and had a shorter median time-to-completion of AER (24.9 vs. 93.5 days, respectively, P = 0.016). Remote transmissions in patients with ICD/CRT-D devices enabled the estimation of the time-to-completion of AER using the predicted slope of AAR changes from initiation to completion of electrical remodelling (R = 0.45). The AF progression shows patient-specific patterns of AER, which can be estimated using available remote-monitoring technology

Personalized monitoring of electrical remodelling during atrial fibrillation progression via remote transmissions from implantable devices

Aims: Atrial electrical remodelling (AER) is a transitional period associated with the progression and long-term maintenance of atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to study the progression of AER in individual patients with implantable devices and AF episodes. Methods and results: Observational multicentre study (51 centres) including 4618 patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillator +/-resynchronization therapy (ICD/CRT-D) and 352 patients (2 centres) with pacemakers (median follow-up: 3.4 years). Atrial activation rate (AAR) was quantified as the frequency of the dominant peak in the signal spectrum of AF episodes with atrial bipolar electrograms. Patients with complete progression of AER, from paroxysmal AF episodes to electrically remodelled persistent AF, were used to depict patient-specific AER slopes. A total of 34 712 AF tracings from 830 patients (87 with pacemakers) were suitable for the study. Complete progression of AER was documented in 216 patients (16 with pacemakers). Patients with persistent AF after completion of AER showed ∼30% faster AAR than patients with paroxysmal AF. The slope of AAR changes during AF progression revealed patient-specific patterns that correlated with the time-to-completion of AER (R2 = 0.85). Pacemaker patients were older than patients with ICD/CRT-Ds (78.3 vs. 67.2 year olds, respectively, P < 0.001) and had a shorter median time-to-completion of AER (24.9 vs. 93.5 days, respectively, P = 0.016). Remote transmissions in patients with ICD/CRT-D devices enabled the estimation of the time-to-completion of AER using the predicted slope of AAR changes from initiation to completion of electrical remodelling (R2 = 0.45). Conclusion: The AF progression shows patient-specific patterns of AER, which can be estimated using available remote-monitoring technology

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60�900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index SDI) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval UI 15·4�19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30�2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35�2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20�30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

A trait-based approach in a Mediterranean vineyard: Effects of agricultural management on the functional structure of plant communities

In recent years, rainfed vineyards in the Mediterranean basin are being replaced by irrigated vineyards in some areas, a phenomenon that is expected to increase due to climate change. At the same time, the use of plant cover in vineyards has emerged as an alternative to other weed management practices (e.g., herbicide, tillage). Knowing how weed communities respond to these practices is essential to develop new and more sustainable vineyard management systems. However, there is a lack of research on this issue. This work examines, from a trait-based approach, the effects of weed management (herbicide, mowing, tillage), and deficit drip irrigation (irrigated, non-irrigated) on the functional structure of plant communities in a Mediterranean vineyard. Plant sampling was conducted from 2015 to 2018 in a previously established experiment in 2008. The experimental design was randomized blocks with four replications, including four management systems. Data for ten plant traits were collected from several databases and research work. The community-weighted mean of trait values were calculated, and RLQ and fourth-corner analyses were performed to establish the relationship between species-traits and management practices. In addition, functional groups were extracted by means of a cluster analysis on the RLQ ordination space and the Grime’s life strategy (CSR strategy) was computed to explore possible similarities with the functional structure of the community. A total of 29 herbaceous species were selected for their highest occurrence for statistical analysis. Results indicated that tillage and mowing were the main factors conditioning the functional structure of plant communities in this study. In general, weed management significantly affected leaf economics and regenerative traits, while irrigation influenced traits related to plant size. Phenological traits emerged as a major factor in understanding the response of plant communities to weed management practices. Furthermore, up to five functional groups were identified and associated with different management practices. Functional structure of the plant communities studied was consistent with CSR strategy, which showed a strong association with agricultural management. Irrigation favoured species with a more competitive strategy. Conversely, mowing in spontaneous plant cover limited the occurrence of these competitive species. This study provides knowledge about the ecology and plant traits that could contribute to the development of more sustainable weed management.This work was supported by the Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), through the Project AGL2017-83325-C4-1-R. The lead author has been beneficiary of the Spanish Predoctoral research grant FPI-INIA2016-00035.Peer reviewe

Is propylene oxide induced cell proliferation in rat nasal respiratory epithelium mediated by a severe depletion of water-soluble non-protein thiol?

Propylene oxide (PO) concentrations &gt;or=300 ppm induced cell proliferation and tumors in rat nasal respiratory epithelium (NRE). Cell proliferation was suggested to result from depletion of glutathione (GSH) in NRE. In order to substantiate this hypothesis, cell proliferation - measured by bromodeoxyuridine incorporation into DNA of the epithelium lining middle septum, dorsal medial meatus, and medial and lateral surfaces of the nasoturbinate in transverse nasal sections taken immediately posterior to the upper incisor teeth - and water-soluble non-protein thiol (NPSH) in NRE were determined after exposing male Fischer 344 rats to 50 ppm, 100 ppm, 200 ppm, or 300 ppm PO (6 h/day, 3 days). Both parameters were also investigated after treating rats for 3 days with diethylmaleate (DEM; 2 x 250 mg/kg/day or 500 + 150 mg/kg/day) or buthionine sulfoximine (BSO; 500 mg/kg/day). Exposure to 50 ppm PO and treatment with 2 x2 50 mg/kg/day DEM resulted in NPSH levels approximating 50% and 80% of the level in untreated controls, respectively. Cell proliferation did not increase. After exposures to &gt;or= 100 ppm PO or treatment with BSO or 500 + 150 mg/kg/day DEM, NPSH was depleted t