Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Expression of different survivin variants in gastric carcinomas: first clues to a role of survivin-2B in tumour progression

Survivin is a novel member of the inhibitor of apoptosis family and determines the susceptibility of tumour cells to pro-apoptotic stimuli. Recently, we identified two novel alternative splice variants of survivin, differing in their anti-apoptotic properties: whereas the anti-apoptotic potential of survivin-ΔEx3 is preserved, survivin-2B has lost its anti-apoptotic potential and may act as a naturally occurring antagonist of survivin. Because the in vivo expression of these alternative splice variants has not been explored so far, we analysed gastric carcinomas of different histological subtypes, grades and stages. Since no antibodies are currently available to determine the novel splice variants, quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction was performed, using RNA samples obtained from 30 different gastric carcinomas. Polymerase chain reactions products were quantified by densitometric evaluation. We found that all gastric carcinomas, irrespective of their histological types, grades or stages, express survivin-ΔEx3, survivin-2B and survivin, the latter being the dominant transcript. Comparing the disease stages I+II with III+IV, expression of survivin and survivin-ΔEx3 remained unchanged. In contrast, a significant (P=0.033) stage-dependent decrease in the expression of survivin-2B became evident. Our study demonstrates for the first time the expression of alternative splice variants in gastric carcinomas and provides a first clue to a role of survivin-2B in tumour progression

Reduced microvascular density in omental biopsies of children with chronic kidney disease

Endothelial dysfunction is an early manifestation of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and consistently observed in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We hypothesized that CKD is associated with systemic damage to the microcirculation, preceding macrovascular pathology. To assess the degree of "uremic microangiopathy", we have measured microvascular density in biopsies of the omentum of children with CKD.Omental tissue was collected from 32 healthy children (0-18 years) undergoing elective abdominal surgery and from 23 age-matched cases with stage 5 CKD at the time of catheter insertion for initiation of peritoneal dialysis. Biopsies were analyzed by independent observers using either a manual or an automated imaging system for the assessment of microvascular density. Quantitative immunohistochemistry was performed for markers of autophagy and apoptosis, and for the abundance of the angiogenesis-regulating proteins VEGF-A, VEGF-R2, Angpt1 and Angpt2.Microvascular density was significantly reduced in uremic children compared to healthy controls, both by manual imaging with a digital microscope (median surface area 0.61% vs. 0.95%, p<0.0021 and by automated quantification (total microvascular surface area 0.89% vs. 1.17% p = 0.01). Density measured by manual imaging was significantly associated with age, height, weight and body surface area in CKD patients and healthy controls. In multivariate analysis, age and serum creatinine level were the only independent, significant predictors of microvascular density (r2 = 0.73). There was no immunohistochemical evidence for apoptosis or autophagy. Quantitative staining showed similar expression levels of the angiogenesis regulators VEGF-A, VEGF-receptor 2 and Angpt1 (p = 0.11), but Angpt2 was significantly lower in CKD children (p = 0.01).Microvascular density is profoundly reduced in omental biopsies of children with stage 5 CKD and associated with diminished Angpt2 signaling. Microvascular rarefaction could be an early systemic manifestation of CKD-induced cardiovascular disease

Comparative Study on the Therapeutic Potential of Neurally Differentiated Stem Cells in a Mouse Model of Multiple Sclerosis

Background: Transplantation of neural stem cells (NSCs) is a promising novel approach to the treatment of neuroinflammatory diseases such as multiple sclerosis (MS). NSCs can be derived from primary central nervous system (CNS) tissue or obtained by neural differentiation of embryonic stem (ES) cells, the latter having the advantage of readily providing an unlimited number of cells for therapeutic purposes. Using a mouse model of MS, we evaluated the therapeutic potential of NSCs derived from ES cells by two different neural differentiation protocols that utilized adherent culture conditions and compared their effect to primary NSCs derived from the subventricular zone (SVZ). Methodology/Principal Findings: The proliferation and secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines by antigen-stimulated splenocytes was reduced in the presence of SVZ-NSCs, while ES cell-derived NSCs exerted differential immunosuppressive effects. Surprisingly, intravenously injected NSCs displayed no significant therapeutic impact on clinical and pathological disease outcomes in mice with experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) induced by recombinant myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein, independent of the cell source. Studies tracking the biodistribution of transplanted ES cellderived NSCs revealed that these cells were unable to traffic to the CNS or peripheral lymphoid tissues, consistent with the lack of cell surface homing molecules. Attenuation of peripheral immune responses could only be achieved through multiple high doses of NSCs administered intraperitoneally, which led to some neuroprotective effects within the CNS

Association between Alcohol Consumption and Cancers in the Chinese Population—A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Alcohol consumption is increasing worldwide and is associated with numerous cancers. This systematic review examined the role of alcohol in the incidence of cancer in the Chinese population.Medline/PubMed, EMBASE, CNKI and VIP were searched to identify relevant studies. Cohort and case-control studies on the effect of alcohol use on cancers in Chinese were included. Study quality was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Data were independently abstracted by two reviewers. Odds ratios (OR) or relative risks (RR) were pooled using RevMan 5.0. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the Q test and I-squared statistic. P<.01 was considered statistically significant.Pooled results from cohort studies indicated that alcohol consumption was not associated with gastric cancer, esophageal cancers (EC) or lung cancer. Meta-analysis of case-control studies showed that alcohol consumption was a significant risk factor for five cancers; the pooled ORs were 1.79 (99% CI, 1.47–2.17) EC, 1.40 (99% CI, 1.19–1.64) gastric cancer, 1.56 (99% CI, 1.16–2.09) hepatocellular carcinoma, 1.21 (99% CI, 1.00–1.46) nasopharyngeal cancer and 1.71 (99% CI, 1.20–2.44) oral cancer. Pooled ORs of the case-control studies showed that alcohol consumption was protective for female breast cancer and gallbladder cancer: OR 0.76 (99% CI, 0.60–0.97) and 0.70 (99% CI, 0.49–1.00) respectively. There was no significant correlation between alcohol consumption and lung cancer, colorectal cancer, pancreatic cancer, cancer of the ampulla of Vater, prostate cancer or extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Combined results of case-control and cohort studies showed that alcohol consumption was associated with 1.78- and 1.40-fold higher risks of EC and gastric cancer but was not significantly associated with lung cancer.Health programs focused on limiting alcohol intake may be important for cancer control in China. Further studies are needed to examine the interaction between alcohol consumption and other risk factors for cancers in Chinese and other populations

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015.Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores.Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15.4-19.2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2.39 billion, 2.30-2.50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2.36 billion (2.35-2.37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.</p

Cationic Host Defence Peptides:Potential as Antiviral Therapeutics

There is a pressing need to develop new antiviral treatments; of the 60 drugs currently available, half are aimed at HIV-1 and the remainder target only a further six viruses. This demand has led to the emergence of possible peptide therapies, with 15 currently in clinical trials. Advancements in understanding the antiviral potential of naturally occurring host defence peptides highlights the potential of a whole new class of molecules to be considered as antiviral therapeutics. Cationic host defence peptides, such as defensins and cathelicidins, are important components of innate immunity with antimicrobial and immunomodulatory capabilities. In recent years they have also been shown to be natural, broad-spectrum antivirals against both enveloped and non-enveloped viruses, including HIV-1, influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus and herpes simplex virus. Here we review the antiviral properties of several families of these host peptides and their potential to inform the design of novel therapeutics