Filling the Gaps: The Synergistic Application of Satellite Data for the Volcanic Ash Threat to Aviation

Although significant progress has been made in recent years, estimating volcanic ash concentration for the full extent of the airspace affected by volcanic ash remains a challenge. No single satellite, airborne or ground observing system currently exists which can sufficiently inform dispersion models to provide the degree of accuracy required to use them with a high degree of confidence for routing aircraft in and near volcanic ash. Toward this end, the detection and characterization of volcanic ash in the atmosphere may be substantially improved by integrating a wider array of observing systems and advancements in trajectory and dispersion modeling to help solve this problem. The qualitative aspect of this effort has advanced significantly in the past decade due to the increase of highly complementary observational and model data currently available. Satellite observations, especially when coupled with trajectory and dispersion models can provide a very accurate picture of the 3-dimensional location of ash clouds. The accurate estimate of the mass loading at various locations throughout the entire plume, however improving, remains elusive. This paper examines the capabilities of various satellite observation systems and postulates that model-based volcanic ash concentration maps and forecasts might be significantly improved if the various extant satellite capabilities are used together with independent, accurate mass loading data from other observing systems available to calibrate (tune) ash concentration retrievals from the satellite systems

Short-term variability in satellite-derived cloud cover and galactic cosmic rays: an update

Previous work by Todd and Kniveton (2001) (TK2001) has indicated a statistically significant association (at the daily timescale) between short-term reductions in galactic cosmic rays, specifically Forbush decrease (FD) events, and reduced cloud cover, mainly over Antarctica (as recorded in International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D1 data). This study presents an extension of the previous work using an extended dataset of FD events and ISCCP cloud data over the period 1983-2000, to establish how stable the observed cloud anomalies are. Composite analysis of ISCCP data based on a sample of 32 FD events (excluding those coincident with solar proton events) indicates cloud anomalies with a very similar space/time structure to that previously reported, although of smaller magnitude. Substantial reductions in high level cloud (up to 12% for zonal mean, compared to 18% reported by TK2001) are observed over the high geomagnetic latitudes, especially of the southern hemisphere immediately following FD event onset. Largest anomalies are centred on the Antarctic plateau region during austral winter. However, the largest cloud anomalies occur where the accuracy of the ISCCP cloud retrievals is likely to be lowest, such that the results must be treated with extreme caution. Moreover, significant positive composite mean surface and tropospheric temperature anomalies centred over the same region are also observed for the FD sample from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. Such increased temperatures are inconsistent with the radiative effect of a reduction in high-level cloud during local winter. Overall, the results do not provide strong evidence of a direct galactic cosmic ray/cloud association at short timescales. The results highlight (a) the potential problems of data quality in the high latitude regions (b) the problems inherent in inferring cause and effect relationships from observational data alone (c) the need for further research to test competing hypotheses

Using in-situ airborne measurements to evaluate three cloud phase products derived from CALIPSO

International audienceWe compare the cloud detection and cloud phase determination of three independent climatologies based on Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) to airborne in situ measurements. Our analysis of the cloud detection shows that the differences between the satellite and in situ measurements mainly arise from three factors. First, averaging CALIPSO Level l data along track before cloud detection increases the estimate of high-and low-level cloud fractions. Second, the vertical averaging of Level 1 data before cloud detection tends to artificially increase the cloud vertical extent. Third, the differences in classification of fully attenuated pixels among the CALIPSO climatologies lead to differences in the low-level Arctic cloud fractions. In another section, we compare the cloudy pixels detected by colocated in situ and satellite observations to study the cloud phase determination. At midlatitudes, retrievals of homogeneous high ice clouds by CALIPSO data sets are very robust (more than 94.6% of agreement with in situ). In the Arctic, where the cloud phase vertical variability is larger within a 480 m pixel, all climatologies show disagreements with the in situ measurements and CALIPSO-General Circulation Models-Oriented Cloud Product (GOCCP) report significant undefined-phase clouds, which likely correspond to mixed-phase clouds. In all CALIPSO products, the phase determination is dominated by the cloud top phase. Finally, we use global statistics to demonstrate that main differences between the CALIPSO cloud phase products stem from the cloud detection (horizontal averaging, fully attenuated pixels) rather than the cloud phase determination procedures

Multilayer Cloud Detection with the MODIS Near-Infrared Water Vapor Absorption Band

Data Collection 5 processing for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the NASA Earth Observing System EOS Terra and Aqua spacecraft includes an algorithm for detecting multilayered clouds in daytime. The main objective of this algorithm is to detect multilayered cloud scenes, specifically optically thin ice cloud overlying a lower-level water cloud, that presents difficulties for retrieving cloud effective radius using single layer plane-parallel cloud models. The algorithm uses the MODIS 0.94 micron water vapor band along with CO2 bands to obtain two above-cloud precipitable water retrievals, the difference of which, in conjunction with additional tests, provides a map of where multilayered clouds might potentially exist. The presence of a multilayered cloud results in a large difference in retrievals of above-cloud properties between the CO2 and the 0.94 micron methods. In this paper the MODIS multilayered cloud algorithm is described, results of using the algorithm over example scenes are shown, and global statistics for multilayered clouds as observed by MODIS are discussed. A theoretical study of the algorithm behavior for simulated multilayered clouds is also given. Results are compared to two other comparable passive imager methods. A set of standard cloudy atmospheric profiles developed during the course of this investigation is also presented. The results lead to the conclusion that the MODIS multilayer cloud detection algorithm has some skill in identifying multilayered clouds with different thermodynamic phase

Toward an Integrated Solution to Mitigate the Impact of Volcanic Ash to Aviation

The science community is making a concerted effort to improve the reliability of dispersion models for the forecasting of volcanic ash plumes. Toward this end, it has been observed that the assimilation of diverse, accurate and frequent surface, airborne and satellite observations of the source and distal ash plumes may hold the key. Various international research organizations and operational agencies make these observations using a variety of active and passive remote sensing systems and use them to initialize atmospheric trajectory and dispersion models. These observation systems range from surface LIDAR and ceilometers, to airborne radiometers and nephelometers, to satellite radiometers, multi-spectral imagers, LIDAR and UV-photometers. None of these systems alone is a panacea, however, their synergistic application holds great promise toward solving this complex problem. Additionally, the aeronautical and science communities are working to better understand the quantitative thresholds and tolerances of aviation systems to volcanic ash to better inform scientists of the accuracy requirements for dispersion model forecasts. A number of the most recent and promising efforts in all of these area are discussed in this presentation

CALIPSO observations of wave-induced PSCs with near-unity optical depth over Antarctica in 2006-2007

International audienceGround-based and satellite observations have hinted at the existence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) with relatively high optical depths, even if optical depth values are hard to come by. This study documents a type II PSC observed from spaceborne lidar, with visible optical depths up to 0.8. Comparisons with multiple temperature fields, including reanalyses and results from mesoscale simulations, suggest that intense small-scale temperature fluctuations due to gravity waves play an important role in its formation, while nearby observations show the presence of a potentially related type Ia PSC farther downstream inside the polar vortex. Following this first case, the geographic distribution and microphysical properties of PSCs with optical depths above 0.3 are explored over Antarctica during the 2006 and 2007 austral winters. These clouds are rare (less than 1% of profiles) and concentrated over areas where strong winds hit steep ground slopes in the Western Hemisphere, especially over the peninsula. Such PSCs are colder than the general PSC population, and their detection is correlated with daily temperature minima across Antarctica. Lidar and depolarization ratios within these clouds suggest they are most likely ice-based (type II). Similarities between the case study and other PSCs suggest they might share the same formation mechanisms