Understanding drivers of species distribution change: a trait-based approach

The impacts of anthropogenic environmental change on biodiversity are well documented, with threats such as habitat loss and climate change identified as causes of change in species distributions. The high degree of variation in responses of species to environmental change can be partly explained through comparative analyses of species traits. I carried out a phylogenetically informed trait-based analysis of plant range change in Britain, discovering that traits associated with competitive ability and habitat specialism both explained variation in range changes. Competitive, habitat generalists out-perform ed species specialised to nutrient-poor conditions; a result which can be attributed to the impact of agricultural intensification in Britain. A limitation of the comparative approach is that the models do not directly test the impact of environmental change on species distribution patterns, but instead infer potential impacts. I tested the potential of comparative analyses from a spatial context by conducting a spatial analysis of plant distribution change in Britain, examining the direct impact of environmental change on the spatial distribution of the trait characteristics of species that have gone locally extinct. I discovered a loss of species associated with nitrogen poor soils in regions that had an increase in arable land cover, a result that supports the results from the trait-based analysis of plant range change and demonstrates that comparative studies can accurately infer drivers of distribution change. I found that the cross-region transferability of trait-based models of range change to be related to land cover similarity, highlighting that the trait-based approach is dependent on a regional context. Additionally, I discovered that traits derived from distribution data were significant predictors of range shift across many taxonomic groups, out-performing traditional life history traits. This thesis highlights the potential of the data accumulated through the increased public participation in biological recording to address previously unanswerable ecological research questions.Open Acces

Considerations When Sampling Spruce Budworm Egg Masses on Balsam Fir in the Lake States: Low to Extreme Population Levels

Nineteen balsam fir trees, Abies balsamea, from five spruce-fir stands in Michigan\u27s Upper Peninsula, were used to study egg mass densities and distributions. Ten were used to study the effects of branch size on mass density estimates. The foliage surface area and the number of new egg masses spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, were determined for each branch, and the top of each tree and (or) the branch segment of interest. We determined the effects of the bias and the variance of the estimator, of sampling different parts of the tree, and of sampling different size branches. Points that should be considered when estimating spruce budworm egg mass densities on balsam fir were identified. Generally, sampling whole branches from the mid-crown gave the most precise and accurate estimates of tree egg mass density

Spruce Budworm Egg Mass Density on Balsam Fir: Low to Extreme Population Levels (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)

A study was initiated in Michigan\u27s Upper Peninsula to develop improved foliage sampling methods for spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens), egg masses. Four balsam fir, Abies balsamea, trees were chosen from each of four stands in 1979, and four balsam fir trees were chosen from one stand in 1980. The number of new egg masses, foliage surface area, and crown and quadrant classes of each branch were determined for all trees. Egg mass density for each part of the tree was determined by dividing total number of egg masses by total surfaee area. The 20 trees were divided into five groups with forecasted budworm damage varying from low to extreme. On the average the egg mass density (egg mass/lOOO cm2) of the lower-crown was 58% lower than the egg mass density of the entire tree; the mid-crown had 18% higher cgg mass density than the entire tree, the upper-crown had 63% higher density than the entire tree, and the tree top had 69% higher density than the entire tree. There was no strong trend to the small absolute differences in density among the four quadrants. Sampling at mid-crown may lead to over- or underestimation of tree egg mass density. The seriousness of such errors would depend on the bias and where the sample is taken vertically in the mid-crown

Spruce Budworm Egg Mass Density on Balsam Fir and White Spruce: Low Population Levels (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)

As part of a study to develop improved foliage sampling methods for spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens), egg masses, two balsam fir (four in one stand), Abies balsamea, and two white spruce, Picea glauca, trees were chosen from each of five spruce- fir stands in Michigan\u27s Upper Peninsula in 1980. All stands had very low to low population densities. Each tree was completely enumerated so that the number of new egg masses, foliage surface area, and egg mass density could be determined for the entire tree, three crown classes, four quadrants, and the tree top. Results indicated (1) considerable tree-to- tree and stand-to-stand variation; (2) no meaningful or consistent differences among quad- rants within or between species; (3) the average density in white spruce trees was 3.2 times larger than that in balsam fir trees; (4) the tree-la-tree variation of density in white spruce trees was 8.4 times larger than that in balsam fir trees; (5) densities in the mid-crown, upper-crown, and tree top are considerably higher than that in the lower-crown for both species; the relative differences for balsam fir are about twice that of white spruce; and (6) on the average, density at mid-crown was close to that of the entire tree for balsam fir, but density at mid-crown was 17.9% lower than that of the entire tree for white spruce. These results have important implications to the development of sampling plans for estimating egg mass density in spruce-fir stands

Regression Equations and Table for Estimating Numbers of Eggs in Jack Pine Budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Egg Masses in Michigan

Three simple linear regression equations were developed to estimate the numbers of eggs in jack pine budworm, Choristoneura pinus pinus, egg masses in Michigan. One equation was developed for each of 2-row, 2-row +, and 3-row egg masses. A table of estimated numbers of eggs per egg mass is given for each of the three row types for egg mass lengths from 1 to 25 nun

Considerations When Sampling Spruce Budworm Egg Masses on Balsam Fir and White Spruce in the Lake States: Low Population Levels

One cluster each of balsam fir, Abies balsamea, and white spruce, Picea glauca, trees was chosen from each of five stands of spruce-fir in Michigan\u27s Upper Peninsula. The foliage surface area and the number of new egg masses of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, were determined for each branch and the top of each tree. The effects, in terms of the bias and the variance of the estimator, of sampling in different parts of the tree and with various size branches were determined. Factors that the sampler should consider in developing sampling plans to estimate spruce bud worm egg mass densities in mixed spruce-fir stands were identified. Egg mass density and its per branch variance may be considerably higher in white spruce than in balsam fir. Sampling whole feasible branches at mid-crown yielded, in general, the most precise and accurate estimates of tree egg mass density

Changes to soil quality indicators following conversion to organic vegetable production (OF0401)

This is the final report of Defra project OF0401. The attached report document starts with an Executive Summary, from which this text is extracted. The aim of this 1 year study was to examine how key functional indicators of soil quality are affected by contrasting organic and conventional management regimes. In particular, the project investigated the impact of contrasting fertility building regimes on soil quality, focussing on the initial 5-year period following conversion from conventional to organic production. Five 0.8 ha areas at HRI-Wellesbourne were selected for study. These were: two organic vegetable rotations supporting contrasting fertility building regimes, an organic arable rotation, a grass-clover ley, and a conventionally managed cereal rotation. The organic areas had been converted from conventional cereal production 5 years prior to the start of the study. The conventional area was adjacent. A range of chemical, biological and physical attributes were determined. There were differences between the organic and conventional management regimes in most chemical, biological and physical soil quality parameters. Contrasting organic management regimes had different effects on soil quality. Relative to organic vegetable and conventional arable management, the organic arable management rotation enhanced amounts of light fraction organic matter and labile N, with beneficial implications for long term nutrient retention and soil organic matter development. There was little difference in chemical quality between the organic vegetable and the conventional arable areas. There was evidence that organic management promoted a microbial community that was distinct in composition and functional attributes to that in conventional soil. Relative to conventional management, areas under organic management had greatly increased inoculum of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, a larger proportion of 'active' relative to 'resting' biomass within the microbiota, increased metabolic diversity and a distinct microbial community metabolism. However, there was evidence that the productivity of newly converted organic systems could be limited by low inoculum and diversity of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi inherited following conventional management. The clearest effect on soil structure was with regard to the detrimental effects of vegetable production rather than to any benefit associated with organic management. Wheeling lines caused compaction that resulted in poor growth of subsequent cereal crops. However, it is likely that increased levels of organic matter may result in a soil better able to cope with damaging operations. There were differences in the susceptibility of the chemical and biological quality parameters to change. These differences provide possibilities to use selected parameters as early indicators of the effects of management on soil quality. Furthermore, the results highlight the need, when investigating soil quality, to consider a wide variety of 'quality' analyses. Limited data sets, focussing on traditional measures of soil quality (e.g. total SOM and biomass-N), could lead to unsound conclusions regarding the effects of management on other functional aspects of soil quality. There are opportunities to conduct further statistical analysis of our comprehensive data set in order to develop an index suitable for quantifying soil quality in organic systems. Such an index would be of generic value to rate soil quality in diverse agricultural systems. Further work is needed to determine the applicability and conclusions of our study to other soil types and organic management regimes. The work has highlighted fundamental shifts in microbial community structure and functioning following conversion from conventional to organic management. There is a need to characterise and quantify these changes. This will provide new groups of 'indicator' organisms which could be suitable for assessing changes to soil quality, and could also provide opportunities to manage soil microbial communities to improve the sustainability of organic and conventional farming