The use of prognostic scores for causal inference with general treatment regimes

In nonrandomised studies, inferring causal effects requires appropriate methods for addressing confounding bias. Although it is common to adopt propensity score analysis to this purpose, prognostic score analysis has recently been proposed as an alternative strategy. While both approaches were originally introduced to estimate causal effects for binary interventions, the theory of propensity score has since been extended to the case of general treatment regimes. Indeed, many treatments are not assigned in a binary fashion and require a certain extent of dosing. Hence, researchers may often be interested in estimating treatment effects across multiple exposures. To the best of our knowledge, the prognostic score analysis has not been yet generalised to this case. In this article, we describe the theory of prognostic scores for causal inference with general treatment regimes. Our methods can be applied to compare multiple treatments using nonrandomised data, a topic of great relevance in contemporary evaluations of clinical interventions. We propose estimators for the average treatment effects in different populations of interest, the validity of which is assessed through a series of simulations. Finally, we present an illustrative case in which we estimate the effect of the delay to Aspirin administration on a composite outcome of death or dependence at 6 months in stroke patients

The Wikipedia Gender Gap Revisited: Characterizing Survey Response Bias with Propensity Score Estimation

Opt-in surveys are the most widespread method used to study participation in online communities, but produce biased results in the absence of adjustments for non-response. A 2008 survey conducted by the Wikimedia Foundation and United Nations University at Maastricht is the source of a frequently cited statistic that less than 13% of Wikipedia contributors are female. However, the same study suggested that only 39.9% of Wikipedia readers in the US were female – a finding contradicted by a representative survey of American adults by the Pew Research Center conducted less than two months later. Combining these two datasets through an application and extension of a propensity score estimation technique used to model survey non-response bias, we construct revised estimates, contingent on explicit assumptions, for several of the Wikimedia Foundation and United Nations University at Maastricht claims about Wikipedia editors. We estimate that the proportion of female US adult editors was 27.5% higher than the original study reported (22.7%, versus 17.8%), and that the total proportion of female editors was 26.8% higher (16.1%, versus 12.7%).Sloan School of ManagementHarvard University. Berkman Center for Internet & SocietyFord Visionary Leadership FundNorthwestern University (Evanston, Ill.

The impact of adoption of conservation agriculture on smallholder farmers’ food security in semi-arid zones of southern Africa

BACKGROUND In southern Africa, conservation agriculture (CA) has received a lot of research and promotional support from various organizations in the past decades. Conservation agriculture is largely promoted as one of the few win–win technologies affordable to farmers, in the sense that potentially it improves farmers’ yields (in the long term) at the same time conserving the environment. This is because conservation agriculture reduces nitrogen loss in the soil, promotes water and soil conservation and improves agronomic use efficiency of applied nutrients. However, some concerns have been raised over the feasibility of conservation agriculture on smallholder farms given constraints imposed by the biophysical and institutional realities under which smallholder farmers operate. The main aim of this study is to answer the question whether conservation agriculture is resulting in tangible livelihood outcomes to smallholder farmers. The counterfactual outcome approach was used to estimate ex post impact of conservation agriculture adoption on one of the key livelihood outcomes—food security. RESULTS The study that utilized a data set covering 1623 households in Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique found no significant impact of conservation agriculture adoption on Food Consumption Score of farmers in Zimbabwe and Malawi. Possible reasons for the insignificant of CA impact on food security in Zimbabwe and Malawi could include the small land areas currently devoted to CA, and the failure to implement the full complement of practices necessary to set off the biophysical process that are expected to drive yield increases. In Mozambique, conservation agriculture significantly improved the Food Consumption Score for farmers exposed to the technology. A possible reason for effectiveness of CA in Mozambique could be due to the fact that often CA is being promoted together with other better cropping management practices such as timely weeding and improved seed varieties, which are poorly practiced by the generality of farmers in a country just emerging from a war period. CONCLUSION This paper provides one of the few ex post assessments of the impact of conservation agriculture adoption on household livelihood outcomes—food security. Given the mixed findings, the study suggests that conservation agriculture farmers in the three countries need to be supported to adopt a value chain approach to conservation agriculture. This entails the introduction of commercial or high-value crops in the conservation agriculture programmes, value addition on farmers produce, access to the necessary support services such as markets for seed, fertilizer, herbicides and equipment as well as reliable extension. We believe that under such circumstances conservation agriculture can effectively reduce food insecurity and poverty in the medium to long term

The role of protected areas in the avoidance of anthropogenic conversion in a high pressure region : a matching method analysis in the core region of the brazilian cerrado

Global efforts to avoid anthropogenic conversion of natural habitat rely heavily on the establishment of protected areas. Studies that evaluate the effectiveness of these areas with a focus on preserving the natural habitat define effectiveness as a measure of the influence of protected areas on total avoided conversion. Changes in the estimated effectiveness are related to local and regional differences, evaluation methods, restriction categories that include the protected areas, and other characteristics. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas to prevent the advance of the conversion of natural areas in the core region of the Brazil’s Cerrado Biome, taking into account the influence of the restriction degree, governmental sphere, time since the establishment of the protected area units, and the size of the area on the performance of protected areas. The evaluation was conducted using matching methods and took into account the following two fundamental issues: control of statistical biases caused by the influence of covariates on the likelihood of anthropogenic conversion and the non-randomness of the allocation of protected areas throughout the territory (spatial correlation effect) and the control of statistical bias caused by the influence of auto-correlation and leakage effect. Using a sample design that is not based on ways to control these biases may result in outcomes that underestimate or overestimate the effectiveness of those units. The matching method accounted for a bias reduction in 94–99% of the estimation of the average effect of protected areas on anthropogenic conversion and allowed us to obtain results with a reduced influence of the auto-correlation and leakage effects. Most protected areas had a positive influence on the maintenance of natural habitats, although wide variation in this effectiveness was dependent on the type, restriction, governmental sphere, size and age group of the unit

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Higher occurrence of nausea and vomiting after total hip arthroplasty using general versus spinal anesthesia: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Under the assumption that postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) may occur after total hip arthroplasty (THA) regardless of the anesthetic technique used, it is not clear whether general (GA) or spinal (SA) anesthesia has higher causal effect on this occurrence. Conflicting results have been reported. METHODS: In this observational study, we selected all elective THA interventions performed in adults between 1999 and 2008 in a Swiss orthopedic clinic under general or spinal anesthesia. To assess the effect of anesthesia type on the occurrence of PONV, we used the propensity score and matching methods, which allowed us to emulate the design and results of an RCT. RESULTS: Among 3922 procedures, 1984 (51 %) patients underwent GA, of which 4.1 % experienced PONV, and 1938 underwent SA, of which 3.5 % experienced PONV. We found that the average treatment effect on the treated, i.e. the effect of anesthesia type for a sample of individuals that actually received spinal anesthesia compared to individuals who received GA, was ATET = 2.00 % [95 % CI, 0.78-3.19 %], which translated into an OR = 1.97 [95 % CI 1.35; 2.87]. CONCLUSION: This suggests that the type of anesthesia is not neutral regarding PONV, general anesthesia being more strongly associated with PONV than spinal anesthesia in orthopedic surgery

A comparison of methods to adjust for continuous covariates in the analysis of randomised trials

BACKGROUND: Although covariate adjustment in the analysis of randomised trials can be beneficial, adjustment for continuous covariates is complicated by the fact that the association between covariate and outcome must be specified. Misspecification of this association can lead to reduced power, and potentially incorrect conclusions regarding treatment efficacy. METHODS: We compared several methods of adjustment to determine which is best when the association between covariate and outcome is unknown. We assessed (a) dichotomisation or categorisation; (b) assuming a linear association with outcome; (c) using fractional polynomials with one (FP1) or two (FP2) polynomial terms; and (d) using restricted cubic splines with 3 or 5 knots. We evaluated each method using simulation and through a re-analysis of trial datasets. RESULTS: Methods which kept covariates as continuous typically had higher power than methods which used categorisation. Dichotomisation, categorisation, and assuming a linear association all led to large reductions in power when the true association was non-linear. FP2 models and restricted cubic splines with 3 or 5 knots performed best overall. CONCLUSIONS: For the analysis of randomised trials we recommend (1) adjusting for continuous covariates even if their association with outcome is unknown; (2) keeping covariates as continuous; and (3) using fractional polynomials with two polynomial terms or restricted cubic splines with 3 to 5 knots when a linear association is in doubt

Patterns of sick-leave and health outcomes in injured workers with back pain

Little is known about the sick-leave experiences of workers who make a workers’ compensation claim for back pain. Our objective is to describe the 1-year patterns of sick-leave and the health outcomes of a cohort of workers who make a workers’ compensation claim for back pain. We studied a cohort of 1,831 workers from five large US firms who made incident workers’ compensation claims for back pain between January 1, 1999 and June 30, 2002. Injured workers were interviewed 1 month (n = 1,321), 6 months (n = 810) and 1 year (n = 462) following the onset of their pain. We described the course of back pain using four patterns of sick-leave: (1) no sick-leave, (2) returned to worked and stayed, (3) multiple episodes of sick-leave and (4) not yet returned to work. We described the health outcomes as back and/or leg pain intensity, functional limitations and health-related quality of life. We analyzed data from participants who completed all follow-up interviews (n = 457) to compute the probabilities of transition between patterns of sick-leave. A significant proportion of workers experienced multiple episodes of sick-leave (30.2%; 95% CI 25.0–35.1) during the 1-year follow-up. The proportion of workers who did not report sick-leave declined from 42.4% (95% CI 39.0–46.1) at 1 month to 33.6% (28.0–38.7) at 1 year. One year after the injury, 2.9% (1.6–4.9) of workers had not yet returned to work. Workers who did not report sick-leave and those who returned and stayed at work reported better health outcomes than workers who experienced multiple episodes of sick-leave or workers who had not returned to work. Almost a third of workers with an incident episode of back pain experience recurrent spells of work absenteeism during the following year. Our data suggest that stable patterns of sick-leave are associated with better health

Impact of intravenous fluid composition on outcomes in patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome

Introduction: Intravenous (IV) fluids may be associated with complications not often attributed to fluid type. Fluids with high chloride concentrations such as 0.9 % saline have been associated with adverse outcomes in surgery and critical care. Understanding the association between fluid type and outcomes in general hospitalized patients may inform selection of fluid type in clinical practice. We sought to determine if the type of IV fluid administered to patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is associated with outcome. Methods: This was a propensity-matched cohort study in hospitalized patients receiving at least 500 mL IV crystalloid within 48 hours of SIRS. Patient data was extracted from a large multi-hospital electronic health record database between January 1, 2009, and March 31, 2013. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included length of stay, readmission, and complications measured by ICD-9 coding and clinical definitions. Outcomes were adjusted for illness severity using the Acute Physiology Score. Of the 91,069 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 89,363 (98 %) received 0.9 % saline whereas 1706 (2 %) received a calcium-free balanced solution as the primary fluid. Results: There were 3116 well-matched patients, 1558 in each cohort. In comparison with the calcium-free balanced cohort, the saline cohort experienced greater in-hospital mortality (3.27 % vs. 1.03 %, P <0.001), length of stay (4.87 vs. 4.38 days, P = 0.016), frequency of readmission at 60 (13.54 vs. 10.91, P = 0.025) and 90 days (16.56 vs. 12.58, P = 0.002) and frequency of cardiac, infectious, and coagulopathy complications (all P <0.002). Outcomes were defined by administrative coding and clinically were internally consistent. Patients in the saline cohort received more chloride and had electrolyte abnormalities requiring replacement more frequently (P <0.001). No differences were found in acute renal failure. Conclusions: In this large electronic health record, the predominant use of 0.9 % saline in patients with SIRS was associated with significantly greater morbidity and mortality compared with predominant use of balanced fluids. The signal is consistent with that reported previously in perioperative and critical care patients. Given the large population of hospitalized patients receiving IV fluids, these differences may confer treatment implications and warrant corroboration via large clinical trials. Trial registration: NCT02083198 clinicaltrials.gov; March 5, 201