Transformative policy mixes in socio-technical scenarios: the case of the low-carbon transition of the German electricity system (2010-2050)

Much research and policy advice for addressing climate change has focused on developing model-based scenarios to identify pathways towards achieving decarbonisation targets. The paper's first aim is to complement such model-based analysis with insights from socio-technical transition analysis to develop socio-technical storylines that show how low-carbon transitions can be implemented. Our second aim is to explore how policymakers could govern such transition processes through transformative policy mixes. We take the example of the transition of the German electricity system towards renewable energies, and elaborate two transition pathways which are assumed to achieve an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but differ in terms of lead actors, depth and scope of change: the first pathway captures the substitution of technological components (pathway A), while the second aims at broader system transformation (pathway B). We find that multi-dimensional socio-technical change (pathway B) requires greater emphasis on societal experimentation and a more proactive role for anticipatory deliberation processes from the outset. In contrast, shifting gear from a new entrant friendly past trajectory to an incumbent dominated pathway (pathway A) requires agency from incumbents and is associated with regime stabilizing instruments defending the old regime while simultaneously fulfilling decarbonisation as additional success criteria

Public opinion and environmental policy output: a cross-national analysis of energy policies in Europe

This article studies how public opinion is associated with the introduction of renewable energy policies in Europe. While research increasingly seeks to model the link between public opinion and environmental policies, the empirical evidence is largely based on a single case: the US. This limits the generalizability of findings and we argue accordingly for a systematic, quantitative study of how public opinion drives environmental policies in another context. Theoretically, we combine arguments behind the political survival of democratic leaders with electoral success and environmental politics. Ultimately, we suggest that office-seeking leaders introduce policies that seem favorable to the domestic audience; if the public prefers environmental protection, the government introduces such policies in turn. The main contribution of this research is the cross-country empirical analysis, where we combine data on the public's environmental attitudes and renewable energy policy outputs in a European context between 1974 and 2015. We show that as public opinion shifts towards prioritizing the environment, there is a significant and positive effect on the rate of renewable energy policy outputs by governments in Europe. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic, quantitative study of public opinion and environmental policies across a large set of countries, and we demonstrate that the mechanisms behind the introduction of renewable energy policies follow major trends across European states

Policy mixes for sustainability transitions: an extended concept and framework for analysis

Reaching a better understanding of the policies and politics of transitions presents a main agenda item in the emerging field of sustainability transitions. One important requirement for these transitions, such as the move towards a decarbonized energy system, is the redirection and acceleration of technological change, for which policies play a key role. In this regard, several studies have argued for the need to combine different policy instruments in so-called policy mixes. However, existing policy mix studies often fall short of reflecting the complexity and dynamics of actual policy mixes, the underlying politics and the evaluation of their impacts. In this paper we take a first step towards an extended, interdisciplinary policy mix concept based on a review of the bodies of literature on innovation studies, environmental economics and policy analysis. The concept introduces a clear terminology and consists of the three building blocks elements, policy processes and characteristics, which can be delineated by several dimensions. Based on this, we discuss its application as analytical framework for empirical studies analyzing the impact of the policy mix on technological change. Throughout the paper we illustrate the proposed concept by using the example of the policy mix for fostering the transition of the German energy system to renewable power generation technologies. Finally, we derive policy implications and suggest avenues for future research

Developing policies for the end-of-life of energy infrastructure: Coming to terms with the challenges of decommissioning

Energy sector policies have focused historically on the planning, design and construction of energy infrastructures, while typically overlooking the processes required for the management of their end-of-life, and particularly their decommissioning. However, decommissioning of existing and future energy infrastructures is constrained by a plethora of technical, economic, social and environmental challenges that must be understood and addressed if such infrastructures are to make a net-positive contribution over their whole life. Here, we introduce the magnitude and variety of these challenges to raise awareness and stimulate debate on the development of reasonable policies for current and future decommissioning projects. Focusing on power plants, the paper provides the foundations for the interdisciplinary thinking required to deliver an integrated decommissioning policy that incorporates circular economy principles to maximise value throughout the lifecycle of energy infrastructures. We conclude by suggesting new research paths that will promote more sustainable management of energy infrastructures at the end of their life

Exploring the role of instrument design and instrument interaction for eco-innovation: a survey-based analysis of renewable energy innovation in Germany

Empirical research on eco-innovation has produced a substantive body of literature on the relevance of regulation for stimulating such innovation. Much of this work on the role of policy for eco-innovation relies on econometric analyses of company survey data. In this regard, the eco-innovation module introduced in 2008/9 in the Community Innova-tion Survey serves as an important data source that has helped improve our under-standing of the role of environmental and innovation policy for eco-innovation in the Eu-ropean Union (EU). However, so far, this data source has provided only limited oppor-tunities to generate insights into the role of instrument design and instrument interaction for eco-innovation. In this chapter, we present a first attempt to measure such aspects in a company innovation survey based on the example of renewable energy innovation in Germany. In particular, we explore to what extent the design of the German Renewa-ble Energy Sources Act (and the interaction of its feed-in tariffs with the EU emissions trading system) correlates with innovation in renewable power generation technologies. We find instrument design features but not instrument type to be related to eco-innovation. In addition, our exploratory study provides evidence for an interaction effect between climate policy and renewables support policy. Based on these findings, we discuss implications for future research on the role of policy in eco-innovation

The role of hydrogen and fuel cells in the global energy system

Hydrogen technologies have experienced cycles of excessive expectations followed by disillusion. Nonetheless, a growing body of evidence suggests these technologies form an attractive option for the deep decarb onisation of global energy systems, and that recent improvements in their cost and performance point towards economic viability as well. This paper is a comprehensive review of the potential role that hydrogen could play in the provision of electricity, h eat, industry, transport and energy storage in a low - carbon energy system, and an assessment of the status of hydrogen in being able to fulfil that potential. The picture that emerges is one of qualified promise: hydrogen is well established in certain nic hes such as forklift trucks, while mainstream applications are now forthcoming. Hydrogen vehicles are available commercially in several countries, and 225,000 fuel cell home heating systems have been sold. This represents a step change from the situation of only five years ago. This review shows that challenges around cost and performance remain, and considerable improvements are still required for hydrogen to become truly competitive. But such competitiveness in the medium - term future no longer seems an unrealistic prospect, which fully justifies the growing interest and policy support for these technologies around the world