The reaction of exchange rates and interest rates of news releases

Leading indicators are typical constructs used in macroeconomics to guide decision making in several areas of economic activity, including policy formation and long term investment. Researchers often evaluate and select leading indicators on a seemingly ad hoc basis involving OLS regression, which does not take into account the fact that perhaps the most important property of a good leading indicator lies in its ability to anticipate the turning points of the time series of interest. We propose an alternative assessment of leading indicators, based on the turning point significance transform, which weights each observation of the original time series according to how much it functions as a turning point. This new construct is then used to evaluate the accuracy and timeliness of several German and American macroeconomic time series as leading indicators for GDP growth. --leading indicator,turning point,prediction

Survey Methodology: International Developments

Falling response rates and the advancement of technology have shaped the discussion in survey methodology in the last few years. Both led to a notable change in data collection efforts. Survey organizations try to create adaptive recruitment and survey designs and increased the collection of non-survey data for sampled cases. While the first strategy is an attempt to increase response rates and to save cost, the latter is part of efforts to reduce possible bias and response burden of those interviewed. To successfully implement adaptive designs and alternative data collection efforts researchers need to understand error properties of mixedmode and multiple-frame surveys. Randomized experiments might be needed to gain that knowledge. In addition close collaboration between survey organizations and researchers is needed, including the possibility and willingness to shared data between those organizations. Expanding options for graduate and post-graduate education in survey methodology might help to increase the possibility for high quality surveys.Survey Methodology, Responsive Design, Paradata

Approximation properties of the neuro-fuzzy minimum function

The integration of fuzzy logic systems and neural networks in data driven nonlinear modeling applications has generally been limited to functions based upon the multiplicative fuzzy implication rule for theoretical and computational reasons. We derive a universal approximation result for the minimum fuzzy implication rule as well as a differentiable substitute function that allows fast optimization and function approximation with neuro-fuzzy networks. --Fuzzy Logic,Neural Networks,Nonlinear Modeling,Optimization

An American Dissenter: The Life of Algie Martin Simons 1870–1950

In this biography of Algie Martin Simons, a major figure in the Socialist party of America, Kent and Gretchen Kreuter show the widely ranging social activities that brought Simons into touch with many of the movements and personalities of his time. As a propagandist and historian, Simons wrote the first thoroughgoing Marxist account of American history. As a journalist, he furnished Upton Sinclair with much of the material that he used in The Jungle, and as a party politician, Simons was a significant force in unifying the party, in establishing the International Workers of the World (IWW), and in trying to make socialism an acceptable alternative for the American voter. Although he broke with the party in 1917, Simons, as a teacher and a writer on industrial relations, continually struggled with the major problems that faced industrial society in the twentieth century. Kent Kreuter is Associate Professor of History at Hamline University and Gretchen Kreuter is Assistant Professor of History at the College of St. Catherine.https://uknowledge.uky.edu/upk_political_history/1016/thumbnail.jp

Paradata

Paradata – data about the process of survey production – have drawn increasing attention as the statistical world moves towards the implementation of quality metrics and measures to improve quality and save costs. This paper gives examples of various uses of paradata and discusses access to paradata as well as future developments.paradata, process data, responsive design, measurement error, nonresponse, adjustment

Supplementing factual information with patient narratives in the cancer screening context: a qualitative study of acceptability and preferences

Objective To explore people's responses to narrative information in the context of colorectal cancer screening. Design nineteen in-depth interviews were conducted with men and women (aged 45–59). Participants were given two types of colorectal screening information to read: factual and narrative. Participants gave their views on both types of information. Data were analysed using Framework Analysis. Results The most frequent responses to the narrative information were that they were reassuring, made colorectal screening more vivid, participants could relate to the people in the stories and they liked the range of narratives presented. Despite the narrative information being seen as more persuasive by some, this was not regarded as manipulative or negative. Both types of information were seen as equally credible. Participants felt a combination of facts and narratives would be useful when considering an offer of colorectal cancer screening. Conclusion Overall, participants were positive about the addition of narrative information to the currently provided factual information about colorectal cancer screening. Supplementing existing factual information with narrative information may provide participants with a more complete understanding of participation in colorectal cancer screening when considering an offer to be screened