Probabilistic solar wind and geomagnetic forecasting using an analogue ensemble or "Similar Day" approach

Effective space-weather prediction and mitigation requires accurate forecasting of near-Earth solar-wind conditions. Numerical magnetohydrodynamic models of the solar wind, driven by remote solar observations, are gaining skill at forecasting the large-scale solar-wind features that give rise to near-Earth variations over days and weeks. There remains a need for accurate short-term (hours to days) solar-wind forecasts, however. In this study we investigate the analogue ensemble (AnEn), or “similar day”, approach that was developed for atmospheric weather forecasting. The central premise of the AnEn is that past variations that are analogous or similar to current conditions can be used to provide a good estimate of future variations. By considering an ensemble of past analogues, the AnEn forecast is inherently probabilistic and provides a measure of the forecast uncertainty. We show that forecasts of solar-wind speed can be improved by considering both speed and density when determining past analogues, whereas forecasts of the out-of-ecliptic magnetic field [ BNBN ] are improved by also considering the in-ecliptic magnetic-field components. In general, the best forecasts are found by considering only the previous 6 – 12 hours of observations. Using these parameters, the AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast for solar-wind speed, density, and in-ecliptic magnetic field over lead times from a few hours to around four days. For BNBN , which is central to space-weather disturbance, the AnEn only provides a valuable forecast out to around six to seven hours. As the inherent predictability of this parameter is low, this is still likely a marked improvement over other forecast methods. We also investigate the use of the AnEn in forecasting geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp. The AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast of both indices out to around four days. We outline a number of future improvements to AnEn forecasts of near-Earth solar-wind and geomagnetic conditions

Reconstructing the 3-D Trajectories of CMEs in the Inner Heliosphere

A method for the full three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction of the trajectories of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) data is presented. Four CMEs that were simultaneously observed by the inner and outer coronagraphs (COR1 and 2) of the Ahead and Behind STEREO satellites were analysed. These observations were used to derive CME trajectories in 3-D out to ~15Rsun. The reconstructions using COR1/2 data support a radial propagation model. Assuming pseudo-radial propagation at large distances from the Sun (15-240Rsun), the CME positions were extrapolated into the Heliospheric Imager (HI) field-of-view. We estimated the CME velocities in the different fields-of-view. It was found that CMEs slower than the solar wind were accelerated, while CMEs faster than the solar wind were decelerated, with both tending to the solar wind velocity.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 1 appendi

Photoproduction of D∗±D^{*\pm} mesons associated with a leading neutron

The photoproduction of $D^{*\pm} (2010)$ mesons associated with a leading neutron has been observed with the ZEUS detector in $ep$ collisions at HERA using an integrated luminosity of 80 pb$^{-1}$. The neutron carries a large fraction, {$x_L>0.2$}, of the incoming proton beam energy and is detected at very small production angles, {$\theta_n<0.8$ mrad}, an indication of peripheral scattering. The $D^*$ meson is centrally produced with pseudorapidity {$|\eta| 1.9$ GeV}, which is large compared to the average transverse momentum of the neutron of 0.22 GeV. The ratio of neutron-tagged to inclusive $D^*$ production is $8.85\pm 0.93({\rm stat.})^{+0.48}_{-0.61}({\rm syst.})\%$ in the photon-proton center-of-mass energy range {$130 <W<280$ GeV}. The data suggest that the presence of a hard scale enhances the fraction of events with a leading neutron in the final state.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

Formation of dense partonic matter in relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions at RHIC: Experimental evaluation by the PHENIX collaboration

Extensive experimental data from high-energy nucleus-nucleus collisions were recorded using the PHENIX detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The comprehensive set of measurements from the first three years of RHIC operation includes charged particle multiplicities, transverse energy, yield ratios and spectra of identified hadrons in a wide range of transverse momenta (p_T), elliptic flow, two-particle correlations, non-statistical fluctuations, and suppression of particle production at high p_T. The results are examined with an emphasis on implications for the formation of a new state of dense matter. We find that the state of matter created at RHIC cannot be described in terms of ordinary color neutral hadrons.Comment: 510 authors, 127 pages text, 56 figures, 1 tables, LaTeX. Submitted to Nuclear Physics A as a regular article; v3 has minor changes in response to referee comments. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Validation of high performance liquid chromatography method for determination of meloxicam loaded PEGylated nanocapsules

abstract A method to ensure that an analytical method will produce reliable and interpretable information about the sample must first be validated, making sure that the results can be trusted and traced. In this study, we propose to validate an analytical high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method for the quantitation of meloxicam loaded PEGylated nanocapsules(M-PEGNC). We performed a validation study, evaluated parameters including specificity, linearity, quantification limit, detection limit, accuracy, precision and robustness. PEGylated nanocapsules were prepared by interfacial deposition of preformed polymer, and the particle size, polydispersity index, zeta potential, pH value and encapsulation efficiency were characterized. The proposed HPLC method provides selective, linear results in the range of 1.0-40.0 μg/mL; quantification and detection limits were 1.78 μg/mL and 0.59 μg/mL, respectively; relative standard deviation for repeatability was 1.35% and intermediate precision was 0.41% and 0.61% for analyst 1 and analyst 2, respectively; accuracy between 99.23 and 101.79%; robustness between 97.13 and 98.45% for the quantification of M-PEGNC. Mean particle diameters were 261 ± 13 nm and 249 ± 20 nm, polydispersity index was 0.15 ± 0.07 and 0.17 ± 0.06, pH values were 5.0 ± 0.2 and 5.2 ± 0.1, and zeta-potential values were -37.9 ± 3.2 mV e -31.8 ± 2.8 mV for M-PEGNC and placebo(B-PEGNC), respectively. In conclusion, the proposed analytical method is suitable for the quality control of M-PEGNC. Moreover, suspensions showed monomodal size distributions and low polydispersity index indicating high homogeneity of formulations with narrow size distributions, and appropriate pH and zeta potential. The extraction process was efficient for release of meloxicam from nanostructured systems

The Physical Processes of CME/ICME Evolution

As observed in Thomson-scattered white light, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifest as large-scale expulsions of plasma magnetically driven from the corona in the most energetic eruptions from the Sun. It remains a tantalizing mystery as to how these erupting magnetic fields evolve to form the complex structures we observe in the solar wind at Earth. Here, we strive to provide a fresh perspective on the post-eruption and interplanetary evolution of CMEs, focusing on the physical processes that define the many complex interactions of the ejected plasma with its surroundings as it departs the corona and propagates through the heliosphere. We summarize the ways CMEs and their interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) are rotated, reconfigured, deformed, deflected, decelerated and disguised during their journey through the solar wind. This study then leads to consideration of how structures originating in coronal eruptions can be connected to their far removed interplanetary counterparts. Given that ICMEs are the drivers of most geomagnetic storms (and the sole driver of extreme storms), this work provides a guide to the processes that must be considered in making space weather forecasts from remote observations of the corona.Peer reviewe