Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war

We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders. Two parties play a Markov game that combines stages of bargaining with stages where one side has the ability to impose surrender on the other. Under uncertainty and incomplete information, in the unique equilibrium of the game, long confrontations occur: war arises when reality disappoints initial (rational) optimism, and it persist longer when both agents are optimists but reality proves both wrong. Bargaining proposals that are rejected initially might eventually be accepted after several periods of confrontation. We provide an explicit computation of the equilibrium, evaluating the probability of war, and its expected losses as a function of i) the costs of confrontation, ii) the asymmetry of the split imposed under surrender, and iii) the strengths of contenders at attack and defense. Changes in these parameters display non-monotonic effects

Opening practice: Supporting Reproducibility and Critical Spatial Data Science

This paper reflects on a number of trends towards a more open and reproducible approach to geographic and spatial data science over recent years. In particular, it considers trends towards Big Data, and the impacts this is having on spatial data analysis and modelling. It identifies a turn in academia towards coding as a core analytic tool, and away from proprietary software tools offering ‘black boxes’ where the internal workings of the analysis are not revealed. It is argued that this closed form software is problematic and considers a number of ways in which issues identified in spatial data analysis (such as the MAUP) could be overlooked when working with closed tools, leading to problems of interpretation and possibly inappropriate actions and policies based on these. In addition, this paper considers the role that reproducible and open spatial science may play in such an approach, taking into account the issues raised. It highlights the dangers of failing to account for the geographical properties of data, now that all data are spatial (they are collected somewhere), the problems of a desire for n = all observations in data science and it identifies the need for a critical approach. This is one in which openness, transparency, sharing and reproducibility provide a mantra for defensible and robust spatial data science

Pediatric T- and NK-cell lymphomas: new biologic insights and treatment strategies

T- and natural killer (NK)-cell lymphomas are challenging childhood neoplasms. These cancers have varying presentations, vast molecular heterogeneity, and several are quite unusual in the West, creating diagnostic challenges. Over 20 distinct T- and NK-cell neoplasms are recognized by the 2008 World Health Organization classification, demonstrating the diversity and potential complexity of these cases. In pediatric populations, selection of optimal therapy poses an additional quandary, as most of these malignancies have not been studied in large randomized clinical trials. Despite their rarity, exciting molecular discoveries are yielding insights into these clinicopathologic entities, improving the accuracy of our diagnoses of these cancers, and expanding our ability to effectively treat them, including the use of new targeted therapies. Here, we summarize this fascinating group of lymphomas, with particular attention to the three most common subtypes: T-lymphoblastic lymphoma, anaplastic large cell lymphoma, and peripheral T-cell lymphoma-not otherwise specified. We highlight recent findings regarding their molecular etiologies, new biologic markers, and cutting-edge therapeutic strategies applied to this intriguing class of neoplasms

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Measurement of the t¯tZ and t¯tW cross sections in proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the associated production of a top-quark pair (t¯t) with a vector boson (W, Z) in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is presented, using 36.1  fb−1 of integrated luminosity collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events are selected in channels with two same- or opposite-sign leptons (electrons or muons), three leptons or four leptons, and each channel is further divided into multiple regions to maximize the sensitivity of the measurement. The t¯tZ and t¯tW production cross sections are simultaneously measured using a combined fit to all regions. The best-fit values of the production cross sections are σt¯tZ=0.95±0.08stat±0.10syst pb and σt¯tW=0.87±0.13stat±0.14syst pb in agreement with the Standard Model predictions. The measurement of the t¯tZ cross section is used to set constraints on effective field theory operators which modify the t¯tZ vertex

Search for excited electrons singly produced in proton–proton collisions at \sqrt{s} = 13 TeV with the ALAS experiment at the LHC

A search for excited electrons produced in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV via a contact interaction qq¯→ee∗ is presented. The search uses 36.1 fb −1 of data collected in 2015 and 2016 by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Decays of the excited electron into an electron and a pair of quarks ( eqq¯ ) are targeted in final states with two electrons and two hadronic jets, and decays via a gauge interaction into a neutrino and a W boson ( νW ) are probed in final states with an electron, missing transverse momentum, and a large-radius jet consistent with a hadronically decaying W boson. No significant excess is observed over the expected backgrounds. Upper limits are calculated for the pp→ee∗→eeqq¯ and pp→ee∗→eνW production cross sections as a function of the excited electron mass me∗ at 95% confidence level. The limits are translated into lower bounds on the compositeness scale parameter Λ of the model as a function of me∗ . For me∗<0.5 TeV , the lower bound for Λ is 11 TeV . In the special case of me∗=Λ , the values of me∗<4.8 TeV are excluded. The presented limits on Λ are more stringent than those obtained in previous searches

Measurement of the inclusive isolated-photon cross section at √s = 13 TeV using fb⁻¹ of ATLAS data

The differential cross section for isolated-photon production in pp collisions is measured at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC using an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1. The differential cross section is presented as a function of the photon transverse energy in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The differential cross section as a function of the absolute value of the photon pseudorapidity is also presented in different regions of photon transverse energy. Next-to-leading-order QCD calculations from Jetphox and Sherpa as well as next-to-next-to-leading-order QCD calculations from Nnlojet are compared with the measurement, using several parameterisations of the proton parton distribution functions. The predictions provide a good description of the data within the experimental and theoretical uncertainties

Observation of electroweak production of two jets and a Z-boson pair

Electroweak symmetry breaking explains the origin of the masses of elementary particles through their interactions with the Higgs field. Besides the measurements of the Higgs boson properties, the study of the scattering of massive vector bosons with spin 1 allows the nature of electroweak symmetry breaking to be probed. Among all processes related to vector-boson scattering, the electroweak production of two jets and a Z-boson pair is a rare and important one. Here we report the observation of this process from proton–proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1 recorded at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. We consider two different final states originating from the decays of the Z-boson pair: one containing four charged leptons and another containing two charged leptons and two neutrinos. The hypothesis of no electroweak production is rejected with a statistical significance of 5.7σ, and the measured cross-section for electroweak production is consistent with the Standard Model prediction. In addition, we report cross-sections for inclusive production of a Z-boson pair and two jets for the two final states