Reliability analysis of 15MW horizontal axis wind turbine rotor blades using fluid-structure interaction simulation and adaptive kriging model

Over the course of the last four decades, the rotor diameter of Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWTs) has undergone a substantial increase, expanding from 15 m (30 kW) to an impressive 240 m (15MW), primarily aimed at enhancing their power generation capacity. This growth in blade swept area, however, gives rise to heightened loads, stresses and deflections, imposing more rigorous demands on the structural robustness of these components. To prevent sudden failure and to plan effective inspection, maintenance, and repair activities, it is vital to estimate the reliability of the rotor blades by considering all the forces (aerodynamic and structural dynamics) acting on them over the turbine’s lifespan. This research proposes a comprehensive methodology that seamlessly combines fluid-structure interaction (FSI) simulation, Kriging model/algorithm and Adaptive Kriging Monte Carlo Simulation (AKMCS) to assess the reliability of the HAWT rotor blades. Firstly, high-fidelity FSI simulations are performed to investigate the dynamic response of the rotor blade under varying wind conditions. Recognizing the computationally intensive nature and time-consuming aspects of FSI simulations, a judicious approach involves harnessing an economical Kriging model as a surrogate. This surrogate model adeptly predicts blade deflection along its length, utilizing training and testing data derived from FSI simulations. Impressively, the Kriging model predicts blade deflection 400 times faster than the FSI simulations, showcasing its enhanced efficiency. The optimized surrogate model is then used to estimate the flap wise blade tip deflection for one million wind speed samples generated using Weibull distribution. Thereafter, to evaluate the reliability of the blades, statistical modeling using methods such as Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), AKMCS is performed. The results demonstrate the faster convergence of AKMCS requiring only 21 samples, as opposed to 1 million samples for MCS with minimal reduction in the precision of the estimated probability of failure (Pf) and reliability index (β). Demonstrated on the backdrop of an IEA-15MW offshore reference WT rotor blade, the proposed methodology underscores its potential to be seamlessly incorporated into the creation of WT digital twins, due to its near real-time predictive capabilities for Pf and β assessments.Reliability analysis of 15MW horizontal axis wind turbine rotor blades using fluid-structure interaction simulation and adaptive kriging modelacceptedVersio

Antibiotic usage pattern among inpatients of a paediatric ward in a tertiary care hospital in Eastern India

Background: The inevitable consequence of the widespread use of antimicrobial agents has been the emergence of antibiotic resistant pathogens. The rising incidence of bacterial resistance to common antibiotics, particularly, multi-drug resistant pneumococci, has prompted the need to use antibiotics judiciously in paediatric practice. The present study thus attempted to understand the antibiotic usage pattern among inpatients in a paediatric ward of a tertiary care hospital.Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out for three months among the inpatients in the Department of Pediatrics in a tertiary care teaching hospital, Kolkata. The data regarding patient’s demographics and antibiotic use was collected daily in a pre-structured proforma. A descriptive statistical analysis of the data was performed.Results: A total of 124 patients were screened of which males and females represented 58.06% and 41.94% of the cases respectively with age group of 2-14 years presenting in majority. Among various causes of hospitalization, prevalence of respiratory disorders were maximum (25.81%), followed by hematological disorders (25%). Among various categories of prescribed drugs, antibiotics were found to be maximum (39.25%). Beta-lactum antibiotics were prescribed in majority (64.41%) with 56.91% being of cephalosporin group. The preferred route of administration was found to be parenteral (64%). 61.29 % cases were ordered laboratory investigations prior to the antimicrobial therapy initiation.  About 63.16% of the total samples for culture & sensitivity tested were reported positive. 39.58% of these positive cases showed resistance to empirical antibiotic therapy on lab reports.Conclusions: The study enables to obtain information on the antibiotic usage pattern in the pediatric population, focusing on prevalence of antibiotic misuse in our set-up and suggesting strategies of its minimization.

Structural and functional analysis of the Escherichia coli acid-sensing histidine kinase EvgS

The EvgS/EvgA two-component system of Escherichia coli is activated in response to low pH and alkali metals and regulates many genes, including those for the glutamate-dependent acid resistance system and a number of efflux pumps. EvgS, the sensor kinase, is one of five unconventional histidine kinases (HKs) in E. coli and has a large periplasmic domain and a cytoplasmic PAS domain in addition to phospho-acceptor, HK and dimerization, internal receiver, and phosphotransfer domains. Mutations that constitutively activate the protein at pH 7 map to the PAS domain. Here, we built a homology model of the periplasmic region of EvgS, based on the structure of the equivalent region of the BvgS homologue, to guide mutagenesis of potential key residues in this region. We show that histidine 226 is required for induction and that it is structurally colocated with a proline residue (P522) at the top of the predicted transmembrane helix that is expected to play a key role in passing information to the cytoplasmic domains. We also show that the constitutive mutations in the PAS domain can be further activated by low external pH. Expression of the cytoplasmic part of the protein alone also gives constitutive activation, which is lost if the constitutive PAS mutations are present. These findings are consistent with a model in which EvgS senses both external and internal pH and is activated by a shift from a tight inactive to a weak active dimer, and we present an analysis of the purified cytoplasmic portion of EvgS that supports this

Stability in Cosmology, from Einstein to Inflation

I investigate the role of stability in cosmology through two episodes from the recent history of cosmology: (1) Einstein’s static universe and Eddington’s demonstration of its instability, and (2) the flatness problem of the hot big bang model and its claimed solution by inflationary theory. These episodes illustrate differing reactions to instability in cosmological models, both positive ones and negative ones. To provide some context to these reactions, I also situate them in relation to perspectives on stability from dynamical systems theory and its epistemology. This reveals, for example, an insistence on stability as an extreme position in relation to the spectrum of physical systems which exhibit degrees of stability and fragility, one which has a pragmatic rationale, but not any deeper one

Common variants in CLDN2 and MORC4 genes confer disease susceptibility in patients with chronic pancreatitis

A recent Genome-wide Association Study (GWAS) identified association with variants in X-linked CLDN2 and MORC4 and PRSS1-PRSS2 loci with Chronic Pancreatitis (CP) in North American patients of European ancestry. We selected 9 variants from the reported GWAS and replicated the association with CP in Indian patients by genotyping 1807 unrelated Indians of Indo-European ethnicity, including 519 patients with CP and 1288 controls. The etiology of CP was idiopathic in 83.62% and alcoholic in 16.38% of 519 patients. Our study confirmed a significant association of 2 variants in CLDN2 gene (rs4409525—OR 1.71, P = 1.38 x 10-09; rs12008279—OR 1.56, P = 1.53 x 10-04) and 2 variants in MORC4 gene (rs12688220—OR 1.72, P = 9.20 x 10-09; rs6622126—OR 1.75, P = 4.04x10-05) in Indian patients with CP. We also found significant association at PRSS1-PRSS2 locus (OR 0.60; P = 9.92 x 10-06) and SAMD12-TNFRSF11B (OR 0.49, 95% CI [0.31–0.78], P = 0.0027). A variant in the gene MORC4 (rs12688220) showed significant interaction with alcohol (OR for homozygous and heterozygous risk allele -14.62 and 1.51 respectively, P = 0.0068) suggesting gene-environment interaction. A combined analysis of the genes CLDN2 and MORC4 based on an effective risk allele score revealed a higher percentage of individuals homozygous for the risk allele in CP cases with 5.09 fold enhanced risk in individuals with 7 or more effective risk alleles compared with individuals with 3 or less risk alleles (P = 1.88 x 10-14). Genetic variants in CLDN2 and MORC4 genes were associated with CP in Indian patients

Stability in Cosmology, from Einstein to Inflation

I investigate the role of stability in cosmology through two episodes from the recent history of cosmology: (1) Einstein’s static universe and Eddington’s demonstration of its instability, and (2) the flatness problem of the hot big bang model and its claimed solution by inflationary theory. These episodes illustrate differing reactions to instability in cosmological models, both positive ones and negative ones. To provide some context to these reactions, I also situate them in relation to perspectives on stability from dynamical systems theory and its epistemology. This reveals, for example, an insistence on stability as an extreme position in relation to the spectrum of physical systems which exhibit degrees of stability and fragility, one which has a pragmatic rationale, but not any deeper one

Real-time Monitoring for the Next Core-Collapse Supernova in JUNO

Core-collapse supernova (CCSN) is one of the most energetic astrophysical events in the Universe. The early and prompt detection of neutrinos before (pre-SN) and during the SN burst is a unique opportunity to realize the multi-messenger observation of the CCSN events. In this work, we describe the monitoring concept and present the sensitivity of the system to the pre-SN and SN neutrinos at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), which is a 20 kton liquid scintillator detector under construction in South China. The real-time monitoring system is designed with both the prompt monitors on the electronic board and online monitors at the data acquisition stage, in order to ensure both the alert speed and alert coverage of progenitor stars. By assuming a false alert rate of 1 per year, this monitoring system can be sensitive to the pre-SN neutrinos up to the distance of about 1.6 (0.9) kpc and SN neutrinos up to about 370 (360) kpc for a progenitor mass of 30$M_{\odot}$ for the case of normal (inverted) mass ordering. The pointing ability of the CCSN is evaluated by using the accumulated event anisotropy of the inverse beta decay interactions from pre-SN or SN neutrinos, which, along with the early alert, can play important roles for the followup multi-messenger observations of the next Galactic or nearby extragalactic CCSN.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figure

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection