Using an Ellipsoid Model to Track and Predict the Evolution and Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

We present a method for tracking and predicting the propagation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using the imagers on the STEREO and SOHO satellites. By empirically modeling the material between the inner core and leading edge of a CME as an expanding, outward propagating ellipsoid, we track its evolution in three-dimensional space. Though more complex empirical CME models have been developed, we examine the accuracy of this relatively simple geometric model, which incorporates relatively few physical assumptions, including i) a constant propagation angle and ii) an azimuthally symmetric structure. Testing our ellipsoid model developed herein on three separate CMEs, we find that it is an effective tool for predicting the arrival of density enhancements and the duration of each event near 1 AU. For each CME studied, the trends in the trajectory, as well as the radial and transverse expansion are studied from 0 to ~.3 AU to create predictions at 1 AU with an average accuracy of 2.9 hours.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figure

Speeds and arrival times of solar transients approximated by self-similar expanding circular fronts

The NASA STEREO mission opened up the possibility to forecast the arrival times, speeds and directions of solar transients from outside the Sun-Earth line. In particular, we are interested in predicting potentially geo-effective Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) from observations of density structures at large observation angles from the Sun (with the STEREO Heliospheric Imager instrument). We contribute to this endeavor by deriving analytical formulas concerning a geometric correction for the ICME speed and arrival time for the technique introduced by Davies et al. (2012, ApJ, in press) called Self-Similar Expansion Fitting (SSEF). This model assumes that a circle propagates outward, along a plane specified by a position angle (e.g. the ecliptic), with constant angular half width (lambda). This is an extension to earlier, more simple models: Fixed-Phi-Fitting (lambda = 0 degree) and Harmonic Mean Fitting (lambda = 90 degree). This approach has the advantage that it is possible to assess clearly, in contrast to previous models, if a particular location in the heliosphere, such as a planet or spacecraft, might be expected to be hit by the ICME front. Our correction formulas are especially significant for glancing hits, where small differences in the direction greatly influence the expected speeds (up to 100-200 km/s) and arrival times (up to two days later than the apex). For very wide ICMEs (2 lambda > 120 degree), the geometric correction becomes very similar to the one derived by M\"ostl et al. (2011, ApJ, 741, id. 34) for the Harmonic Mean model. These analytic expressions can also be used for empirical or analytical models to predict the 1 AU arrival time of an ICME by correcting for effects of hits by the flank rather than the apex, if the width and direction of the ICME in a plane are known and a circular geometry of the ICME front is assumed.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in "Solar Physics

Collaborative project to identify direct and distant pedigree relationships in apple

Pedigree information is fundamentally important in breeding programs, enabling breeders to know the source of valuable attributes and underlying alleles and to enlarge genetic diversity in a directed way. Many apple cultivars are related to each other through both recent and distant common ancestors. As apple trees are clonally propagated, long-lived, and widely adapted, many of the ancestors of modern cultivars are still present in global germplasm collections. Use of apple SNP arrays enables identification of direct and distant pedigree relationships with precision. An example is the elucidation of the \u27Honeycrisp\u27 pedigree using the 8K SNP array, which enabled further findings regarding the inheritance of important alleles for traits including scab resistance and soft scald susceptibility. To facilitate more discoveries across apple germplasm, a large-scale collaborative apple pedigree reconstruction project has been initiated. This project utilizes output from the Illumina Infinium 20K and Affymetrix Axiom 480K apple SNP arrays, a high quality genetic linkage map for the 20K array SNPs, and a data curation pipeline developed through the FruitBreedomics and RosBREED projects. Techniques using shared haplotype length statistics will be used alongside historical information to deduce distant pedigree relationships. The project involves various experts, germplasm collections, and academic institutions around the world and is open for further extension. It will provide findings useful for breeding programs, germplasm collections, geneticists, and historians

Interpreting mismatches between linguistic and genetic patterns among speakers of Tanimuka (Eastern Tukanoan) and Yukuna (Arawakan)

Horizon 2020(H2020)818854Descriptive and Comparative Linguistic

A Helicity-Based Method to Infer the CME Magnetic Field Magnitude in Sun and Geospace: Generalization and Extension to Sun-Like and M-Dwarf Stars and Implications for Exoplanet Habitability

Patsourakos et al. (Astrophys. J. 817, 14, 2016) and Patsourakos and Georgoulis (Astron. Astrophys. 595, A121, 2016) introduced a method to infer the axial magnetic field in flux-rope coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the solar corona and farther away in the interplanetary medium. The method, based on the conservation principle of magnetic helicity, uses the relative magnetic helicity of the solar source region as input estimates, along with the radius and length of the corresponding CME flux rope. The method was initially applied to cylindrical force-free flux ropes, with encouraging results. We hereby extend our framework along two distinct lines. First, we generalize our formalism to several possible flux-rope configurations (linear and nonlinear force-free, non-force-free, spheromak, and torus) to investigate the dependence of the resulting CME axial magnetic field on input parameters and the employed flux-rope configuration. Second, we generalize our framework to both Sun-like and active M-dwarf stars hosting superflares. In a qualitative sense, we find that Earth may not experience severe atmosphere-eroding magnetospheric compression even for eruptive solar superflares with energies ~ 10^4 times higher than those of the largest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) X-class flares currently observed. In addition, the two recently discovered exoplanets with the highest Earth-similarity index, Kepler 438b and Proxima b, seem to lie in the prohibitive zone of atmospheric erosion due to interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), except when they possess planetary magnetic fields that are much higher than that of Earth.Comment: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SoPh..292...89

Heliospheric Observations of STEREO-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections in 2008--2010: Lessons for Future Observations of Earth-Directed CMEs

We present a study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which impacted one of the STEREO spacecraft between January 2008 and early 2010. We focus our study on 20 CMEs which were observed remotely by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard the other STEREO spacecraft up to large heliocentric distances. We compare the predictions of the Fixed-Phi and Harmonic Mean (HM) fitting methods, which only differ by the assumed geometry of the CME. It is possible to use these techniques to determine from remote-sensing observations the CME direction of propagation, arrival time and final speed which are compared to in situ measurements. We find evidence that for large viewing angles, the HM fitting method predicts the CME direction better. However, this may be due to the fact that only wide CMEs can be successfully observed when the CME propagates more than 100 deg from the observing spacecraft. Overall eight CMEs, originating from behind the limb as seen by one of the STEREO spacecraft can be tracked and their arrival time at the other STEREO spacecraft can be successfully predicted. This includes CMEs, such as the events on 4 December 2009 and 9 April 2010, which were viewed 130 deg away from their direction of propagation. Therefore, we predict that some Earth-directed CMEs will be observed by the HIs until early 2013, when the separation between Earth and one of the STEREO spacecraft will be similar to the separation of the two STEREO spacecraft in 2009--2010.Comment: 21 pages, accepted to Solar Physic

Non-neoclassical up/down asymmetry of impurity emission on Alcator C-Mod

We demonstrate that existing theories are insufficient to explain up/down asymmetries of argon x-ray emission in Alcator C-Mod ohmic plasmas. Instead of the poloidal variation, ñ[subscript z]/〈n[subscript z]〉, being of order the inverse aspect ratio, ϵ, and scaling linearly with B[subscript t][superscript _ over n][subscript e]/I[2 over p], it is observed over 0.8 < r/a < 1.0 to be of order unity and exhibits a threshold behaviour between 3.5 <B[subscript t][superscript _ over n][subscript e]/I[subscript p] < 4.0 (T10[superscript 20] m[superscript −3] MA[superscript −1]). The transition from a poloidally symmetric to asymmetric impurity distribution is shown to occur at densities just below those that trigger a reversal of the core toroidal rotation direction, thought to be linked to the transition between the linear and saturated ohmic confinement regimes. A possible drive is discussed by which anomalous radial transport might sustain the impurity density asymmetry as the ratio of the perpendicular to parallel equilibration times, τ[subscript ⊥,z]/τ[subscript ∥,z], approaches unity. This explanation requires a strong up/down asymmetry in radial flux which, while not observable on C-Mod, has been measured in TEXT and Tore Supra ohmic plasmas.United States. Dept. of Energy (Contract DE-FC02-99ER54512)United States. Dept. of Energy (Fusion Research Postdoctoral Research Program

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

Jet size dependence of single jet suppression in lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s(NN)) = 2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Measurements of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions at the LHC provide direct sensitivity to the physics of jet quenching. In a sample of lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s) = 2.76 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of approximately 7 inverse microbarns, ATLAS has measured jets with a calorimeter over the pseudorapidity interval |eta| < 2.1 and over the transverse momentum range 38 < pT < 210 GeV. Jets were reconstructed using the anti-kt algorithm with values for the distance parameter that determines the nominal jet radius of R = 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The centrality dependence of the jet yield is characterized by the jet "central-to-peripheral ratio," Rcp. Jet production is found to be suppressed by approximately a factor of two in the 10% most central collisions relative to peripheral collisions. Rcp varies smoothly with centrality as characterized by the number of participating nucleons. The observed suppression is only weakly dependent on jet radius and transverse momentum. These results provide the first direct measurement of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions and complement previous measurements of dijet transverse energy imbalance at the LHC.Comment: 15 pages plus author list (30 pages total), 8 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Physics Letters B. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at http://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/HION-2011-02