The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels

Late Holocene earthquakes on the Papatea Fault and its role in past earthquake cycles, Marlborough, New Zealand

Publicado dentro del número especial "The Kaikōura earthquake", editado por Andrew Nicol, Andy Howell, Nicola Litchfield, Thomas Wilson, Stephen Bannister and Chris Massey.[EN] The north-striking sinistral reverse Papatea Fault ruptured with a very large (up to 12 m) oblique slip as part of the 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake in the northeastern South Island. Paleoseismic studies were undertaken at three sites along the Papatea Fault, named Murray’s roadcut, Jacqui’s Gully (both on the main strand), and Wharekiri trench (western strand). These sites provide evidence for up to three Late Holocene paleoearthquakes prior to 2016 (=E0) on this previously unmapped active fault, with preferred OxCal-modelled timings of 98–149 (E1), 546–645 cal yr BP (E2), and >738 cal yr BP (E3). Event correlations between the sites are generally consistent across these past events, implying that the two strands of the Papatea Fault link at depth and rupture together co-seismically as in 2016. Comparisons of its paleoseismic record with the Kekerengu Fault and uplift data from Waipapa Bay and Kaikōura, suggest that the Papatea Fault may have three distinct rupture modes: (i) Kaikōura-type multi-fault ruptures with multi-metre, anelastic block displacements and associated major landscape change; (ii) multi-fault earthquake ruptures with other regional fault combinations; and (iii) single-fault Papatea ruptures with metre-scale displacement. OxCal models offer the possibility that the E1 fault rupture occurred in 1855 CE.Funding was provided through a Natural Hazards Research Platform [grant number 2017-GNS-01-NHRP] to RML and GNS Science MBIE Strategic Science Investment Funding [grant number C05X1702].Peer reviewe

In-Home Coal and Wood Use and Lung Cancer Risk: A Pooled Analysis of the International Lung Cancer Consortium

10.1289/ehp.1002217Environmental Health Perspectives118121743-174

Alcohol consumption and lung cancer risk: A pooled analysis from the International Lung Cancer Consortium and the SYNERGY study

Background: There is inadequate evidence to determine whether there is an effect of alcohol consumption on lung cancer risk. We conducted a pooled analysis of data from the International Lung Cancer Consortium and the SYNERGY study to investigate this possible association by type of beverage with adjustment for other potential confounders. Methods: Twenty one case-control studies and one cohort study with alcohol-intake data obtained from questionnaires were included in this pooled analysis (19,149 cases and 362,340 controls). Adjusted odds ratios (OR) or hazard ratios (HR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for each measure of alcohol consumption. Effect estimates were combined using random or fixed-effects models where appropriate. Associations were examined for overall lung cancer and by histological type. Results: We observed an inverse association between overall risk of lung cancer and consumption of alcoholic beverages compared to non-drinkers, but the association was not monotonic. The lowest risk was observed for persons who consumed 10-19.9 g/day ethanol (OR vs. non-drinkers = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.91), where 1 drink is approximately 12-15 g. This J-shaped association was most prominent for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). The association with all lung cancer varied little by type of alcoholic beverage, but there were notable differences for SCC. We observed an association with beer intake (OR for >= 20 g/day vs nondrinker = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.90). Conclusions: Whether the non-monotonic associations we observed or the positive association between beer drinking and squamous cell carcinoma reflect real effects await future analyses and insights about possible biological mechanisms

Exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke and lung cancer by histological type: A pooled analysis of the International Lung Cancer Consortium (ILCCO)

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/108359/1/ijc28835.pd

MACSIMS : multiple alignment of complete sequences information management system

BACKGROUND: In the post-genomic era, systems-level studies are being performed that seek to explain complex biological systems by integrating diverse resources from fields such as genomics, proteomics or transcriptomics. New information management systems are now needed for the collection, validation and analysis of the vast amount of heterogeneous data available. Multiple alignments of complete sequences provide an ideal environment for the integration of this information in the context of the protein family. RESULTS: MACSIMS is a multiple alignment-based information management program that combines the advantages of both knowledge-based and ab initio sequence analysis methods. Structural and functional information is retrieved automatically from the public databases. In the multiple alignment, homologous regions are identified and the retrieved data is evaluated and propagated from known to unknown sequences with these reliable regions. In a large-scale evaluation, the specificity of the propagated sequence features is estimated to be >99%, i.e. very few false positive predictions are made. MACSIMS is then used to characterise mutations in a test set of 100 proteins that are known to be involved in human genetic diseases. The number of sequence features associated with these proteins was increased by 60%, compared to the features available in the public databases. An XML format output file allows automatic parsing of the MACSIM results, while a graphical display using the JalView program allows manual analysis. CONCLUSION: MACSIMS is a new information management system that incorporates detailed analyses of protein families at the structural, functional and evolutionary levels. MACSIMS thus provides a unique environment that facilitates knowledge extraction and the presentation of the most pertinent information to the biologist. A web server and the source code are available at

Alcohol and lung cancer risk among never smokers: A pooled analysis from the international lung cancer consortium and the SYNERGY study

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136447/1/ijc30618-sup-0001-supptables.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136447/2/ijc30618_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136447/3/ijc30618.pd

Associated Links Among Smoking, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, and Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Pooled Analysis in the International Lung Cancer Consortium.

Background The high relapse and mortality rate of small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) fuels the need for epidemiologic study to aid in its prevention. Methods We included 24 studies from the ILCCO collaboration. Random-effects panel logistic regression and cubic spline regression were used to estimate the effects of smoking behaviors on SCLC risk and explore their non-linearity. Further, we explored whether the risk of smoking on SCLC was mediated through COPD. Findings Significant dose–response relationships of SCLC risk were observed for all quantitative smoking variables. Smoking pack-years were associated with a sharper increase of SCLC risk for pack-years ranged 0 to approximately 50. The former smokers with longer cessation showed a 43%quit_for_5–9 years to 89%quit_for_≥ 20 years declined SCLC risk vs. subjects who had quit smoking < 5 years. Compared with non-COPD subjects, smoking behaviors showed a significantly higher effect on SCLC risk among COPD subjects, and further, COPD patients showed a 1.86-fold higher risk of SCLC. Furthermore, smoking behaviors on SCLC risk were significantly mediated through COPD which accounted for 0.70% to 7.55% of total effects. Interpretation This is the largest pooling study that provides improved understanding of smoking on SCLC, and further demonstrates a causal pathway through COPD that warrants further experimental study. Abbreviations COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CPG, cigarettes per day; ILCCO, International Lung Cancer Consortium; MeSH, medical subject headings; NSCLC, non-small cell lung cancer; OR, odds ratio; SCLC, small cell lung cancer

Lung Cancer Risk in Never-Smokers of European Descent is Associated With Genetic Variation in the 5(p)15.33 TERT-CLPTM1Ll Region

Introduction: Inherited susceptibility to lung cancer risk in never-smokers is poorly understood. The major reason for this gap in knowledge is that this disease is relatively uncommon (except in Asians), making it difficult to assemble an adequate study sample. In this study we conducted a genome-wide association study on the largest, to date, set of European-descent never-smokers with lung cancer. Methods: We conducted a two-phase (discovery and replication) genome-wide association study in never-smokers of European descent. We further augmented the sample by performing a meta-analysis with never-smokers from the recent OncoArray study, which resulted in a total of 3636 cases and 6295 controls. We also compare our findings with those in smokers with lung cancer. Results: We detected three genome-wide statistically significant single nucleotide polymorphisms rs31490 (odds ratio [OR]: 0.769, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.722-0.820; p value 5.31 x 10(-16)), rs380286 (OR: 0.770, 95% CI: 0.723-0.820; p value 4.32 x 10(-16)), and rs4975616 OR: 0.778, 95% CI: 0.730-0.829; p value 1.04 x 10(-14)). All three mapped to Chromosome 5 CLPTM1L-TERT region, previously shown to be associated with lung cancer risk in smokers and in never-smoker Asian women, and risk of other cancers including breast, ovarian, colorectal, and prostate. Conclusions: We found that genetic susceptibility to lung cancer in never-smokers is associated to genetic variants with pan-cancer risk effects. The comparison with smokers shows that top variants previously shown to be associated with lung cancer risk only confer risk in the presence of tobacco exposure, underscoring the importance of gene-environment interactions in the etiology of this disease. (C) 2019 International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)

Measurement of the inclusive isolated-photon cross section in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV using 36 fb−1 of ATLAS data

The differential cross section for isolated-photon production in pp collisions is measured at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC using an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb. The differential cross section is presented as a function of the photon transverse energy in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The differential cross section as a function of the absolute value of the photon pseudorapidity is also presented in different regions of photon transverse energy. Next-to-leading-order QCD calculations from Jetphox and Sherpa as well as next-to-next-to-leading-order QCD calculations from Nnlojet are compared with the measurement, using several parameterisations of the proton parton distribution functions. The predictions provide a good description of the data within the experimental and theoretical uncertainties. [Figure not available: see fulltext.