15 research outputs found

    Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

    Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

    Design, Simulation and Experimentation of an Axial Flow Sunflower-Threshing Machine with an Attached Screw Conveyor

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    Sunflower threshing is one of the most interesting field processes for making the sunflower ready for seed handling, drying, cleaning and oil extraction. One of the biggest problems observed during the sunflower threshing process is the accumulation of threshed crop on the first third of the threshing roller and passing off some unthreshed parts of sunflower heads. To solve the aforementioned problem and optimize the efficiency of the sunflower threshing process, this research was focused on devising and testing a sunflower threshing machine with a close threshing box system equipped with a screw conveyor that evenly distributed the feedstock of sunflower heads on the entire length of the threshing roller. The machine was tested to assess the seed damage rate, unthreshed seed percentage, threshing efficiency, machine productivity, power requirements and specific energy consumption. The evaluation was done under different roller rotational speeds (150, 200, 250 and 300 rpm) and feeding rates (600, 700, 800 and 900 kg/h). The obtained results revealed that the threshing evaluation parameters were affected significantly by the roller rotational speed and feeding rate. The threshing efficiency was observed to rise with the rise in the roller rotational speed, and it also rose with the increasing feed rate up to 800 kg/h and then started to descend. The unthreshed seed percentage decreased with the increase in the roller rotational speed for all feed rates, and it decreased with the increasing feed rate up to 800 kg/h and then started to increase at the higher feed rates. The damaged seed percentage, power requirement and machine productivity increased with the increase of the roller speed and feed rate. The Buckingham π theorem was followed to find an equation to predict the threshing efficiency, resulting in an equation with an R2 value of 0.9309. With elimination of the blockage problem and better threshing efficiency, this machine could be a good choice for small- to medium-sized sunflower farms

    Experimental Investigation of Traction Power Transfer Indices of Farm-Tractors for Efficient Energy Utilization in Soil Tillage and Cultivation Operations

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    Farm tractors in cultivation consume a big amount of fossil fuels and emit greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Improving traction performance and power transfer indices of wheeled tractors and field terrain soil with higher traction (pull ability) at optimal travel reduction (TR) can optimize energy utilization. This study compares the traction performance, fuel consumption, and field productivity, of a farm tractor equipped with a new drive wheel “rigid lugged wheel (RLW)” and conventional tire wheel (CTW) in field tillage operations. Tractor with RLW resulted 24.6 kN drawbar pull and 6.6 km.h−1 travel speed at 80% tractive efficiency and 15.6% TR. While with CTW, the drawbar pull and the travel speed were 23.2 kN and 6.0 km h−1 respectively at 68% tractive efficiency and 36.3% TR. The RLW resulted in improved traction performance with similar equipment weight. Tractor with RLW also resulted 220.5% lower TR, 14.8% higher field productivity, and 15.4% lower fuel consumption. RLW can control equipment weight and field traffic intensity with the improved traction performance of wheeled tractors and will make the field operations more energy-efficient and economical. For enhanced field drivability of RLW, further work is required to test for diverse field conditions and differently sized tractors

    Engineering Design, Kinematic and Dynamic Analysis of High Lugs Rigid Driving Wheel, a Traction Device for Conventional Agricultural Wheeled Tractors

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    Traction failure on loose terrain is common in conventional agricultural wheeled tractors due to poor traction ability and lower power transfer efficiency of drive wheels, which leads to excessive energy consumption and soil compaction in agriculture. To overcome the problem, this paper presents a new design of a rigid lugged wheel for use in field tillage operations. This wheel was designed according to field operational requirements and also provided with rubber pads for smooth on-road drives. Kinematic and dynamic analysis of new wheel designs were carried out to study how they move, how they interact with the soil, and how they generate drive force in loose terrain soil. The relationship of wheel lug motion trajectories, displacement, and velocity of the wheel relative to field conditions, different travel reduction rates, and lug penetration/wheel sinkage were analyzed. Wheel-terrain interaction and shear stress-shear displacement relationships when the wheel is driven in soft, deformable terrain were studied using classic soil mechanics principles. It is found that the component of thrust in the direction of driving, i.e., driving force, is ranged between 81.52% and 86.17%, while the vertical component is reported to be less than 30% and further decreases to 9%, which is the compaction avoiding factor. The relationships, thus developed, of wheel parameters, soil stress and thrust characteristics, and wheel drive force were derived and revealed that the traction performance, power transfer efficiency, and trafficability of tractors in loose terrain can be improved by using the newly proposed wheel. A finite element method was used to analyze the designed wheel model for structural stability and optimization. The theoretical analysis results of the new drive wheel are convincing, so further tests and field operation research are recommended for sustainable adoption

    Improving network performance by enabling explicit congestion notification (ECN) in SCTP control chunks

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    The need for a reliable transmission protocol that can cover the Transport Control Protocol (TCP) and User Datagram Protocol (UDP) has prompted the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) to define a new protocol called the Stream Control Transmission Protocol (SCTP).This paper proposes adding Explicit Congestion Notification (ECN) mechanism into SCTP chunks (INIT chunk, and INIT-ACK chunk) to reduce the delay of transferring important data during congestion as compared with the TCP and UDP protocols.This paper also discusses the details of adding ECN, and the reason for choosing Random Early Detection (RED). Through the experimental analysis, we compare SCTP enabled ECN in INIT-ACK chunk to SCTP without ECN enabled in INIT-ACK chunk and demonstrate the result of ECN impact on SCTP delay time

    Curing and thermal properties of co-polymerized tannin phenol–formaldehyde resin for bonding wood veneers

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    The aim of this study is to assess the curing behaviour and thermal properties of phenol–formaldehyde (PF) adhesives with different degree of tannin substitution using several thermal analysis techniques. Tannin from Acacia mearnsii bark was copolymerized with PF to form a bonding agent for plywood. The resin mixture was heated at 50 °C prior to adding 40% w/w tannin solution, followed by a continuous stirring for 2 h. The amounts of tannin substitution were 20%, 30% and 40% (w/w of PF solids) and 100% PF were used as control. The study shows that the addition of tannin quickened the gel time of the resin notably, parallel with the increase in viscosity of the resin. The dry shear bond strength of the tannin phenol–formaldehyde (TPF) co-polymer ranged between 1.71 and 2.58 MPa as compared to 3.41 MPa for PF. At higher addition of tannin, the shear bond strength reduced significantly predominantly the 40% tannin substitution. Formulation containing 20% tannin was found comparable to that of neat PF. Thermal test revealed that TPF starts to degrade at a lower temperature than PF resin. All TPF resins started to cure at about 125 °C and peaked at 160 °C compared to PF that began to cure at 145 °. The DMA of the resin showed an increase in the resin stiffness with an addition of tannin. These results imply that even though TPF starts to degrade at lower temperature, the cured TPF is relatively stronger than pure PF
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