Policymaking and Caseload Dynamics: Homeless Shelters

Many social problems can be understood as "conceptual caseloads" (e.g. people in poverty), and actual programmatic caseloads are a major, specific concern for policymakers and public administrators. Thus, a crucial and fairly general concern is how caseloads—whether conceptual or programmatic—can be reduced. To address this concern, officials often fall back on politically or intuitively attractive ideas—preventing people from entering caseloads, for example. Failure to incorporate caseload dynamics, however, may mean prevention and other caseload reduction policies will deliver much less than promised, and may cause caseloads to grow. In this paper, the authors first show how caseload size depends only on the number of entrants to a caseload and the rate at which people leave a caseload. With this framework in mind, they then address two common, seemingly appropriate policy responses: preventing entrants and hastening leaving. However, they show how too little is now known about homeless prevention to pin high hopes on its utility and that some social welfare problems, like homelessness, may be too inhospitable for prevention's logic. The authors then explain how allocating resources to hasten leaving is not as straightforward as policymakers have assumed but rather must recognize caseload dynamics to avoid unintended growth. They conclude by explaining some limits and opportunities in using caseload dynamics for policymaking

Homeless Family Shelters and Family Homelessness

One of the more valuable contributions of Peter Rossi's article is to remind us of the critical role that shelters play in defining and responding to the problem of homeless families. As Rossi points out, shelters help form our conceptualization of the problem-what kinds of families are homeless and why as well as their number. Perhaps more important, increasingly sophisticated shelters have come to define our policy response to family homelessness. Rossi reports that the number of family shelters soared throughout the middle and late 1980s and that they changed from simply providing a roof and food in an emergency to also providing social, medical, and psychological services for longer periods in more private quarters. And the future promises much more of the same. If the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) follows the suggestions its Assistant Secretary for Community Planning made for New York City, the Clinton homeless family policy will likely center around shelters (New York Commission on the Homeless, 1992). Here we want to extend Rossi's emphasis on the role of shelters in dealing with family homelessness. We make two arguments. One, shelters define the problem of family homelessness and therefore a particular conception of that problem. Two, shelters act to select from the population of poor families those who are worst off in some ways (housing, income, managing their lives, drug or alcohol addictions) and least able or willing to cope with circumstances other poor families do handle. We then explain that one reason why shelters play this role is because the ratio of "worst off, least able" poor families to the total number of poor families is so small that a device is needed to identify these families. Shelters are such a device. In the final section, we fill a lacuna in Rossi's causal analysis with a few ideas as to why shelter growth exploded in the mid-1980s and we explain our disagreement with Rossi's major policy suggestions. Because shelters house such a small proportion of all poor families and because few families stay sheltered very long, Rossi's recommendations are a very inefficient way to end homelessness. Also, the amounts of money entailed in his proposals are so large they are unlikely to be appropriated; and if lesser amounts are appropriated, they are unlikely, absent targeting, to reach families apt to become homeless

What does inflation really predict?

If the inflaton potential has multiple minima, as may be expected in, e.g., the string theory "landscape", inflation predicts a probability distribution for the cosmological parameters describing spatial curvature (Omega_tot), dark energy (rho_Lambda, w, etc.), the primordial density fluctuations (Omega_tot, dark energy (rho_Lambda, w, etc.). We compute this multivariate probability distribution for various classes of single-field slow-roll models, exploring its dependence on the characteristic inflationary energy scales, the shape of the potential V and and the choice of measure underlying the calculation. We find that unless the characteristic scale Delta-phi on which V varies happens to be near the Planck scale, the only aspect of V that matters observationally is the statistical distribution of its peaks and troughs. For all energy scales and plausible measures considered, we obtain the predictions Omega_tot ~ 1+-0.00001, w=-1 and rho_Lambda in the observed ballpark but uncomfortably high. The high energy limit predicts n_s ~ 0.96, dn_s/dlnk ~ -0.0006, r ~ 0.15 and n_t ~ -0.02, consistent with observational data and indistinguishable from eternal phi^2-inflation. The low-energy limit predicts 5 parameters but prefers larger Q and redder n_s than observed. We discuss the coolness problem, the smoothness problem and the pothole paradox, which severely limit the viable class of models and measures. Our findings bode well for detecting an inflationary gravitational wave signature with future CMB polarization experiments, with the arguably best-motivated single-field models favoring the detectable level r ~ 0.03. (Abridged)Comment: Replaced to match accepted JCAP version. Improved discussion, references. 42 pages, 17 fig

Yielded to Christ or conformed to this world? Postwar Mennonite responses to labour activism

This is the accepted version of the manuscript.The urbanization of North American Mennonites after the Second World War necessitated a reconsideration of Mennonite religious beliefs. Post-war concerns for social justice led to a greater emphasis on non-violence and agape at the expense of Gelassenheit. The tenor of Mennonite church conference resolutions regarding labour union membership changed; while skepticism remained regarding the wisdom of union involvement, the door was left open for participation in unions. The labour militancy of the 1970s led Manitoba Mennonites to re-examine their engagement with the labour movement, a process that has continued to the present day. Without further research on Mennonite workplaces, it cannot be known exactly how the change in religious emphases has affected Mennonite identity.https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/00084298070360020

Methamphetamine Use and Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Skin Infections

Drug use may be contributing to the spread of MRSA in a rural southeastern US community

DRD2 C957T polymorphism is associated with improved 6-month verbal learning following traumatic brain injury

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) often leads to heterogeneous clinical outcomes, which may be influenced by genetic variation. A single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) may influence cognitive deficits following TBI. However, part of the association with DRD2 has been attributed to genetic variability within the adjacent ankyrin repeat and kinase domain containing 1 protein (ANKK1). Here, we utilize the Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Pilot (TRACK-TBI Pilot) study to investigate whether a novel DRD2 C957T polymorphism (rs6277) influences outcome on a cognitive battery at 6 months following TBI-California Verbal Learning Test (CVLT-II), Wechsler Adult Intelligence Test Processing Speed Index Composite Score (WAIS-PSI), and Trail Making Test (TMT). Results in 128 Caucasian subjects show that the rs6277 T-allele associates with better verbal learning and recall on CVLT-II Trials 1-5 (T-allele carrier 52.8 ± 1.3 points, C/C 47.9 ± 1.7 points; mean increase 4.9 points, 95% confidence interval [0.9 to 8.8]; p = 0.018), Short-Delay Free Recall (T-carrier 10.9 ± 0.4 points, C/C 9.7 ± 0.5 points; mean increase 1.2 points [0.1 to 2.5]; p = 0.046), and Long-Delay Free Recall (T-carrier 11.5 ± 0.4 points, C/C 10.2 ± 0.5 points; mean increase 1.3 points [0.1 to 2.5]; p = 0.041) after adjusting for age, education years, Glasgow Coma Scale, presence of acute intracranial pathology on head computed tomography scan, and genotype of the ANKK1 SNP rs1800497 using multivariable regression. No association was found between DRD2 C947T and non-verbal processing speed (WAIS-PSI) or mental flexibility (TMT) at 6 months. Hence, DRD2 C947T (rs6277) may be associated with better performance on select cognitive domains independent of ANKK1 following TBI

Planck 2013 results. XXII. Constraints on inflation

We analyse the implications of the Planck data for cosmic inflation. The Planck nominal mission temperature anisotropy measurements, combined with the WMAP large-angle polarization, constrain the scalar spectral index to be ns = 0:9603 _ 0:0073, ruling out exact scale invariance at over 5_: Planck establishes an upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio of r < 0:11 (95% CL). The Planck data thus shrink the space of allowed standard inflationary models, preferring potentials with V00 < 0. Exponential potential models, the simplest hybrid inflationary models, and monomial potential models of degree n _ 2 do not provide a good fit to the data. Planck does not find statistically significant running of the scalar spectral index, obtaining dns=dln k = 0:0134 _ 0:0090. We verify these conclusions through a numerical analysis, which makes no slowroll approximation, and carry out a Bayesian parameter estimation and model-selection analysis for a number of inflationary models including monomial, natural, and hilltop potentials. For each model, we present the Planck constraints on the parameters of the potential and explore several possibilities for the post-inflationary entropy generation epoch, thus obtaining nontrivial data-driven constraints. We also present a direct reconstruction of the observable range of the inflaton potential. Unless a quartic term is allowed in the potential, we find results consistent with second-order slow-roll predictions. We also investigate whether the primordial power spectrum contains any features. We find that models with a parameterized oscillatory feature improve the fit by __2 e_ _ 10; however, Bayesian evidence does not prefer these models. We constrain several single-field inflation models with generalized Lagrangians by combining power spectrum data with Planck bounds on fNL. Planck constrains with unprecedented accuracy the amplitude and possible correlation (with the adiabatic mode) of non-decaying isocurvature fluctuations. The fractional primordial contributions of cold dark matter (CDM) isocurvature modes of the types expected in the curvaton and axion scenarios have upper bounds of 0.25% and 3.9% (95% CL), respectively. In models with arbitrarily correlated CDM or neutrino isocurvature modes, an anticorrelated isocurvature component can improve the _2 e_ by approximately 4 as a result of slightly lowering the theoretical prediction for the ` <_ 40 multipoles relative to the higher multipoles. Nonetheless, the data are consistent with adiabatic initial conditions