The probabilistic aggregate consumer exposure model (PACEM): Validation and comparison to a lower-tier assessment for the cyclic siloxane D5

a b s t r a c t a r t i c l e i n f o Current practice of chemical risk assessment for consumer product ingredients still rarely exercises the aggregation of multi-source exposure. However, focusing on a single dominant source/pathway combination may lead to a significant underestimation of the risk for substances present in numerous consumer products, which often are used simultaneously. Moreover, in most cases complex multi-route exposure scenarios also need to be accounted for. This paper introduces and evaluates the performance of the Probabilistic Aggregate Consumer Exposure Model (PACEM) applied in the context of a tiered approach to exposure assessment for ingredients in cosmetics and personal care products (C&PCPs) using decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) as a worked example. It is demonstrated that PACEM predicts a more realistic, but still conservative aggregate exposure within the Dutch adult population when compared to a deterministic point estimate obtained in a lower tier screening assessment. An overall validation of PACEM is performed by quantitatively relating and comparing its estimates to currently available human biomonitoring and environmental sampling data. Moderate (by maximum one order of magnitude) overestimation of exposure is observed due to a justified conservatism built into the model structure, resulting in the tool being suitable for risk assessment

CRISPR Typing and Subtyping for Improved Laboratory Surveillance of Salmonella Infections

Laboratory surveillance systems for salmonellosis should ideally be based on the rapid serotyping and subtyping of isolates. However, current typing methods are limited in both speed and precision. Using 783 strains and isolates belonging to 130 serotypes, we show here that a new family of DNA repeats named CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) is highly polymorphic in Salmonella. We found that CRISPR polymorphism was strongly correlated with both serotype and multilocus sequence type. Furthermore, spacer microevolution discriminated between subtypes within prevalent serotypes, making it possible to carry out typing and subtyping in a single step. We developed a high-throughput subtyping assay for the most prevalent serotype, Typhimurium. An open web-accessible database was set up, providing a serotype/spacer dictionary and an international tool for strain tracking based on this innovative, powerful typing and subtyping tool

Combinations of single-top-quark production cross-section measurements and vertical bar f(LV)V(tb)vertical bar determinations at root s=7 and 8 TeV with the ATLAS and CMS experiments

This paper presents the combinations of single-top-quark production cross-section measurements by the ATLAS and CMS Collaborations, using data from LHC proton-proton collisions at = 7 and 8 TeV corresponding to integrated luminosities of 1.17 to 5.1 fb(-1) at = 7 TeV and 12.2 to 20.3 fb(-1) at = 8 TeV. These combinations are performed per centre-of-mass energy and for each production mode: t-channel, tW, and s-channel. The combined t-channel cross-sections are 67.5 +/- 5.7 pb and 87.7 +/- 5.8 pb at = 7 and 8 TeV respectively. The combined tW cross-sections are 16.3 +/- 4.1 pb and 23.1 +/- 3.6 pb at = 7 and 8 TeV respectively. For the s-channel cross-section, the combination yields 4.9 +/- 1.4 pb at = 8 TeV. The square of the magnitude of the CKM matrix element V-tb multiplied by a form factor f(LV) is determined for each production mode and centre-of-mass energy, using the ratio of the measured cross-section to its theoretical prediction. It is assumed that the top-quark-related CKM matrix elements obey the relation |V-td|, |V-ts| << |V-tb|. All the |f(LV)V(tb)|(2) determinations, extracted from individual ratios at = 7 and 8 TeV, are combined, resulting in |f(LV)V(tb)| = 1.02 +/- 0.04 (meas.) +/- 0.02 (theo.). All combined measurements are consistent with their corresponding Standard Model predictions.Peer reviewe

TRY plant trait database – enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits - the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants - determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait‐based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits - almost complete coverage for ‘plant growth form’. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait–environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Time to Switch to Second-line Antiretroviral Therapy in Children With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Europe and Thailand.

Background: Data on durability of first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are limited. We assessed time to switch to second-line therapy in 16 European countries and Thailand. Methods: Children aged <18 years initiating combination ART (≥2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors [NRTIs] plus nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor [NNRTI] or boosted protease inhibitor [PI]) were included. Switch to second-line was defined as (i) change across drug class (PI to NNRTI or vice versa) or within PI class plus change of ≥1 NRTI; (ii) change from single to dual PI; or (iii) addition of a new drug class. Cumulative incidence of switch was calculated with death and loss to follow-up as competing risks. Results: Of 3668 children included, median age at ART initiation was 6.1 (interquartile range (IQR), 1.7-10.5) years. Initial regimens were 32% PI based, 34% nevirapine (NVP) based, and 33% efavirenz based. Median duration of follow-up was 5.4 (IQR, 2.9-8.3) years. Cumulative incidence of switch at 5 years was 21% (95% confidence interval, 20%-23%), with significant regional variations. Median time to switch was 30 (IQR, 16-58) months; two-thirds of switches were related to treatment failure. In multivariable analysis, older age, severe immunosuppression and higher viral load (VL) at ART start, and NVP-based initial regimens were associated with increased risk of switch. Conclusions: One in 5 children switched to a second-line regimen by 5 years of ART, with two-thirds failure related. Advanced HIV, older age, and NVP-based regimens were associated with increased risk of switch

A simple steady-state model for carry-over of aflatoxins from feed to cow's milk.

A simple steady-state model is derived from two kinetic one-compartment models for the disposition of aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) and aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) in the lactating cow. The model relates daily intake of AFB1 in feed of dairy cattle and the cow's lactation status to resulting concentrations of AFM1 in milk. Moreover, assuming a linear relationship between the cow's lactation status and feed intake, the model relates daily milk production and AFB1 concentration in total feed to AFM1 levels in milk. The model explains similar experimental outcomes from different investigations into carry-over of aflatoxins from feed to milk. Although it is difficult to set a permanent limit for AFB1 in feed, the European Union (EU) limit of 5 microg AFB1 kg(-1) concentrate has proved, thus far, to be an appropriate level in preventing the EU limit of 0.05 microg AFM1 kg(-1) milk being exceeded

Reporting and modeling of results below the limit of detection

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PACEMweb: a tool for aggregate consumer exposure assessment

Background: To ascertain the safe use of chemicals that are used in multiple consumer products, the aggregate human exposure, arising from combined use of multiple consumer products needs to be assessed. Objective: In this work the Probabilistic Aggregate Consumer Exposure Model (PACEM) is presented and discussed. PACEM is implemented in the publicly available web tool, PACEMweb, for aggregate consumer exposure assessment. Methods: PACEM uses a person-oriented simulation method that is based on realistic product usage information obtained in surveys from several European countries. PACEM evaluates aggregate exposure in a population considering individual use and co-use patterns as well as variation in product composition. Product usage data is included on personal care products (PCPs) and household cleaning products (HCPs). Results: PACEM has been implemented in a web tool that supports broad use in research as well as regulatory risk assessment. PACEM has been evaluated in a number of applications, testing and illustrating the advantage of the person-oriented modeling method. Also, PACEM assessments have been evaluated by comparing its results with biomonitoring information. Significance: PACEM enables the assessment of realistic aggregate exposure to chemicals in consumer products. It provides detailed insight into the distribution of exposure in a population as well as products that contribute the most to exposure. This allows for better informed decision making in the risk management of chemicals. Impact: Realistic assessment of the total, aggregate exposure of consumers to chemicals in consumer products is necessary to guarantee the safe use of chemicals in these products. PACEMweb provides, for the first time, a publicly available tool to assist in realistic aggregate exposure assessment of consumers to chemicals in consumer products

APROBA-Plus: A probabilistic tool to evaluate and express uncertainty in hazard characterization and exposure assessment of substances.

To facilitate the application of probabilistic risk assessment, the WHO released the APROBA tool. This tool applies lognormal uncertainty distributions to the different aspects of the hazard characterization, resulting in a probabilistic health-based guidance value. The current paper describes an extension, APROBA-Plus, which combines the output from the probabilistic hazard characterization with the probabilistic exposure to rapidly characterize risk and its uncertainty. The uncertainty in exposure is graphically compared with the uncertainty in the target human dose, i.e. the dose that complies with the specified protection goals. APROBA-Plus is applied to several case studies, resulting in distinct outcomes and illustrating that APROBA-Plus could serve as a standard extension of routine risk assessments. By visualizing the uncertainties, APROBA-Plus provides a more transparent and informative outcome than the more usual deterministic approaches, so that risk managers can make better informed decisions. For example, APROBA-Plus can help in deciding whether risk-reducing measures are warranted or that a refined risk assessment would first be needed. If the latter, the tool can be used to prioritize possible refinements. APROBA-Plus may also be used to rank substances into different risk categories, based on potential health risks without being compromised by different levels of conservatism that may be associated with point estimates of risk

Direct and Air-Mediated Transfer of Labeled SVOCs from Indoor Sources to Dust.

Two small-scale field studies were conducted to investigate the transfer of substances from products into dust due to direct and air-mediated transfer. The project focused on semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs), which are frequently found in and re-emitted from dust. For the field studies, four artificial products containing deuterium-labeled SVOCs (eight phthalates and adipates) were installed in residential indoor environments. Two plastic products were installed vertically to investigate substance transfer due to evaporation into air. One plastic product and a carpet were installed horizontally to investigate the direct transfer from source to dust. A pyrethroid was intentionally released by spraying a commercial spray. Dust samples were collected from the floor, elevated surfaces in the room and the surfaces of the horizontally installed products. We observed that the dust concentrations of substances exclusively transferred via air were similar at different collection sites, but the concentrations of chemicals present in horizontal products were up to 3 orders of magnitude higher in dust deposited on the source. We conclude that direct transfer from source into dust substantially increases the final SVOC concentration in dust in contact with the source, regardless of the vapor pressure of investigated SVOCs, and may lead to larger human exposure