Effects of the Temporal Variability of Storm Surges on Coastal Flooding

Assessments of flood exposure and risk are usually conducted for individual events with a specific peak water level and hydrograph, without considering variations in the temporal evolution (duration and intensity) of storm surges. Here we investigate the influence of temporal variability of storm surge events on flood characteristics in coastal zones, namely flood extent and inundation depth, and assess the associated flood exposure in terms of affected properties for the case of the municipality of Eckernförde, Germany. We use a nested hydrodynamic model to simulate five physically plausible, stochastically simulated storm surge events, with peak water levels corresponding to a univariate return period of 200 years and varying intensities. In a second step, the events are also combined with high-end sea-level rise projections corresponding to the RCP 8.5 scenario to analyze if the influence of temporal variability changes with rising sea-levels. Results show differences exceeding 5% in flood extent when comparing storm surges with the highest and lowest intensities. The number of properties exposed differs by approximately 20%. Differences in mean and maximum inundation depths are approximately 5%, both with and without sea-level rise. However, deviations in flood extent increase by more than 20%, depending on the sea-level rise projection, whereas differences in the number of exposed properties decrease. Our findings indicate that the temporal variability of storm surges can have considerable influence on flood extent and exposure in the study area. Taking into account that flood extent increases with rising sea-levels, we recommend that uncertainty related to the temporal variability of storm surges is represented in future flood risk assessments to ensure efficient planning and to provide a more comprehensive assessment of exposed infrastructure and assets

In-line evanescent-field-coupled THz bandpass mux/demux fabricated by additive layer manufacturing technology

In this research, we present the design, fabrication, and experimental validation of 3D printed bandpass filters and mux/demux elements for terahertz frequencies. The filters consist of a set of in-line polystyrene (PS) rectangular waveguides, separated by 100 µm, 200 µm, and 400 µm air gaps. The principle of operation for the proposed filters resides in coupled-mode theory. Q-factors of up to 3.4 are observed, and additionally, the experimental evidence demonstrates that the Q-factor of the filters can be improved by adding fiber elements to the design. Finally, using two independent THz broadband channels, we demonstrate the first mux/demux device based on 3D printed in-line filters for the THz range. This approach represents a fast, robust, and low-cost solution for the next generation of THz devices for communications

Design and fabrication of 3-D printed conductive polymer structures for THz polarization control

In this paper, we numerically and experimentally demonstrate the inverse polarization effect in three-dimensional (3-D) printed polarizers for the frequency range of 0.5 - 2.7 THz. The polarizers simply consist of 3-D printed strip lines of conductive polylactic acid (CPLA, Proto-Pasta) and do not require a substrate or any further metallic deposition. The experimental and numerical results show that the proposed structure acts as a broadband polarizer between the range of 0.3 THz to 2.7 THz, in which the inverse polarization effect is clearly seen for frequencies above 0.5 THz. In the inverse polarization effect, the transmission of the transverse electric (TE) component exceeds that of the TM component, in contrast to the behavior of a typical wire-grid polarizer. We show how the performance of the polarizers depends on the spacing and thickness of the CPLA structure; extinction ratios higher than 20 dB are achieved. This is the first report using CPLA to fabricate THz polarizers, demonstrating the potential of using conductive polymers to design THz components efficiently and robustly

Prediction of visibility and aerosol within the operational Met Office unified model. I: Model formulation and variational assimilation

The formulation and performance of the Met Office visibility analysis and prediction system are described. The visibility diagnostic within the limited-area Unified Model is a function of humidity and a prognostic aerosol content. The aerosol model includes advection, industrial and general urban sources, plus boundary-layer mixing and removal by rain. The assimilation is a 3-dimensional variational scheme in which the visibility observation operator is a very nonlinear function of humidity, aerosol and temperature. A quality control scheme for visibility data is included. Visibility observations can give rise to humidity increments of significant magnitude compared with the direct impact of humidity observations. We present the results of sensitivity studies which show the contribution of different components of the system to improved skill in visibility forecasts. Visibility assimilation is most important within the first 6-12 hours of the forecast and for visibilities below 1 km, while modelling of aerosol sources and advection is important for slightly higher visibilities (1-5 km) and is still significant at longer forecast time

A systems approach using the functional resonance analysis method to support fluoride varnish application for children attending general dental practice

Background All children attending General Dental Practice in Scotland are recommended to receive twice-yearly applications of sodium fluoride varnish to prevent childhood caries, yet application is variable. Development of complex interventions requires theorizing and modelling to understand context. This study applies the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to produce a sociotechnical systems model and identify opportunities for intervention to support application. Methods The FRAM was used to synthesise data which were: routine monitoring of fluoride varnish application in 2015/16; a longitudinal survey with practitioners (n = 1090); in-depth practitioner and key informant interviews (n = 43); and a ‘world café’ workshop (n = 56). Results We describe a detailed model of functions linked to application, and use this to make recommendations for system-wide intervention. Conclusions Rigorous research is required to produce accessible models of complex systems in healthcare. This novel paper shows how careful articulation of the functions associated with fluoride varnish application can support future improvement efforts

Improving risk management for violence in mental health services: a multimethods approach

contractual_start_date: 07-2008 editorial_review_begun: 07-2014 accepted_for_publication: 06-2015contractual_start_date: 07-2008 editorial_review_begun: 07-2014 accepted_for_publication: 06-2015contractual_start_date: 07-2008 editorial_review_begun: 07-2014 accepted_for_publication: 06-2015contractual_start_date: 07-2008 editorial_review_begun: 07-2014 accepted_for_publication: 06-201

Longitudinal Visuomotor Development in a Malaria Endemic Area: Cerebral Malaria and Beyond

Paediatric cerebral malaria is the most serious complication of Plasmodium falciparum infection. While the majority recover, long-term cognitive impairment has been highlighted as a significant and neglected problem. Persistent or serious deficits in processes such as attention or behavioural inhibition should be manifest in changes to performance on oculomotor tasks. Therefore we investigated the impact of cerebral malaria on the development of reflexive pro-saccades and antisaccades. In a longitudinal study, 47 children previously admitted with retinopathy-confirmed cerebral malaria (mean age at admission 54 months), were compared with 37 local healthy controls (mean ages at first study visit 117 and 110 months respectively). In each of three or four test sessions, over a period of up to 32 months, participants completed 100 prosaccade tasks and 100 antisaccade tasks. Eye movements were recorded using infrared reflectance oculography; prosaccade, correct antisaccade and error prosaccade latency, and antisaccade directional error rate were calculated. Hierarchical linear modelling was used to investigate the effect of age and the influence of cerebral malaria on these parameters. Data were also collected from an independent, older group (mean age 183 months) of 37 local healthy participants in a separate cross-sectional study. Longitudinal data exhibited the expected decrease in latency with age for all saccade types, and a decrease in the antisaccade directional error rate. Hierarchical linear modelling confirmed that age had a statistically significant effect on all parameters (p< = 0.001). However, there were no statistically significant differences between the cerebral malaria and control groups. Combining groups, comparison with the literature demonstrated that antisaccade directional error rate for the Malawi sample was significantly higher than expected, while latencies for all saccade types were indistinguishable from published. The high directional error rate was also confirmed in the older, healthy Malawian participants from the cross sectional study. Our observation of similar oculomotor performance in cerebral malaria and control groups at long follow-up periods suggests that cerebral malaria survivors are not at a generally increased risk of persistent cognitive deficits. Our data raise questions about the prevailing hypothesis that cerebral malaria has gross impacts on the development of processes such as attention and behavioural inhibition. More importantly, our novel finding of a clear difference in antisaccade performance between all of the Malawi participants and published data suggests that the Malawian paediatric population as a whole faces serious challenges to cognitive development beyond cerebral malaria

Genomic investigations of unexplained acute hepatitis in children

Since its first identification in Scotland, over 1,000 cases of unexplained paediatric hepatitis in children have been reported worldwide, including 278 cases in the UK1. Here we report an investigation of 38 cases, 66 age-matched immunocompetent controls and 21 immunocompromised comparator participants, using a combination of genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic and immunohistochemical methods. We detected high levels of adeno-associated virus 2 (AAV2) DNA in the liver, blood, plasma or stool from 27 of 28 cases. We found low levels of adenovirus (HAdV) and human herpesvirus 6B (HHV-6B) in 23 of 31 and 16 of 23, respectively, of the cases tested. By contrast, AAV2 was infrequently detected and at low titre in the blood or the liver from control children with HAdV, even when profoundly immunosuppressed. AAV2, HAdV and HHV-6 phylogeny excluded the emergence of novel strains in cases. Histological analyses of explanted livers showed enrichment for T cells and B lineage cells. Proteomic comparison of liver tissue from cases and healthy controls identified increased expression of HLA class 2, immunoglobulin variable regions and complement proteins. HAdV and AAV2 proteins were not detected in the livers. Instead, we identified AAV2 DNA complexes reflecting both HAdV-mediated and HHV-6B-mediated replication. We hypothesize that high levels of abnormal AAV2 replication products aided by HAdV and, in severe cases, HHV-6B may have triggered immune-mediated hepatic disease in genetically and immunologically predisposed children