The limits of human predictions of recidivism.

Dressel and Farid recently found that laypeople were as accurate as statistical algorithms in predicting whether a defendant would reoffend, casting doubt on the value of risk assessment tools in the criminal justice system. We report the results of a replication and extension of Dressel and Farid's experiment. Under conditions similar to the original study, we found nearly identical results, with humans and algorithms performing comparably. However, algorithms beat humans in the three other datasets we examined. The performance gap between humans and algorithms was particularly pronounced when, in a departure from the original study, participants were not provided with immediate feedback on the accuracy of their responses. Algorithms also outperformed humans when the information provided for predictions included an enriched (versus restricted) set of risk factors. These results suggest that algorithms can outperform human predictions of recidivism in ecologically valid settings

against using the PCRA to inform front-end sentencing decisions or back-end decisions about release without first conducting research on its use in these contexts, given that the PCRA was not designed for those purposes

Abstract One way to unwind mass incarceration without compromising public safety is to use risk assessment instruments in sentencing and corrections. These instruments figure prominently in current reforms, but controversy has begun to swirl around their use. The principal concern is that benefits in crime control will be offset by costs in social justice-a disparate and adverse effect on racial minorities and the poor. Based on a sample of 34,794 federal offenders, we empirically examine the relationships among race (Black vs. White), actuarial risk assessment (the Post Conviction Risk Assessment [PCRA]), and re-arrest (for any/violent crime). First, application of well-established principles of psychological science revealed no real evidence of test bias for the PCRA-the instrument strongly predicts re-arrest for both Black and White offenders and a given score has essentially the same meaning--i.e., same probability of recidivism-across groups. Second, Black offenders obtain modestly higher average scores on the PCRA than White offenders (d= .43; appx. 27% non-overlap in groups' scores). So some applications of the PCRA could create disparate impact-which is defined by moral rather than empirical criteria. Third, most (69%) of the racial difference in PCRA scores is attributable to criminal history-which strongly predicts recidivism for both groups and is embedded in sentencing guidelines. Finally, criminal history is not a proxy for race-instead, it fully mediates the otherwise weak relationship between race and re-arrest. Data may be more helpful than rhetoric, if the goal is to improve practice at this opportune moment in history

High Risk, Not Hopeless: Correctional Intervention For People At Risk For Violence

Across the United States, jurisdictions are working to reduce absurdly high incarceration rates without jeopardizing historically low crime rates. Well-validated risk assessment can identify people at low risk who can be managed safely in the community. But what about high-risk people? In this Article, we synthesize research on effective ways to identify and reduce risk of reoffending among people at high risk of recidivism, including people with psychopathic traits. To maximize the impact of criminal justice reform, we recommend that policymakers prioritize high risk clients for treatment, provide treatments most likely to work with these clients, and reframe incarceration as an opportunity for excellent service provision

Justice Policy Reform for High-Risk Juveniles: Using Science to Achieve Large-Scale Crime Reduction

After a distinctly punitive era, a period of remarkable reform in juvenile crime regulation has begun. Practical urgency has fueled interest in both crime reduction and research on the prediction and malleability of criminal behavior. In this rapidly changing context, high-risk youth – the small proportion of the population where crime is concentrated – present a conundrum. Research indicates that these are precisely the individuals to intensively treat to maximize crime reduction, but there are both real and imagined barriers to doing so. Institutional placement or criminal court processing can exclude these youths from interventions that would better protect public safety. In this article, we synthesize relevant research to help resolve this challenge in a manner that is consistent with the law’s core principles. In our view, adolescence offers unique opportunities for risk reduction that could (with modifications) be realized in the juvenile justice system in cooperation with other social institutions

The P-psychopathy continuum: facets of psychoticism and their associations with psychopathic tendencies

Eysenck proposed that psychopathy is at the extreme end of the Psychoticism (P) personality dimension (Eysenck & Eysenck, 1976). This study examined (i) whether psychopathy-relevant P items of the EPQ-R can form psychometrically valid facets that map onto the conceptualization of the two-, three- or four-factor models of psychopathy using confirmatory factor analysis (N=577) in a normal population; and (ii) whether those P-facets have criteria-related validity in associations with self-reported primary and secondary psychopathy, impulsivity (subsample N=306), and measures of trait empathy and aggression (subsample N=212). The four-factor model incorporating affective, interpersonal, impulsive, and antisocial facets of P was superior to the two-factor model; however, the three-factor conceptualization excluding the antisocial P-facet was the best fit. The facets show predicted divergent associations with primary and secondary self-reported psychopathy and trait measures. Findings are discussed in light of Eysenck’s P-psychopathy continuity hypothesis and the applicability of facet approaches to the prediction of psychopathic and antisocial tendencies

Donor Relations in the Twenty-First Century

This article explores the professional literature regarding donor relations and then addresses many issues the author has experienced in working with twenty-first century donors. Since manuscript repositories would not exist without individuals willing to donate their materials, it is vital that curators and archivists establish good relationships with their donors and maintain those relationships throughout their careers since many of them will continue to interact with their materials for decades after the initial gift. However, the twenty-first century has brought with it new challenges regarding donor relations that need to be recognized and addressed

Misplaced Trust: Measuring the Interference of Machine Learning in Human Decision-Making

ML decision-aid systems are increasingly common on the web, but their successful integration relies on people trusting them appropriately: they should use the system to fill in gaps in their ability, but recognize signals that the system might be incorrect. We measured how people's trust in ML recommendations differs by expertise and with more system information through a task-based study of 175 adults. We used two tasks that are difficult for humans: comparing large crowd sizes and identifying similar-looking animals. Our results provide three key insights: (1) People trust incorrect ML recommendations for tasks that they perform correctly the majority of the time, even if they have high prior knowledge about ML or are given information indicating the system is not confident in its prediction; (2) Four different types of system information all increased people's trust in recommendations; and (3) Math and logic skills may be as important as ML for decision-makers working with ML recommendations.Comment: 10 page

Identifying Psychiatric Patients at Risk for Repeated Involvement in Violence: The Next Step Toward Intensive Community Treatment Programs

Recent studies indicate that a small, but critical subgroup of psychiatric patients is involved in a disproportionately large number of violent incidents among the mentally ill. This subgroup is an appropriate focus for intensive community-based treatment programs designed to reduce violence. However, little research has been conducted on methods for identifying patients who repeatedly become involved in violent incidents. This article describes a large follow-up study in which these patients were identified using a simple screening process that is feasible for routine use. This screening process efficiently and effectively identified a small minority of patients who were at risk for repeated involvement in violence. Patients deemed “at risk” by the screening process had an average of 7 violent incidents during a six-month follow-up period. The characteristics of these patients are described, and implications of the screening tool for conducting future research, targeting individuals for more intensive treatment services, and developing violence-focused treatment programs are discussed

The role of Gray’s revised RST in the P–psychopathy continuum: the relationships of Psychoticism with a lack of fear and anxiety, and increased impulsivity

Gray's revised Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory (rRST; Gray & McNaughton, 2000) may play a role in explaining deficits in Psychoticism (P) and psychopathy (Corr, 2010). In this paper, we examine the relationships of P with anxiety, fear, impulsivity and reward reactivity in normal populations to assess whether these associations mirror the hypothesized role of RST motivations in psychopathy. Two hundred and twelve participants completed measures of Psychoticism, impulsivity and rRST motivations (BIS-anxiety, FFFS-fear and BAS). BIS-anxiety mediated the association of P with FFFS-fear and BAS-fun seeking. An exploratory factor analysis distinguished between trait impulsivity (P, impulsivity and BIS) and reward reactivity (BAS-reward responsiveness and BAS-drive). Subsequent moderation analyses showed that whilst neither BIS nor BAS moderated the P-impulsivity link, the association between P and impulsivity was more pronounced in individuals with raised levels of FFFS-fear. Findings are discussed in terms of the roles of fear versus anxiety and impulsivity versus reward reactivity in the P-psychopathy continuum