Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses

Quark helicity distributions in the nucleon for up, down, and strange quarks from semi--inclusive deep--inelastic scattering

Polarized deep--inelastic scattering data on longitudinally polarized hydrogen and deuterium targets have been used to determine double spin asymmetries of cross sections. Inclusive and semi--inclusive asymmetries for the production of positive and negative pions from hydrogen were obtained in a re--analysis of previously published data. Inclusive and semi--inclusive asymmetries for the production of negative and positive pions and kaons were measured on a polarized deuterium target. The separate helicity densities for the up and down quarks and the anti--up, anti--down, and strange sea quarks were computed from these asymmetries in a ``leading order'' QCD analysis. The polarization of the up--quark is positive and that of the down--quark is negative. All extracted sea quark polarizations are consistent with zero, and the light quark sea helicity densities are flavor symmetric within the experimental uncertainties. First and second moments of the extracted quark helicity densities in the measured range are consistent with fits of inclusive data

Evidence for a narrow |S|=1 baryon state at a mass of 1528 MeV in quasi-real photoproduction

Evidence for a narrow baryon state is found in quasi-real photoproduction on a deuterium target through the decay channel p K^0_S --> p pi^+ pi^-. A peak is observed in the p K^0_S invariant mass spectrum at 1528 +/- 2.6 (stat) +/-2.1 (syst) MeV. Depending on the background model,the naive statistical significance of the peak is 4--6 standard deviations and its width may be somewhat larger than the experimental resolution of sigma=4.3 -- 6.2 MeV. This state may be interpreted as the predicted S=+1 exotic Theta^{+}(uuddbar(s)) pentaquark baryon. No signal for an hypothetical Theta^{++} baryon was observed in the pK^+ invariant mass distribution. The absence of such a signal indicates that an isotensor Theta is excluded and an isovector Theta is unlikely.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Impact of index hopping and bias towards the reference allele on accuracy of genotype calls from low-coverage sequencing

Abstract Background Inherent sources of error and bias that affect the quality of sequence data include index hopping and bias towards the reference allele. The impact of these artefacts is likely greater for low-coverage data than for high-coverage data because low-coverage data has scant information and many standard tools for processing sequence data were designed for high-coverage data. With the proliferation of cost-effective low-coverage sequencing, there is a need to understand the impact of these errors and bias on resulting genotype calls from low-coverage sequencing. Results We used a dataset of 26 pigs sequenced both at 2× with multiplexing and at 30× without multiplexing to show that index hopping and bias towards the reference allele due to alignment had little impact on genotype calls. However, pruning of alternative haplotypes supported by a number of reads below a predefined threshold, which is a default and desired step of some variant callers for removing potential sequencing errors in high-coverage data, introduced an unexpected bias towards the reference allele when applied to low-coverage sequence data. This bias reduced best-guess genotype concordance of low-coverage sequence data by 19.0 absolute percentage points. Conclusions We propose a simple pipeline to correct the preferential bias towards the reference allele that can occur during variant discovery and we recommend that users of low-coverage sequence data be wary of unexpected biases that may be produced by bioinformatic tools that were designed for high-coverage sequence data

Decolonisation of MRSA, S. aureus and E. coli by Cold-Atmospheric Plasma Using a Porcine Skin Model In Vitro

In the last twenty years new antibacterial agents approved by the U.S. FDA decreased whereas in parallel the resistance situation of multi-resistant bacteria increased. Thus, community and nosocomial acquired infections of resistant bacteria led to a decrease in the efficacy of standard therapy, prolonging treatment time and increasing healthcare costs. Therefore, the aim of this work was to demonstrate the applicability of cold atmospheric plasma for decolonisation of Gram-positive (Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), Methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus) and Gram-negative bacteria (E. coli) using an ex vivo pig skin model. Freshly excised skin samples were taken from six month old female pigs (breed: Pietrain). After application of pure bacteria on the surface of the explants these were treated with cold atmospheric plasma for up to 15 min. Two different plasma devices were evaluated. A decolonisation efficacy of 3 log10 steps was achieved already after 6 min of plasma treatment. Longer plasma treatment times achieved a killing rate of 5 log10 steps independently from the applied bacteria strains. Histological evaluations of untreated and treated skin areas upon cold atmospheric plasma treatment within 24 h showed no morphological changes as well as no significant degree of necrosis or apoptosis determined by the TUNEL-assay indicating that the porcine skin is still vital. This study demonstrates for the first time that cold atmospheric plasma is able to very efficiently kill bacteria applied to an intact skin surface using an ex vivo porcine skin model. The results emphasize the potential of cold atmospheric plasma as a new possible treatment option for decolonisation of human skin from bacteria in patients in the future without harming the surrounding tissue

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Effectiveness of a computer assisted learning (CAL) package to raise awareness of autism

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Promoting awareness of autism in populations who work with children may result in an earlier diagnosis of the condition. In this study, a computer assisted learning (CAL) package, containing educationally appropriate knowledge about autism was developed; and the effectiveness of this CAL package was evaluated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The CAL package was developed using computer software, "Xerte" and "Flash Macromedia". The effectiveness of the CAL package was evaluated in 32 childcare students in the UK, who were randomised to watch the CAL package or to read the information leaflet containing the same information (n = 16 in each group). Retention performance, level of enjoyment, and level of confidence to identify a child with autism, after the interventions, were evaluated. The data obtained from two studied groups was analysed using unpaired Student's t-test, 95% confidence interval, and effect size.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Students who watched the CAL package had superior retention performance percentage scores (p = 0.02, 95% CI = 0.83–12.19, effect size = 0.8) and level of enjoyment (p = 0.04, 95% CI = 0.03–2.75, effect size = 0.7) compared with students who read the information leaflet. However, there was no significant difference in level of confidence to identify a child with autism (p = 0.39, 95% CI = -1.80–0.72, effect size = -0.3).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The CAL package developed was an effective method of educating people who work with children about autism.</p

Noise and Robustness in Phyllotaxis

A striking feature of vascular plants is the regular arrangement of lateral organs on the stem, known as phyllotaxis. The most common phyllotactic patterns can be described using spirals, numbers from the Fibonacci sequence and the golden angle. This rich mathematical structure, along with the experimental reproduction of phyllotactic spirals in physical systems, has led to a view of phyllotaxis focusing on regularity. However all organisms are affected by natural stochastic variability, raising questions about the effect of this variability on phyllotaxis and the achievement of such regular patterns. Here we address these questions theoretically using a dynamical system of interacting sources of inhibitory field. Previous work has shown that phyllotaxis can emerge deterministically from the self-organization of such sources and that inhibition is primarily mediated by the depletion of the plant hormone auxin through polarized transport. We incorporated stochasticity in the model and found three main classes of defects in spiral phyllotaxis – the reversal of the handedness of spirals, the concomitant initiation of organs and the occurrence of distichous angles – and we investigated whether a secondary inhibitory field filters out defects. Our results are consistent with available experimental data and yield a prediction of the main source of stochasticity during organogenesis. Our model can be related to cellular parameters and thus provides a framework for the analysis of phyllotactic mutants at both cellular and tissular levels. We propose that secondary fields associated with organogenesis, such as other biochemical signals or mechanical forces, are important for the robustness of phyllotaxis. More generally, our work sheds light on how a target pattern can be achieved within a noisy background

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

The Moral Duty of Self-Preservation

UIDB/00183/2020 UIDP/00183/2020This chapter provides an in-depth examination of Kant’s view of suicide. After a contextualization of Kant’s prohibition of suicide (§2.1), seven different arguments against the moral permissibility of suicide are identified: three from the Lectures on Ethics (§2.2) and four from the published writings (§2.3). Each argument is presented (with possible variations) and explained. Strengths and flaws are pointed out, and possible objections and counter-objections are discussed, taking into consideration the abundant bibliography on the subject. The conclusion is that, against a recent trend in secondary literature, which tends to read Kant as justifying not only a right, but even a duty to suicide, Kant does not allow for any exception to his strict prohibition of suicide.authorsversionpublishe