Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Higher accuracy analytical approximations to nonlinear oscillators with discontinuity by energy balance method

A modified energy balance method (EBM) has been presented to obtain higher-order approximate periodic solutions from the integral expression (i.e., first order differential equation) of some nonlinear oscillators. It has been shown that the method is more effective than the classical EBM as well as some recently developed approaches such as homotopy perturbation method, harmonic balance method and iterative method. Keywords: Energy balance method, Perturbation method, Nonlinear oscillators, Constant force oscillato

DEMAND, SUPPLY AND REASONS FOR PRICE HIKE OF POTATO IN BANGLADESH

The objective of the study is to find out the factors behind the supply, demand and thereby prices of potato and explore the existence of syndicate in the market. The study is mainly based on secondary data. Additionally, some qualitative data were collected through FGD and KII from Bogura, Rangpur and Munshiganj areas. The area, production and yield of potato grew by 4.58%, 6.61% and 1.95%, respectively per annum since independence. The production of HYV potato rose sharply, while local one rose at a slower pace. Potato production exhibits high fluctuation with roughly three years’ cycle, which sharply decreased in the recent past. The nominal prices of potato witnessed upward trend, while real prices experienced downward trend since independence. There exists wide seasonal price variation of potato with the lowest price in March and the highest in December. Potato market seemingly integrated as prices at all levels move together. The rising trend of potato prices seems to be halted after re-fixing prices by DAM. Real prices displayed wide price variation as volatility index stands at 73.16%. The total surplus of potatoes in 2020 stands at 3.40 lakh MT which is much lower than the previous years. The profit earned by the potato growers was estimated at around Tk. 1.1 million /ha. The estimated DRC implies that Bangladesh had comparative advantage in potato production for export promotion. In 2020, 73% capacity of 392 cold storages in operation is utilized. It is concluded that main cause of the price hike was the artificial crisis created by some profit seeking traders rather than the low production and higher consumption of potato in the country. Fixation of price, regular market monitoring and taking legal action to the artificial crisis creators may be the way of avoiding unexpected price hike of potato in the country

New vaccine adoption: qualitative study of national decision-making processes in seven low- and middle-income countries.

As more new and improved vaccines become available, decisions on which to adopt into routine programmes become more frequent and complex. This qualitative study aimed to explore processes of national decision-making around new vaccine adoption and to understand the factors affecting these decisions. Ninety-five key informant interviews were conducted in seven low- and middle-income countries: Bangladesh, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Kenya, Mali and South Africa. Framework analysis was used to explore issues both within and between countries. The underlying driver for adoption decisions in GAVI-eligible countries was the desire to seize GAVI windows of opportunity for funding. By contrast, in South Africa and Guatemala, non-GAVI-eligible countries, the decision-making process was more rooted in internal and political dynamics. Decisions to adopt new vaccines are, by nature, political. The main drivers influencing decisions were the availability of funding, political prioritization of vaccination or the vaccine-preventable disease and the burden of disease. Other factors, such as financial sustainability and feasibility of introduction, were not as influential. Although GAVI procedures have established more formality in decision-making, they did not always result in consideration of all relevant factors. As familiarity with GAVI procedures increased, questioning by decision-makers about whether a country should apply for funding appeared to have diminished. This is one of the first studies to empirically investigate national processes of new vaccine adoption decision-making using rigorous methods. Our findings show that previous decision-making frameworks (developed to guide or study national decision-making) bore little resemblance to real-life decisions, which were dominated by domestic politics. Understanding the realities of vaccine policy decision-making is critical for developing strategies to encourage improved evidence-informed decision-making about new vaccine adoptions. The potential for international initiatives to encourage evidence-informed decision-making should be realised, not assumed

<span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height: 115%;font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; color:black;mso-ansi-language:EN-IN;mso-fareast-language:EN-IN;mso-bidi-language: HI" lang="EN-IN">Measurement of <i>(n,</i>2<i>n) </i>reaction cross-sections on isotopes of zinc, germanium and scandium in neutron energy range 13.82-14.71MeV </span>

533-538<span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height: 115%;font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-fareast-font-family:"times="" roman";="" color:black;mso-ansi-language:en-in;mso-fareast-language:en-in;mso-bidi-language:="" hi"="" lang="EN-IN">The cross-sections for the reactions 64Zn(n,2n)63Zn, 76Ge(n,2n)75m+gGe and 45Sc(n ,2n)44mSc <span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family: " times="" new="" roman";mso-fareast-font-family:"times="" roman";color:black;="" mso-ansi-language:en-in;mso-fareast-language:en-in;mso-bidi-language:hi"="" lang="EN-IN">were measured in the energy range 13.82- 14.71 MeV. The activation technique was used in combination with high resolution HPGe detector gamma- ray spectroscopy. Neutrons were produced via D-T reaction at J-25 neutron generator of the Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology, AERE, Dhaka, Bangladesh. The neutron flux at each energy was determined using monitor reaction 27Al(n,α)24Na. The nuclear model calculations using the computer codes SINCROS- II and EXIFON were undertaken to describe the excitation functions of the investigated reactions.</span

Excitation functions of (n,p) and (n,α) reactions on the isotopes of vanadium and cobalt in the neutron energy range of 13.57-14.71 MeV

487-490The excitation functions of the reactions 51V(n ,α)48Sc, 59Co(n ,α)56Mn and 59Co(n ,p)59Fe have been measured by activation technique using high resolution HPGetector γ-ray spectroscopy. Monoenergetic neutrons were produced via D-T reaction at J-25 neutron generator facility of the Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology, AERE, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Monitor Reaction 27Al(n, α)24 Na was used to determine neutron flux at different energy position in the range 13.57-14.71 MeV. The measured cross section values along with the literature data have been plotted as a function of neutron energy to get the excitation functions of the reactions. Model calculations using statistical code SINCROS-II was performed to validate the experimental data theoretically

Groundwater Quality of Some Parts of Coastal Bhola District, Bangladesh: Exceptional Evidence

The composition of groundwater governs the drinking and irrigation water suitability. A large part of the coastal region of Bangladesh is affected and is responsible for changing the composition of the groundwater. This research attempted to observe the groundwater quality of the Bhola Sadar and Char Fasson upazilas in coastal Bangladesh. Twenty-eight (28) water samples, 27 at depths of 260–430 m (850–1400 ft) and 1 from a crop field, were collected and analyzed. The quality of water samples was determined through the evaluation of odor, color, turbidity, electrical conductivity, pH, total dissolved solids, nitrate (NO3−), ammonium (NH4+), sodium (Na), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn) and arsenic (As) ions. An Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer was used for heavy metal analysis. The outcomes were compared with the drinking water quality of Bangladesh and the World Health Organization. The results showed that the average values of nearly all of the parameters were underneath or within the standard level, representing that the groundwater was appropriate for drinking purposes. The water quality parameters were also compared with the irrigation water quality of Bangladesh and the Food and Agriculture Organization. It was found that the collected samples were also suitable for irrigation. To do this, the soluble sodium percentage, sodium adsorption ratio, magnesium adsorption ratio, Kelley’s ratio, and total hardness were calculated. The novelty of this research is that, despite being in a coastal district, the deep aquifer water of Bhola was appropriate for drinking and irrigation purposes

Groundwater Quality of Some Parts of Coastal Bhola District, Bangladesh: Exceptional Evidence

Peer reviewed: TrueFunder: authority of Jashore University of Science and TechnologyThe composition of groundwater governs the drinking and irrigation water suitability. A large part of the coastal region of Bangladesh is affected and is responsible for changing the composition of the groundwater. This research attempted to observe the groundwater quality of the Bhola Sadar and Char Fasson upazilas in coastal Bangladesh. Twenty-eight (28) water samples, 27 at depths of 260–430 m (850–1400 ft) and 1 from a crop field, were collected and analyzed. The quality of water samples was determined through the evaluation of odor, color, turbidity, electrical conductivity, pH, total dissolved solids, nitrate (NO3−), ammonium (NH4+), sodium (Na), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn) and arsenic (As) ions. An Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer was used for heavy metal analysis. The outcomes were compared with the drinking water quality of Bangladesh and the World Health Organization. The results showed that the average values of nearly all of the parameters were underneath or within the standard level, representing that the groundwater was appropriate for drinking purposes. The water quality parameters were also compared with the irrigation water quality of Bangladesh and the Food and Agriculture Organization. It was found that the collected samples were also suitable for irrigation. To do this, the soluble sodium percentage, sodium adsorption ratio, magnesium adsorption ratio, Kelley’s ratio, and total hardness were calculated. The novelty of this research is that, despite being in a coastal district, the deep aquifer water of Bhola was appropriate for drinking and irrigation purposes.</jats:p