Land Use / Land Cover Change And Impact On Carbon Stocks In The Atacora Chain Of Mountains, A Biodiversity Hotspot In Benin (West Africa)

Mountain areas are fragile ecosystems that play important roles in people’s livelihoods and maintenance of the global ecosystem through the provision of many ecosystem services. Land use/cover (LULC) change is considered one of the major threats to mountain areas due to its effects on ecosystem services including carbon stocks. In this study we assessed LULC change between 1987 and 2015 and its impact on aboveground carbon stocks in the Atacora Chain of Mountains (ACM) in Benin, West Africa. Supervised classification was performed to delineate LULC classes on three dates (1987, 2001 and 2015), and forest measurements carried out in the land cover classes, to estimate the aboveground biomass and the subsequent carbon stocks. Seven land cover classes were delineated: gallery forests, woodlands, savanna, water, settlements, bare lands and farm lands. LULC changes were characterized by three transitions: 1) the change of man-made land cover into savanna, 2) the change of natural vegetation into man-made land cover and 3) the degradation of gallery forests and woodland into less wooded vegetation. The aboveground carbon stock in gallery forests, woodland and tree savanna were significantly greater than in shrub savanna. During the 28 years of assessment, LULC change in gallery forests, woodland and savanna caused an estimated overall aboveground carbon release of 17.10% in the ACM. From the aboveground carbon quantity in the ACM, it appeared that this ecosystem is a potential carbon reservoir. Because the aboveground carbon stock in shrub savanna is significantly lower as compared to gallery forests, woodland and tree savanna and the rates of degradation from gallery forests and woodland to savanna are high, 53.62% and 59.99% respectively in 28 years, LULC change may undermine the ACM ability to store carbon and contribute to climate change mitigation. There is a need to investigate the drivers of this degradation for actions to preserve the natural vegetation in the ACM. Keywords: Atacora Chain of Mountains; Land use/land cover (LULC); Benin; West Africa; Carbon stock DOI: 10.7176/JEES/10-6-13 Publication date:June 30th 202

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Renouncing to Universal Access to Antiretroviral Treatment for HIV in Africa: A Micro-Simulation Model

AIM: Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries. METHODS: We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15-49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an "artificial" ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy. RESULTS: Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm(3) CD4 cell counts. CONCLUSION: Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to "legitimate" short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice

Seed Regeneration Potential of Canopy Gaps at Early Formation Stage in Temperate Secondary Forests, Northeast China

Promoting the seed regeneration potential of secondary forests undergoing gap disturbances is an important approach for achieving forest restoration and sustainable management. Seedling recruitment from seed banks strongly determines the seed regeneration potential, but the process is poorly understood in the gaps of secondary forests. The objectives of the present study were to evaluate the effects of gap size, seed availability, and environmental conditions on the seed regeneration potential in temperate secondary forests. It was found that gap formation could favor the invasion of more varieties of species in seed banks, but it also could speed up the turnover rate of seed banks leading to lower seed densities. Seeds of the dominant species, Fraxinus rhynchophylla, were transient in soil and there was a minor and discontinuous contribution of the seed bank to its seedling emergence. For Quercus mongolica, emerging seedling number was positively correlated with seed density in gaps (R = 0.32, P<0.01), especially in medium and small gaps (<500 m2). Furthermore, under canopies, there was a positive correlation between seedling number and seed density of Acer mono (R = 0.43, P<0.01). Gap formation could promote seedling emergence of two gap-dependent species (i.e., Q. mongolica and A. mono), but the contribution of seed banks to seedlings was below 10% after gap creation. Soil moisture and temperature were the restrictive factors controlling the seedling emergence from seeds in gaps and under canopies, respectively. Thus, the regeneration potential from seed banks is limited after gap formation

The physiological responses of cacao to the environment and the implications for climate change resilience. A review

Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) is a tropical perennial crop which is of great economic importance to the confectionary industry and to the economies of many countries of the humid tropics where it is grown. Some recent studies have suggested climate change could severely impact cacao production in West Africa. It is essential to incorporate our understanding of the physiology and genetic variation within cacao germplasm when discussing the implications of climate change on cacao productivity and developing strategies for climate resilience in cacao production. Here we review the current research on the physiological responses of cacao to various climate factors. Our main findings are 1) water limitation causes significant yield reduction in cacao but genotypic variation in sensitivity is evident, 2) in the field cacao experiences higher temperatures than is often reported in the literature, 3) the complexity of the cacao/ shade tree interaction can lead to contradictory results, 4) elevated CO2 may alleviate some negative effects of climate change 5) implementation of mitigation strategies can help reduce environmental stress, 6) significant gaps in the research need addressing to accelerate the development of climate resilience. Harnessing the significant genetic variation apparent within cacao germplasm is essential to develop modern varieties capable of high yields in non-optimal conditions. Mitigation strategies will also be essential but to use shading to best effect shade tree selection is crucial to avoid resource competition. Cacao is often described as being sensitive to climate change but genetic variation, adaptive responses, appropriate mitigation strategies and interactive climate effects should all be considered when predicting the future of cacao production. Incorporating these physiological responses to various environmental conditions and developing a deeper understanding of the processes underlying these responses will help to accelerate the development of a more resource use efficient tree ensuring sustainable production into the future

Global economic burden of unmet surgical need for appendicitis

Background: There is a substantial gap in provision of adequate surgical care in many low-and middle-income countries. This study aimed to identify the economic burden of unmet surgical need for the common condition of appendicitis. Methods: Data on the incidence of appendicitis from 170 countries and two different approaches were used to estimate numbers of patients who do not receive surgery: as a fixed proportion of the total unmet surgical need per country (approach 1); and based on country income status (approach 2). Indirect costs with current levels of access and local quality, and those if quality were at the standards of high-income countries, were estimated. A human capital approach was applied, focusing on the economic burden resulting from premature death and absenteeism. Results: Excess mortality was 4185 per 100 000 cases of appendicitis using approach 1 and 3448 per 100 000 using approach 2. The economic burden of continuing current levels of access and local quality was US $92 492 million using approach 1 and$73 141 million using approach 2. The economic burden of not providing surgical care to the standards of high-income countries was $95 004 million using approach 1 and$75 666 million using approach 2. The largest share of these costs resulted from premature death (97.7 per cent) and lack of access (97.0 per cent) in contrast to lack of quality. Conclusion: For a comparatively non-complex emergency condition such as appendicitis, increasing access to care should be prioritized. Although improving quality of care should not be neglected, increasing provision of care at current standards could reduce societal costs substantially

Mixed-forest species establishment in a monodominant forest in Central Africa: Implications for tropical forest invasibility

Background: Traits of non-dominant mixed-forest tree species and their synergies for successful co-occurrence in monodominant Gilbertiodendron dewevrei forest have not yet been investigated. Here we compared the tree species diversity of the monodominant forest with its adjacent mixed forest and then determined which fitness proxies and life history traits of the mixed-forest tree species were most associated with successful co-existence in the monodominant forest. Methodology/Principal Findings: We sampled all trees (diameter in breast height [dbh]≥10 cm) within 6x1 ha topographically homogenous areas of intact central African forest in SE Cameroon, three independent patches of G. dewevrei-dominated forest and three adjacent areas (450-800 m apart). Monodominant G. dewevrei forest had lower sample-controlled species richness, species density and population density than its adjacent mixed forest in terms of stems with dbh≥10 cm. Analysis of a suite of population-level characteristics, such as relative abundance and geographical distribution, and traits such as wood density, height, diameter at breast height, fruit/seed dispersal mechanism and light requirement-revealed after controlling for phylogeny, species that co-occur with G. dewevrei tend to have higher abundance in adjacent mixed forest, higher wood density and a lower light requirement. Conclusions/Significance: Our results suggest that certain traits (wood density and light requirement) and population-level characteristics (relative abundance) may increase the invasibility of a tree species into a tropical closed-canopy system. Such knowledge may assist in the pre-emptive identification of invasive tree species. © 2014 Peh et al

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Seed size influence on germination responses to light and temperature of seven pioneer tree species from the Central Amazon

In Amazon secondary forests are dominated by pioneer species that typically produce large amounts of small and dormant seeds that are able to form a persistent soil seed bank. Seed dormancy in this group of species is overcome by environmental conditions found in open areas, such as high irradiation or alternating temperatures. Nevertheless, a variety of germination responses to environmental factors is known among pioneers; some of them may germinate in diffuse light or in darkness condition at constant temperature. Seed mass can be considered as one of the factors that promotes this variety. Regarding species with very small seeds, it seems that the trigger for germination is light and for larger seeds temperature alternation may be a more important stimulus. In this study we established a relationship between seed mass and germination response to light and alternating temperature for a group of seven woody pioneer species from the Amazon forest. We found that an increase in seed mass was followed by a decrease in the need for light and an increase in the tolerance to alternating temperatures. Understanding germination strategies may contribute with the knowledge of species coexistence in high diverse environments and also may assist those involved in forest management and restoration.Na Amazônia as florestas secundárias são dominadas por espécies pioneiras que, normalmente, produzem grandes quantidades de sementes pequenas, dormentes e capazes de formar bancos de sementes no solo. A dormência neste grupo de espécies é superada pelas condições ambientais de áreas abertas, como alta irradiação ou alternância de temperaturas. No entanto, uma variedade de respostas de germinação aos fatores ambientais é conhecida entre as pioneiras; algumas germinam em luz difusa ou no escuro sob temperatura constante. Um dos fatores promotores desta variedade é a massa das sementes. Parece que para as espécies com sementes muito pequenas, o estímulo para que ocorra germinação é a luz e, para sementes maiores, a alternância de temperatura pode ser um estímulo mais importante. Neste estudo, estabeleceu-se uma relação entre a massa das sementes e a resposta de germinação à luz e temperatura para sete espécies pioneiras arbóreas da floresta amazônica. Descobrimos que o aumento na massa da semente foi acompanhado por diminuição da necessidade por luz e aumento da tolerância à alternância de temperatura. Compreender estratégias de germinação pode contribuir para os conhecimentos sobre a coexistência de espécies em ambientes altamente diversos e também pode ajudar aos pesquisadores envolvidos no manejo e restauração florestal

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication