Calculating partial expected value of perfect information via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms

Partial expected value of perfect information (EVPI) calculations can quantify the value of learning about particular subsets of uncertain parameters in decision models. Published case studies have used different computational approaches. This article examines the computation of partial EVPI estimates via Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. The mathematical definition shows 2 nested expectations, which must be evaluated separately because of the need to compute a maximum between them. A generalized Monte Carlo sampling algorithm uses nested simulation with an outer loop to sample parameters of interest and, conditional upon these, an inner loop to sample remaining uncertain parameters. Alternative computation methods and shortcut algorithms are discussed and mathematical conditions for their use considered. Maxima of Monte Carlo estimates of expectations are biased upward, and the authors show that the use of small samples results in biased EVPI estimates. Three case studies illustrate 1) the bias due to maximization and also the inaccuracy of shortcut algorithms 2) when correlated variables are present and 3) when there is nonlinearity in net benefit functions. If relatively small correlation or nonlinearity is present, then the shortcut algorithm can be substantially inaccurate. Empirical investigation of the numbers of Monte Carlo samples suggests that fewer samples on the outer level and more on the inner level could be efficient and that relatively small numbers of samples can sometimes be used. Several remaining areas for methodological development are set out. A wider application of partial EVPI is recommended both for greater understanding of decision uncertainty and for analyzing research priorities

Fast flowing populations are not well mixed

In evolutionary dynamics, well-mixed populations are almost always associated with all-to-all interactions; mathematical models are based on complete graphs. In most cases, these models do not predict fixation probabilities in groups of individuals mixed by flows. We propose an analytical description in the fast-flow limit. This approach is valid for processes with global and local selection, and accurately predicts the suppression of selection as competition becomes more local. It provides a modelling tool for biological or social systems with individuals in motion.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figure

Transnational strategy on the sustainable management and responsible use of non-native trees in the Alpine Space

Abstract Non-native tree species – defined as those species intentionally or unintentionally introduced by humans – have long been a part of the Alpine Space, providing numerous benefits, but also posing a potential threat to native biodiversity and related ecosystem services. Compared to the urban space where non-native trees comprise most tree species, the number of non-native trees in forests and plantations is relatively low. To evaluate potential risks and benefits of non-native trees in the Alpine Space, a transnational strategy for the responsible use and management of non-native trees is needed. The goals of the strategy are to tailor management practices for a sustainable and responsible use or admixture of non-native trees, to reduce the risks connected with the invasive potential of some non-native tree species, to help forests and urban areas to adapt to climate change, and to improve coordination and cooperation regarding best practices between different regions of the Alpine Space. A proposal was developed in a four-step process including expert-based assessment, stakeholder mapping, an extensive data review, and a public consultation. For implementing the strategy fully, strong collaboration among diverse stakeholders is anticipated and robust governance and an adequate long-term and fair funding scheme is needed

Hadron Energy Reconstruction for the ATLAS Calorimetry in the Framework of the Non-parametrical Method

This paper discusses hadron energy reconstruction for the ATLAS barrel prototype combined calorimeter (consisting of a lead-liquid argon electromagnetic part and an iron-scintillator hadronic part) in the framework of the non-parametrical method. The non-parametrical method utilizes only the known $e/h$ ratios and the electron calibration constants and does not require the determination of any parameters by a minimization technique. Thus, this technique lends itself to an easy use in a first level trigger. The reconstructed mean values of the hadron energies are within $\pm 1$ of the true values and the fractional energy resolution is $[(58\pm3)/\sqrt{E}+(2.5\pm0.3)$. The value of the $e/h$ ratio obtained for the electromagnetic compartment of the combined calorimeter is $1.74\pm0.04$ and agrees with the prediction that $e/h > 1.7$ for this electromagnetic calorimeter. Results of a study of the longitudinal hadronic shower development are also presented. The data have been taken in the H8 beam line of the CERN SPS using pions of energies from 10 to 300 GeV.Comment: 33 pages, 13 figures, Will be published in NIM

Standalone vertex finding in the ATLAS muon spectrometer

A dedicated reconstruction algorithm to find decay vertices in the ATLAS muon spectrometer is presented. The algorithm searches the region just upstream of or inside the muon spectrometer volume for multi-particle vertices that originate from the decay of particles with long decay paths. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated using both a sample of simulated Higgs boson events, in which the Higgs boson decays to long-lived neutral particles that in turn decay to bbar b final states, and pp collision data at √s = 7 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the LHC during 2011

Measurements of Higgs boson production and couplings in diboson final states with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Measurements are presented of production properties and couplings of the recently discovered Higgs boson using the decays into boson pairs, H →γ γ, H → Z Z∗ →4l and H →W W∗ →lνlν. The results are based on the complete pp collision data sample recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider at centre-of-mass energies of √s = 7 TeV and √s = 8 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 25 fb−1. Evidence for Higgs boson production through vector-boson fusion is reported. Results of combined fits probing Higgs boson couplings to fermions and bosons, as well as anomalous contributions to loop-induced production and decay modes, are presented. All measurements are consistent with expectations for the Standard Model Higgs boson

Measurement of the top quark pair cross section with ATLAS in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV using final states with an electron or a muon and a hadronically decaying τ lepton

A measurement of the cross section of top quark pair production in proton-proton collisions recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV is reported. The data sample used corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 2.05 fb -1. Events with an isolated electron or muon and a τ lepton decaying hadronically are used. In addition, a large missing transverse momentum and two or more energetic jets are required. At least one of the jets must be identified as originating from a b quark. The measured cross section, σtt-=186±13(stat.)±20(syst.)±7(lumi.) pb, is in good agreement with the Standard Model prediction

Measurement of the top quark-pair production cross section with ATLAS in pp collisions at \sqrt{s}=7\TeV

A measurement of the production cross-section for top quark pairs(\ttbar) in $pp$ collisions at \sqrt{s}=7 \TeV is presented using data recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events are selected in two different topologies: single lepton (electron $e$ or muon $\mu$) with large missing transverse energy and at least four jets, and dilepton ($ee$, $\mu\mu$ or $e\mu$) with large missing transverse energy and at least two jets. In a data sample of 2.9 pb-1, 37 candidate events are observed in the single-lepton topology and 9 events in the dilepton topology. The corresponding expected backgrounds from non-\ttbar Standard Model processes are estimated using data-driven methods and determined to be $12.2 \pm 3.9$ events and $2.5 \pm 0.6$ events, respectively. The kinematic properties of the selected events are consistent with SM \ttbar production. The inclusive top quark pair production cross-section is measured to be \sigmattbar=145 \pm 31 ^{+42}_{-27} pb where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The measurement agrees with perturbative QCD calculations.Comment: 30 pages plus author list (50 pages total), 9 figures, 11 tables, CERN-PH number and final journal adde

Measurement of the production cross section for W-bosons in association with jets in pp collisions at s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This Letter reports on a first measurement of the inclusive W + jets cross section in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV at the LHC, with the ATLAS detector. Cross sections, in both the electron and muon decay modes of the W-boson, are presented as a function of jet multiplicity and of the transverse momentum of the leading and next-to-leading jets in the event. Measurements are also presented of the ratio of cross sections sigma (W + >= n)/sigma(W + >= n - 1) for inclusive jet multiplicities n = 1-4. The results, based on an integrated luminosity of 1.3 pb(-1), have been corrected for all known detector effects and are quoted in a limited and well-defined range of jet and lepton kinematics. The measured cross sections are compared to particle-level predictions based on perturbative QCD. Next-to-leading order calculations, studied here for n <= 2, are found in good agreement with the data. Leading-order multiparton event generators, normalized to the NNLO total cross section, describe the data well for all measured jet multiplicitie