42 research outputs found

    Intelligent Diagnosis and Smart Detection of Crack in a Structure from its Vibration Signatures

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    In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the development of structural health monitoring for vibrating structures, especially crack detection methodologies and on-line diagnostic techniques. In the current research, methodologies have been developed for damage detection of a cracked cantilever beam using analytical, fuzzy logic, neural network and fuzzy neuro techniques. The presence of a crack in a structural member introduces a local flexibility that affects its dynamic response. For finding out the deviation in the vibrating signatures of the cracked cantilever beam the local stiffness matrices are taken into account. Theoretical analyses have been carried out to calculate the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the cracked cantilever beam using local stiffness matrices. Strain energy release rate has been used for calculating the local stiffness of the beam. The fuzzy inference system has been designed using the first three relative natural frequencies and mode shapes as input parameters. The output from the fuzzy controller is relative crack location and relative crack depth. Several fuzzy rules have been developed using the vibration signatures of the cantilever beam. A Neural Network technique using multi layered back propagation algorithm has been developed for damage assessment using the first three relative natural frequencies and mode shapes as input parameters and relative crack location and relative crack depth as output parameters. Several training patterns are derived for designing the Neural Network. A hybrid fuzzy-neuro intelligent system has been formulated for fault identification. The fuzzy controller is designed with six input parameters and two output parameters. The input parameters to the fuzzy system are relative deviation of first three natural frequencies and first three mode shapes. The output parameters of the fuzzy system are initial relative crack depth and initial relative crack location. The input parameters to the neural controller are relative deviation of first three natural frequencies and first three mode shapes along with the interim outputs of fuzzy controller. The output parameters of the fuzzy-neuro system are final relative crack depth and final relative crack location. A series of fuzzy rules and training patterns are derived for the fuzzy and neural system respectively to predict the final crack location and final crack depth.To diagnose the crack in the vibrating structure multiple adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (MANFIS) methodology has been applied. The final outputs of the MANFIS are relative crack depth and relative crack location. Several hundred fuzzy rules and neural network training patterns are derived using natural frequencies, mode shapes, crack depths and crack locations. The proposed research work aims to broaden the development in the area of fault detection of dynamically vibrating structures. This research also addresses the accuracy for detection of crack location and depth with considerably low computational time. The objective of the research is related to design of an intelligent controller for prediction of damage location and severity in a uniform cracked cantilever beam using AI techniques (i.e. Fuzzy, neural, adaptive neuro-fuzzy and Manfis)

    Comparison of CFBP, FFBP, and RBF Networks in the Field of Crack Detection

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    The issue of crack detection and its diagnosis has gained a wide spread of industrial interest. The crack/damage affects the industrial economic growth. So early crack detection is an important aspect in the point of view of any industrial growth. In this paper a design tool ANSYS is used to monitor various changes in vibrational characteristics of thin transverse cracks on a cantilever beam for detecting the crack position and depth and was compared using artificial intelligence techniques. The usage of neural networks is the key point of development in this paper. The three neural networks used are cascade forward back propagation (CFBP) network, feed forward back propagation (FFBP) network, and radial basis function (RBF) network. In the first phase of this paper theoretical analysis has been made and then the finite element analysis has been carried out using commercial software, ANSYS. In the second phase of this paper the neural networks are trained using the values obtained from a simulated model of the actual cantilever beam using ANSYS. At the last phase a comparative study has been made between the data obtained from neural network technique and finite element analysis

    Deconfinement Transition in Large N Lattice Gauge Theory

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    We study analytically the phase diagram of the pure SU(N)SU(N) lattice gauge theory at finite temperature, and we attempt to estimate the critical deconfinement temperature. We apply large NN techniques to the Wilson and to the Heat Kernel action, and we study the resulting models both in the strong coupling and in the weak coupling limits. Using the Heat Kernel action, we establish an interesting connection between the Douglas-Kazakov phase transition of two-dimensional QCD and the deconfining transition in dd dimensions. The analytic results obtained for the critical temperature compare well with Montecarlo simulations of the full theory in (2+1)(2+1) and in (3+1)(3+1) dimensions.Comment: 39 pages (Latex) + 4 ps-figures (using EPSF), DFTT 30/9

    Some New/Old Approaches to QCD

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    This is a talk delivered at the Meeting on Integrable Quantum Field Theories, Villa Olmo and at STRINGS 1992, Rome, September 1992. I discuss some recent attempts to revive two old ideas regarding an analytic approach to QCD-the development of a string representation of the theory and the large N limit of QCD.Comment: 20 page

    Prescription practices and availability of artemisinin monotherapy in India: where do we stand?

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The World Health Organization has urged all member states to deploy artemisinin-based combination therapy and progressively withdraw oral artemisinin monotherapies from the market due to their high recrudescence rates and to reduce the risk of drug resistance. Prescription practices by physicians and the availability of oral artemisinin monotherapies with pharmacists directly affect the pattern of their use. Thus, treatment practices for malaria, with special reference to artemisinin monotherapy prescription, in selected states of India were evaluated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Structured, tested questionnaires were used to conduct convenience surveys of physicians and pharmacists in eleven purposively selected districts across six states in 2008. In addition, exit interviews of patients with a diagnosis of uncomplicated malaria or a prescription for an anti-malarial drug were also performed. Logistic regression was used to determine patient clinical care, and institutional factors associated with artemisinin monotherapy prescription.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Five hundred and eleven physicians from 196 health facilities, 530 pharmacists, and 1, 832 patients were interviewed. Artemisinin monotherapy was available in 72.6% of pharmacies and was prescribed by physicians for uncomplicated malaria in all study states. Exit interviews among patients confirmed the high rate of use of artemisinin monotherapy with 14.8% receiving such a prescription. Case management, i.e. method of diagnosis and overall treatment, varied by state and public or private sector. Treatment in the private sector (OR 8.0, 95%CI: 3.8, 17) was the strongest predictor of artemisinin monotherapy prescription when accounting for other factors. Use of the combination therapy recommended by the national drug policy, artesunate + sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, was minimal (4.9%), with the exception of one state.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Artemisinin monotherapy use was widespread across India in 2008. The accessible sale of oral artemisinin monotherapy in retail market and an inadequate supply of recommended drugs in the public sector health facilities promoted its prescription. This study resulted in notifications to all state drug controllers in India to withdraw the oral artemisinin formulations from the market. In 2010, artesunate + sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine became the universal first-line treatment for confirmed <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>malaria and was deployed at full scale.</p

    Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

    Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

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    Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

    Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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    Background Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (USMR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings Global U5MR decreased from 71.2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval WI] 68.3-74-0) in 2000 to 37.1 (33.2-41.7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28.0 deaths per 1000 live births (26.8-29-5) in 2000 to 17.9 (16.3-19-8) in 2019. In 2019,136 (67%) of 204 countries had a USMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030,154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9.65 million (95% UI 9.05-10.30) in 2000 and 5.05 million (4.27-6.02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3.76 million 95% UI 3.53-4.021) in 2000 to 48% (2.42 million; 2.06-2.86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0.80 (95% UI 0.71-0.86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1.44 (95% UI 1-27-1.58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1.87 million (95% UI 1-35-2.58; 37% 95% UI 32-43]) of 5.05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier. Interpretation Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve USMR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd
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