State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Fatigue and physical activity patterns in children with inflammatory bowel disease

Abstract: Objectives: Fatigue is a common symptom in children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Diagnostic tests to evaluate biological causes of fatigue commonly include markers of inflammation and hemoglobin (Hb), yet functional parameters have been inadequately studied in pediatric IBD. In this study, we compared fatigued and non-fatigued children with IBD from both a biological and functional point of view.Methods: A cross-sectional study of 104 pediatric IBD patients with mild to moderately active IBD was conducted. Fatigued children were defined as those with a Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory Multidimensional Fatigue Scale z score =-2.0. Disease-specific quality of life (measured with IMPACT-III score), C-reactive protein (CRP), fecal calprotectin (FC), hemoglobin z score (Hb z score), and physical activity tests including 6-minute walking distance z score (6MWD z score) and triaxial accelerometry (TA) were evaluated.Results: Fatigued children (n = 24) had a significant lower IMPACT-III score than non-fatigued children (n = 80). Hb z scores, CRP, FC, and 6MWD z scores were not significantly different between groups. TA was performed in 71 patients. Wear time validation requirements were met in only 31 patients. Fatigued patients spent significant shorter median time in moderate-to-vigorous activity than non-fatigued patients (18.3 vs 37.3 minutes per day, P = 0.008).Conclusion: Biological parameters did not discriminate fatigued from non-fatigued patients. TA possibly distinguishes fatigued from non-fatigued patients; the potential association may provide a target for interventions to combat fatigue and improve quality of life

Fatigue and physical activity patterns in children with Inflammatory Bowel Disease

OBJECTIVES: Fatigue is a common symptom in children with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Diagnostic tests to evaluate biological causes of fatigue commonly include markers of inflammation and haemoglobin (Hb), yet functional parameters have been inadequately studied in paediatric IBD. In this study we compared fatigued and non-fatigued children with IBD from both a biological and functional point of view. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 104 paediatric IBD patients with mild to moderately active IBD was conducted. Fatigued children were defined as those with a Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL TM) Multidimensional Fatigue Scale Z-score <-2.0. Non-fatigued children had a Z-score = -2.0. Disease-specific quality of life (measured with IMPACT-III score), C-reactive protein (CRP), faecal calprotectin (FC), haemoglobin Z-score (Hb Z-score) and physical activity tests including 6-minute walking distance Z-score (6MWD Z-score) and triaxial accelerometry (TA) were evaluated. RESULTS: Fatigued children (n=24) had a significant lower IMPACT-III score than non-fatigued children (n=80). Hb Z-scores, CRP, FC and 6 MWD Z-scores were not significantly different between groups. TA was performed in 71 patients. Wear time validation requirements were met in only 31 patients. Fatigued patients spent significant shorter median time in moderate-to-vigorous activity than non-fatigued patients (18.3 versus 37.3 minutes per day, P=0.008). CONCLUSION: Biological parameters did not discriminate fatigued from non-fatigued patients. TA possibly distinguishes fatigued from non-fatigued patients; the potential association may provide a target for interventions to combat fatigue and improve quality of life

Transforming knowledge systems for life on Earth : Visions of future systems and how to get there

Formalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for contemporary societies. They are, however, also arguably failing humanity when their impact is measured against the level of progress being made in stimulating the societal changes needed to address challenges like climate change. In this research we used a novel futures-oriented and participatory approach that asked what future envisioned knowledge systems might need to look like and how we might get there. Findings suggest that envisioned future systems will need to be much more collaborative, open, diverse, egalitarian, and able to work with values and systemic issues. They will also need to go beyond producing knowledge about our world to generating wisdom about how to act within it. To get to envisioned systems we will need to rapidly scale methodological innovations, connect innovators, and creatively accelerate learning about working with intractable challenges. We will also need to create new funding schemes, a global knowledge commons, and challenge deeply held assumptions. To genuinely be a creative force in supporting longevity of human and non-human life on our planet, the shift in knowledge systems will probably need to be at the scale of the enlightenment and speed of the scientific and technological revolution accompanying the second World War. This will require bold and strategic action from governments, scientists, civic society and sustained transformational intent.Peer reviewe

Transforming knowledge systems for life on Earth: Visions of future systems and how to get there

Formalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for contemporary societies. They are, however, also arguably failing humanity when their impact is measured against the level of progress being made in stimulating the societal changes needed to address challenges like climate change. In this research we used a novel futures-oriented and participatory approach that asked what future envisioned knowledge systems might need to look like and how we might get there. Findings suggest that envisioned future systems will need to be much more collaborative, open, diverse, egalitarian, and able to work with values and systemic issues. They will also need to go beyond producing knowledge about our world to generating wisdom about how to act within it. To get to envisioned systems we will need to rapidly scale methodological innovations, connect innovators, and creatively accelerate learning about working with intractable challenges. We will also need to create new funding schemes, a global knowledge commons, and challenge deeply held assumptions. To genuinely be a creative force in supporting longevity of human and non-human life on our planet, the shift in knowledge systems will probably need to be at the scale of the enlightenment and speed of the scientific and technological revolution accompanying the second World War. This will require bold and strategic action from governments, scientists, civic society and sustained transformational intent

Reasons to be cheerful? Reflections on GPs' responses to depression

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes