Quality Control in ECG-based Atrial Fibrillation Screening

This thesis comprises an introductory chapter and four papers related to quality control in ECG-based atrial fibrillation (AF) screening. Atrial fibrillation is a cardiac arrhythmia characterized by an irregular rhythm and constitutes a major risk factor for stroke. Anticoagulation therapy significantly reduces this risk, and therefore, AF screening is motivated. Atrial fibrillation screening is often done using ECGs recorded outside the clinical environment. However, the higher susceptibility of such ECGs to noise and artifacts makes the identification of patients with AF challenging. The present thesis addresses these challenges at different levels in the data analysis chain. Paper I presents a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based approach to identify transient noise and artifacts in the detected beat sequence before AF detection. The results show that by inserting a CNN, prior to the AF detector, the number of false AF detections is reduced by 22.5% without any loss in the sensitivity, suggesting that the number of recordings requiring expert review can be significantly reduced. Paper II investigates the signal quality of a novel wet electrode technology, and how the improved signal quality translates to improved beat detection and AF detection performance. The novel electrode technology is designed for reduction of motion artifacts typically present in Holter ECG recordings. The novel electrode technology shows a better signal quality and detection performance when compared to a commercially available counterpart, especially when the subject becomes more active. Thus, it has the potential to reduce the review burden and costs associated with ambulatory monitoring.Paper III introduces a detector for short-episode supraventricular tachycardia (sSVT) in AF screening recordings, which has been shown to be associated with an increased risk for future AF. Therefore, the identification of subjects with suchepisodes may increase the usefulness of AF screening. The proposed detector is based on the assumption that the beats in an sSVT episode display similar morphology, and that episodes including detections of deviating morphology should be excluded. The results show that the number of false sSVT detections can be significantly reduced (by a factor of 6) using the proposed detector.Paper IV introduces a novel ECG simulation tool, which is capable of producing ECGs with various arrhythmia patterns and with several different types of noise and artifacts. Specifically, the ECG simulator includes models to generate noise observed in ambulatory recordings, and when recording using handheld recording devices. The usefulness of the simulator is illustrated in terms of AF detection performance when the CNN training in Paper I is performed using simulated data. The results show a very similar performance when training with simulated data compared to when training with real data. Thus, the proposed simulator is a valuable tool in the development and training of automated ECG processing algorithms. Together, the four parts, in different ways, contribute to improved algorithmic efficiency in AF screening

Signal quality assessment of a novel ecg electrode for motion artifact reduction

Background: The presence of noise is problematic in the analysis and interpretation of the ECG, especially in ambulatory monitoring. Restricting the analysis to high-quality signal segments only comes with the risk of excluding significant arrhythmia episodes. Therefore, the development of novel electrode technology, robust to noise, continues to be warranted. Methods: The signal quality of a novel wet ECG electrode (Piotrode) is assessed and compared to a commercially available, commonly used electrode (Ambu). The assessment involves indices of QRS detection and atrial fibrillation detection performance, as well as signal quality indices (ensemble standard deviation and time–frequency repeatability), computed from ECGs recorded simultaneously from 20 healthy subjects performing everyday activities. Results: The QRS detection performance using the Piotrode was considerably better than when using the Ambu, especially for running but also for lighter activities. The two signal quality indices demonstrated similar trends: the gap in quality became increasingly larger as the subjects became increasingly more active. Conclusions: The novel wet ECG electrode produces signals with less motion artifacts, thereby offering the potential to reduce the review burden, and accordingly the cost, associated with ambulatory monitoring

False Alarm Reduction in Atrial Fibrillation Screening

Early detection of AF is essential and emphasizes the significance of AF screening. However, AF detection in screening ECGs, usually recorded by handheld and portable devices, is limited because of their high susceptibility to noise. In this study, the feasibility of applying a machine learning-based quality control stage, inserted between the QRS detector and AF detector blocks, is investigated with the aim to improve AF detection. A convolutional neural network was trained to classify the detections into either true or false. False detections were excluded and an updated series of QRS complexes was fed to the AF detector. The results show that the convolutional neural network-based quality control reduces the number of false alarms by 24.8% at the cost of 1.9% decrease in sensitivity compared to AF detection without any quality control

Identification of Transient Noise to Reduce False Detections in Screening for Atrial Fibrillation

Screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) with a handheld device for recording the ECG is becoming increasingly popular. The poorer signal quality of such ECGs may lead to false detection of AF, often caused by transient noise. Consequently, the need for expert review in AF screening can become extensive. A convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed for transient noise identification in AF detection. The network is trained using the events produced by a QRS detector, classified into either true beat detections or false detections. The CNN and a low-complexity AF detector are trained and tested using the StrokeStop I database, containing 30-s ECGs from mass screening for AF in the elderly population. Performance evaluation of the CNN-based quality control using a subset of the database resulted in sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 96.4, 96.9, and 96.9%, respectively. By inserting the CNN before the AF detector, the false AF detections were reduced by 22.5% without any loss in sensitivity. The results show that the number of recordings calling for expert review can be significantly reduced thanks to the identification of transient noise. The reduction of false AF detections is directly linked to the time and cost spent on expert review

ECG modeling for simulation of arrhythmias in time-varying conditions

The present paper proposes an ECG simulator that advances modeling of arrhythmias and noise by introducing time-varying signal characteristics. The simulator is built around a discrete-time Markov chain model for simulating atrial and ventricular arrhythmias of particular relevance when analyzing atrial fibrillation (AF). Each state is associated with statistical information on episode duration and heartbeat characteristics. Statistical, time-varying modeling of muscle noise, motion artifacts, and the influence of respiration is introduced to increase the complexity of simulated ECGs, making the simulator well suited for data augmentation in machine learning. Modeling of how the PQ and QT intervals depend on heart rate is also introduced. The realism of simulated ECGs is assessed by three experienced doctors, showing that simulated ECGs are difficult to distinguish from real ECGs. Simulator usefulness is illustrated in terms of AF detection performance when either simulated or real ECGs are used to train a neural network for signal quality control. The results show that both types of training lead to similar performance

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Detection of Short Supraventricular Tachycardias in Single-lead ECGs Recorded Using a Handheld Device

Short supraventricular tachycardias (S-SVTs) have been associated with a higher risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF). Hence, identification of participants with such arrhythmias may increase the yield of AF screening. However, the lower signal quality of ECGs recorded using handheld screening devices challenges the detection of S-SVT. In the present work, a new method for detection of S-SVT is presented, which is based on the requirement on morphologic similarity between the detected beats. Specifically, any episode with a sequence of beats of similar morphology is considered as an S-SVT candidate while any episode with detections of different morphology, either due to signal disturbances or aberrant ectopic beats, is excluded. For this purpose, a support vector machine (SVM) was trained and validated, using a simulated ECG database, to classify an episode as either consisting of beats of similar or non-similar morphologies. Episodes identified as S-SVT candidates are subject to two further rhythm criteria in order to confirm the presence of an S-SVT. The performance of the S-SVT detector is evaluated using a subset of the StrokeStop I database (305 S-SVT out of 8258), resulting in a sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 88.8%, 92.0%, and 29.9%, respectively. In conclusion, the results suggest that the detection of S-SVT in AF screening can be done at an acceptable balance between sensitivity and positive predictive value

MAPPING LOCAL PATTERNS OF CHILDHOOD OVERWEIGHT AND WASTING IN LOW- AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic