Outcomes and associated risk factors of patients traced after being lost to follow-up from antiretroviral treatment in Lilongwe, Malawi

Abstract Background Loss to follow-up is a major challenge of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to a) determine true outcomes of patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) and b) identify risk factors associated with successful tracing and deaths of patients LTFU from ART in a large public sector clinic in Lilongwe, Malawi. Methods Patients who were more than 2 weeks late according to their last ART supply and who provided a phone number or address in Lilongwe were eligible for tracing. Their outcomes were updated and risk factors for successful tracing and death were examined. Results Of 1800 patients LTFU with consent for tracing, 724 (40%) were eligible and tracing was successful in 534 (74%): 285 (53%) were found to be alive and on ART; 32 (6%) had stopped ART; and 217 (41%) had died. Having a phone contact doubled tracing success (adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 2.1, 95% CI 1.4-3.0) and odds of identifying deaths [aOR = 1.8 (1.2-2.7)] in patients successfully traced. Mortality was higher when ART was fee-based at initiation (aOR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-4.7) and declined with follow-up time on ART. Limiting the analysis to patients living in Lilongwe did not change the main findings. Conclusion Ascertainment of contact information is a prerequisite for tracing, which can reveal outcomes of a large proportion of patients LTFU. Having a phone contact number is critical for successful tracing, but further research should focus on understanding whether phone tracing is associated with any differential reporting of mortality or LTFU

REACH: a mixed-methods study to investigate the measurement, prediction and improvement of retention and engagement in outpatient HIV care

BACKGROUND Antiretroviral therapy (ART) benefits individuals living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) through reduced morbidity and mortality, and brings public health gains through a reduction in HIV transmission. People living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) need to know their HIV status and engage in HIV care in order for these individual and public health benefits to be realised. OBJECTIVE To explore, describe and understand HIV outpatient attendance in PLWH, in order to develop cost-effective interventions to optimise engagement in care. DESIGN A mixed-methods study incorporating secondary analysis of data from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) study and primary data collection. METHODS Phase 1 – an engagement-in-care (EIC) algorithm was developed to categorise patients as in care or out of care for each month of follow-up. The algorithm was used in group-based trajectory analysis to examine patterns of attendance over time and of the association between the proportion of months in care before ART initiation and post-ART mortality and laboratory test costs. Phase 2 – a cross-sectional survey was conducted among patients attending seven London HIV clinics. Regular attenders (all appointments attended in past year), irregular attenders (one or more appointments missed in past year) and non-attenders (recent absence of ≥ 1 year) were recruited. A ‘retention risk tool’ was developed to identify those at risk of disengaging from care. Individual in-depth interviews and focus groups were conducted with PLWH. Phase 3 – key informant interviews were conducted with HIV service providers. Interventions were developed from the findings of phases 2 and 3. RESULTS Plots from group-based trajectory analysis indicated that four trajectories best fitted the data. Higher EIC is associated with reduced mortality but the association between EIC before starting ART, and post-ART mortality [relative hazard (RH) per 10% increase in EIC 0.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18 to 0.47] was attenuated after adjustment for fixed covariates and post-ART cluster of differentiation 4 counts and viral loads (RH 0.74, 95% CI 0.42 to 1.30). Small differences were found in pre-ART EIC and the costs of post-ART lab tests. The final model for the retention risk tool included age at diagnosis, having children, recreational drug use, drug/alcohol dependency, insufficient money for basic needs and use of public transport to get to the clinic. Quantitative and qualitative data showed that a range of psychological, social and economic issues were associated with disengagement from care. The negative impact of stigma on attendance was highlighted. Interventions were proposed that support a holistic approach to care including peer support, address stigma by holding clinics in alternative locations and involve training staff to encourage attendance. CONCLUSIONS The study shows the adverse health impacts of disengaging from HIV care and demonstrates the importance of the wider health and social context in managing HIV effectively. Although phase 1 analysis was based on UK data, phases 2 and 3 were limited to London. The interventions proposed are supported by the data but their cost-effectiveness requires testing. Future research is needed to evaluate the interventions, to validate our retention risk tool across populations and settings, and to fully analyse the economic costs of disengaging from HIV care

The clinical effectiveness of individual behaviour change interventions to reduce risky sexual behaviour after a negative human immunodeficiency virus test in men who have sex with men: systematic and realist reviews and intervention development

Background: Men who have sex with men (MSM) experience significant inequalities in health and well-being. They are the group in the UK at the highest risk of acquiring a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Guidance relating to both HIV infection prevention, in general, and individual-level behaviour change interventions, in particular, is very limited. Objectives: To conduct an evidence synthesis of the clinical effectiveness of behaviour change interventions to reduce risky sexual behaviour among MSM after a negative HIV infection test. To identify effective components within interventions in reducing HIV risk-related behaviours and develop a candidate intervention. To host expert events addressing the implementation and optimisation of a candidate intervention. Data sources: All major electronic databases (British Education Index, BioMed Central, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, EMBASE, Educational Resource Index and Abstracts, Health and Medical Complete, MEDLINE, PsycARTICLES, PsycINFO, PubMed and Social Science Citation Index) were searched between January 2000 and December 2014. Review methods: A systematic review of the clinical effectiveness of individual behaviour change interventions was conducted. Interventions were examined using the behaviour change technique (BCT) taxonomy, theory coding assessment, mode of delivery and proximity to HIV infection testing. Data were summarised in narrative review and, when appropriate, meta-analysis was carried out. Supplemental analyses for the development of the candidate intervention focused on post hoc realist review method, the assessment of the sequential delivery and content of intervention components, and the social and historical context of primary studies. Expert panels reviewed the candidate intervention for issues of implementation and optimisation. Results: Overall, trials included in this review (n = 10) demonstrated that individual-level behaviour change interventions are effective in reducing key HIV infection risk-related behaviours. However, there was considerable clinical and methodological heterogeneity among the trials. Exploratory meta-analysis showed a statistically significant reduction in behaviours associated with high risk of HIV transmission (risk ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.62 to 0.91). Additional stratified analyses suggested that effectiveness may be enhanced through face-to-face contact immediately after testing, and that theory-based content and BCTs drawn from ‘goals and planning’ and ‘identity’ groups are important. All evidence collated in the review was synthesised to develop a candidate intervention. Experts highlighted overall acceptability of the intervention and outlined key ways that the candidate intervention could be optimised to enhance UK implementation. Limitations: There was a limited number of primary studies. All were from outside the UK and were subject to considerable clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity. The findings of the meta-analysis must therefore be treated with caution. The lack of detailed intervention manuals limited the assessment of intervention content, delivery and fidelity. Conclusions: Evidence regarding the effectiveness of behaviour change interventions suggests that they are effective in changing behaviour associated with HIV transmission. Exploratory stratified meta-analyses suggested that interventions should be delivered face to face and immediately after testing. There are uncertainties around the generalisability of these findings to the UK setting. However, UK experts found the intervention acceptable and provided ways of optimising the candidate intervention. Future work: There is a need for well-designed, UK-based trials of individual behaviour change interventions that clearly articulate intervention content and demonstrate intervention fidelity

Human resources requirements for highly active antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Malawi

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Twelve percent of the adult population in Malawi is estimated to be HIV infected. About 15% to 20% of these are in need of life saving antiretroviral therapy. The country has a public sector-led antiretroviral treatment program both in the private and public health sectors. Estimation of the clinical human resources needs is required to inform the planning and distribution of health professionals.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We obtained data on the total number of patients on highly active antiretroviral treatment program from the Malawi National AIDS Commission and Ministry of Health, HIV Unit, and the number of registered health professionals from the relevant regulatory bodies. We also estimated number of health professionals required to deliver highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) using estimates of human resources from the literature. We also obtained data from the Ministry of Health on the actual number of nurses, clinical officers and medical doctors providing services in HAART clinics. We then made comparisons between the human resources situation on the ground and the theoretical estimates based on explicit assumptions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 610 clinicians (396 clinical officers and 214 physicians), 44 pharmacists and 98 pharmacy technicians and 7264 nurses registered in Malawi. At the end of March 2007 there were 85 clinical officer and physician full-time equivalents (FTEs) and 91 nurse FTEs providing HAART to 95,674 patients. The human resources used for the delivery of HAART comprised 13.9% of all clinical officers and physicians and 1.1% of all nurses. Using the estimated numbers of health professionals from the literature required 15.7–31.4% of all physicians and clinical officers, 66.5–199.3% of all pharmacists and pharmacy technicians and 2.6 to 9.2% of all the available nurses. To provide HAART to all the 170,000 HIV infected persons estimated as clinically eligible would require 4.7% to 16.4% of the total number of nurses, 118.1% to 354.2% of all the available pharmacists and pharmacy technicians and 27.9% to 55.7% of all clinical officers and physicians. The actual number of health professionals working in the delivery of HAART in the clinics represented 44% to 88.8% (for clinical officers and medical doctors) and 13.6% and 47.6% (for nurses), of what would have been needed based on the literature estimation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>HAART provision is a labour intensive exercise. Although these data are insufficient to determine whether HAART scale-up has resulted in the weakening or strengthening of the health systems in Malawi, the human resources requirements for HAART scale-up are significant. Malawi is using far less human resources than would be estimated based on the literature from other settings. The impact of HAART scale-up on the overall delivery of health services should be assessed.</p

Gender distribution of adult patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Southern Africa: a systematic review

Background: HIV and AIDS are significant and growing public health concerns in southern Africa. The majority of countries in the region have national adult HIV prevalence estimates exceeding 10 percent. The increasing availability of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has potential to mitigate the situation. There is however concern that women may experience more barriers in accessing treatment programs than men. Methods: A systematic review of the literature was carried out to describe the gender distribution of patients accessing highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Southern Africa. Data on number of patients on treatment, their mean or median age and gender were obtained and compared across studies and reports. Results: The median or mean age of patients in the studies ranged from 33 to 39 years. While female to male HIV infection prevalence ratios in the southern African countries ranged from 1.2:1 to 1.6:1, female to male ratios on HAART ranged from 0.8: 1 to 2.3: 1. The majority of the reports had female: male ratio in treatment exceeding 1.6. Overall, there were more females on HAART than there were males and this was not solely explained by the higher HIV prevalence among females compared to males. Conclusion: In most Southern African countries, proportionally more females are on HIV antiretroviral treatment than men, even when the higher HIV infection prevalence in females is accounted for. There is need to identify the factors that are facilitating women's accessibility to HIV treatment. As more patients access HAART in the region, it will be important to continue assessing the gender distribution of patients on HAART.Peer Reviewe

Assessing the impact and cost-effectiveness of needle and syringe provision and opioid substitution therapy on hepatitis C transmission among people who inject drugs in the UK: an analysis of pooled data sets and economic modelling

Background There is limited evidence of the impact of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) and opioid substitution therapy (OST) on hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID), nor have there been any economic evaluations. Objective(s) To measure (1) the impact of NSP and OST, (2) changes in the extent of provision of both interventions, and (3) costs and cost-effectiveness of NSPs on HCV infection transmission. Design We conducted (1) a systematic review; (2) an analysis of existing data sets, including collating costs of NSPs; and (3) a dynamic deterministic model to estimate the impact of differing OST/NSP intervention coverage levels for reducing HCV infection prevalence, incidence and disease burden, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to measure the cost-effectiveness of current NSP provision versus no provision. Setting Cost-effectiveness analysis and impact modelling in three UK sites. The pooled analysis drew on data from the UK and Australia. The review was international. Participants PWID. Interventions NSP coverage (proportion of injections covered by clean needles) and OST. Outcome New cases of HCV infection. Results The review suggested that OST reduced the risk of HCV infection acquisition by 50% [rate ratio (RR) 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 0.63]. Weaker evidence was found in areas of high (≥ 100%) NSP coverage (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.54) internationally. There was moderate evidence for combined high coverage of NSPs and OST (RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.65). The pooled analysis showed that combined high coverage of NSPs and OST reduced the risk of HCV infection acquisition by 29–71% compared with those on minimal harm reduction (no OST, ≤ 100% NSP coverage). NSPs are likely to be cost-effective and are cost-saving in some settings. The impact modelling suggest that removing OST (current coverage 81%) and NSPs (coverage 54%) in one site would increase HCV infection incidence by 329% [95% credible interval (CrI) 110% to 953%] in 2031 and at least double (132% increase; 95% CrI 51% to 306%) the number of new infections over 15 years. Increasing NSP coverage to 80% has the largest impact in the site with the lowest current NSP coverage (35%), resulting in a 27% (95% CrI 7% to 43%) decrease in new infections and 41% (95% CrI 11% to 72%) decrease in incidence by 2031 compared with 2016. Addressing homelessness and reducing the harm associated with the injection of crack cocaine could avert approximately 60% of HCV infections over the next 15 years. Limitations Findings are limited by the misclassification of NSP coverage and the simplified intervention definition that fails to capture the integrated services that address other social and health needs as part of this. Conclusions There is moderate evidence of the effectiveness of OST and NSPs, especially in combination, on HCV infection acquisition risk. Policies to ensure that NSPs can be accessed alongside OST are needed. NSPs are cost-saving in some sites and cost-effective in others. NSPs and OST are likely to prevent considerable rates of HCV infection in the UK. Increasing NSP coverage will have most impact in settings with low coverage. Scaling up other interventions such as HCV infection treatment are needed to decrease epidemics to low levels in higher prevalence settings. Future work To understand the mechanisms through which NSPs and OST achieve their effect and the optimum contexts to support implementation. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme. </jats:sec

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980�2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95 uncertainty interval UI 3·1�3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5�2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6�40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7�1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1�1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens