A missing dimension in measures of vaccination impacts

Immunological protection, acquired from either natural infection or vaccination, varies among hosts, reflecting underlying biological variation and affecting population-level protection. Owing to the nature of resistance mechanisms, distributions of susceptibility and protection entangle with pathogen dose in a way that can be decoupled by adequately representing the dose dimension. Any infectious processes must depend in some fashion on dose, and empirical evidence exists for an effect of exposure dose on the probability of transmission to mumps-vaccinated hosts [1], the case-fatality ratio of measles [2], and the probability of infection and, given infection, of symptoms in cholera [3]. Extreme distributions of vaccine protection have been termed leaky (partially protects all hosts) and all-or-nothing (totally protects a proportion of hosts) [4]. These distributions can be distinguished in vaccine field trials from the time dependence of infections [5]. Frailty mixing models have also been proposed to estimate the distribution of protection from time to event data [6], [7], although the results are not comparable across regions unless there is explicit control for baseline transmission [8]. Distributions of host susceptibility and acquired protection can be estimated from dose-response data generated under controlled experimental conditions [9]–[11] and natural settings [12], [13]. These distributions can guide research on mechanisms of protection, as well as enable model validity across the entire range of transmission intensities. We argue for a shift to a dose-dimension paradigm in infectious disease science and community health

Global instability in the Ghil--Sellers model

The Ghil--Sellers model, a diffusive one-dimensional energy balance model of Earth's climate, features---for a considerable range of the parameter descriptive of the intensity of the incoming radiation---two stable climate states, where the bistability results from the celebrated ice-albedo feedback. The warm state is qualitatively similar to the present climate, while the cold state corresponds to snowball conditions. Additionally, in the region of bistability, one can find unstable climate states. We find such unstable states by applying for the first time in a geophysical context the so-called edge tracking method, which has been used for studying multiple coexisting states in shear flows. This method has a great potential for studying the global instabilities in multistable systems, and for providing crucial information on the possibility of transitions when forcing is present. We examine robustness, efficiency, and accuracy properties of the edge tracking algorithm. We find that the procedure is the most efficient when taking a single bisection per cycle. Due to the strong diffusivity of the system, the transient dynamics, is approximately confined to the heteroclininc trajectory, connecting the fixed unstable and stable states, after relatively short transient times. Such a constraint dictates a functional relationship between observables. We characterize such a relationship between the global average temperature and a descriptor of nonequilibrium thermodynamics, the large scale temperature gradient between low and high latitudes. We find that a maximum of the temperature gradient is realized at the same value of the average temperature, about 270 K, largely independent of the strength of incoming solar radiation. Due to this maximum, a transient increase and nonmonotonic evolution of the temperature gradient is possible and not untypical. We also examine the structural properties of the system defined by bifurcation diagrams describing the equilibria depending on a system parameter of interest, here the solar strength. We construct new bifurcation diagrams in terms of quantities relevant for describing thermodynamic properties such as the temperature gradient and the material entropy production due to heat transport. We compare our results for the energy balance model to results for the intermediate complexity general circulation model the Planet Simulator and find an interesting qualitative agreement

Women on boards and firm performance

This study investigates the financial performance of Dutch companies both with and without women on their boards. The analysis extends earlier methods used in research by Catalyst (The bottom line: corporate performance and women's representation on boards, 2007) and McKinsey (Women matter. Gender diversity, a corporate performance driver. McKinsey & Company, USA, 2007), two studies that are often cited in the literature, although, each has a number of methodological shortcomings. This article adds to the international debate, which is often normative, through examining 99 listed companies in the Dutch Female Board Index. Our results show that firms with women directors perform better than those without women on their boards

Does Pathogen Spillover from Commercially Reared Bumble Bees Threaten Wild Pollinators?

The conservation of insect pollinators is drawing attention because of reported declines in bee species and the ‘ecosystem services’ they provide. This issue has been brought to a head by recent devastating losses of honey bees throughout North America (so called, ‘Colony Collapse Disorder’); yet, we still have little understanding of the cause(s) of bee declines. Wild bumble bees (Bombus spp.) have also suffered serious declines and circumstantial evidence suggests that pathogen ‘spillover’ from commercially reared bumble bees, which are used extensively to pollinate greenhouse crops, is a possible cause. We constructed a spatially explicit model of pathogen spillover in bumble bees and, using laboratory experiments and the literature, estimated parameter values for the spillover of Crithidia bombi, a destructive pathogen commonly found in commercial Bombus. We also monitored wild bumble bee populations near greenhouses for evidence of pathogen spillover, and compared the fit of our model to patterns of C. bombi infection observed in the field. Our model predicts that, during the first three months of spillover, transmission from commercial hives would infect up to 20% of wild bumble bees within 2 km of the greenhouse. However, a travelling wave of disease is predicted to form suddenly, infecting up to 35–100% of wild Bombus, and spread away from the greenhouse at a rate of 2 km/wk. In the field, although we did not observe a large epizootic wave of infection, the prevalences of C. bombi near greenhouses were consistent with our model. Indeed, we found that spillover has allowed C. bombi to invade several wild bumble bee species near greenhouses. Given the available evidence, it is likely that pathogen spillover from commercial bees is contributing to the ongoing decline of wild Bombus in North America. Improved management of domestic bees, for example by reducing their parasite loads and their overlap with wild congeners, could diminish or even eliminate pathogen spillover

Electrostatic free energy landscapes for nucleic acid helix assembly

Metal ions are crucial for nucleic acid folding. From the free energy landscapes, we investigate the detailed mechanism for ion-induced collapse for a paradigm system: loop-tethered short DNA helices. We find that Na(+) and Mg(2+) play distinctive roles in helix–helix assembly. High [Na(+)] (>0.3 M) causes a reduced helix–helix electrostatic repulsion and a subsequent disordered packing of helices. In contrast, Mg(2+) of concentration >1 mM is predicted to induce helix–helix attraction and results in a more compact and ordered helix–helix packing. Mg(2+) is much more efficient in causing nucleic acid compaction. In addition, the free energy landscape shows that the tethering loops between the helices also play a significant role. A flexible loop, such as a neutral loop or a polynucleotide loop in high salt concentration, enhances the close approach of the helices in order to gain the loop entropy. On the other hand, a rigid loop, such as a polynucleotide loop in low salt concentration, tends to de-compact the helices. Therefore, a polynucleotide loop significantly enhances the sharpness of the ion-induced compaction transition. Moreover, we find that a larger number of helices in the system or a smaller radius of the divalent ions can cause a more abrupt compaction transition and a more compact state at high ion concentration, and the ion size effect becomes more pronounced as the number of helices is increased

A Forward Genetic Screen in Mice Identifies Mutants with Abnormal Cortical Patterning

Formation of a 6-layered cortical plate and axon tract patterning are key features of cerebral cortex development. Abnormalities of these processes may be the underlying cause for a range of functional disabilities seen in human neurodevelopmental disorders. To identify mouse mutants with defects in cortical lamination or corticofugal axon guidance, N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU) mutagenesis was performed using mice expressing LacZ reporter genes in layers II/III and V of the cortex (Rgs4-lacZ) or in corticofugal axons (TAG1-tau-lacZ). Four lines with abnormal cortical lamination have been identified. One of these was a splice site mutation in reelin (Reln) that results in a premature stop codon and the truncation of the C-terminal region (CTR) domain of reelin. Interestingly, this novel allele of Reln did not display cerebellar malformation or ataxia, and this is the first report of a Reln mutant without a cerebellar defect. Four lines with abnormal cortical axon development were also identified, one of which was found by whole-genome resequencing to carry a mutation in Lrp2. These findings demonstrated that the application of ENU mutagenesis to mice carrying transgenic reporters marking cortical anatomy is a sensitive and specific method to identify mutations that disrupt patterning of the developing brain

Biological dosimetry after radiosynoviorthesis with rhenium-186 sulphide and erbium-169 citrate

Zur Abschätzung der radiobiologischen Sicherheit des Verfahrens wird in dieser Arbeit die Radiosynoviorthese (RSO) mit Re-186 und Er-169 hinsichtlich biologischer Strahleneffekte untersucht. Bei 23 Patienten wurde eine RSO mit Rhenium-186-Sulfid- (10 Patienten) oder Erbium-169-Zitratkolloid (13 Patienten) durchgeführt. Das behandelte Gelenk wurde anschließend ruhig gestellt. Bei allen Patienten erfolgte vor und 17–19 Tage (Re-186) bzw. 45–50 Tage (Er-169) nach der RSO eine venöse Blutentnahme. Zur Analyse der Strahlenexposition wurde die Häufigkeit von dizentrischen Chromosomen in Lymphozyten der ersten Zellteilung in vitro bestimmt. Pro Patient wurden mindestens 1000 Zellen vor und nach der RSO untersucht, was nach längerer Einwirkung niederenergetischer Strahlung ausreichend ist, um im bestrahlten Kollektiv die im Rahmen der RSO erwarteten Strahlendosen nachzuweisen. Ergänzend wurde bei den mit Re-186 behandelten Patienten der Aktivitätsabtransport aus dem Gelenk mittels Ganzkörperszintigraphie bestimmt. In der Untersuchung von insgesamt 47017 Zellen fanden sich vor RSO mit Re-186 bzw. Er-169 40 bzw. 88, danach 59 bzw. 105 dizentrische Chromosomen in Lymphozyten des peripheren Blutes. Eine signifikante Zunahme der dizentrischen Chromosomen nach der RSO zeigte sich nicht. Der Aktivitätsabtransport nach RSO mit Re-186 lag durchschnittlich unter 5 % (unter 3 MBq) und ist damit als gering einzustufen. Die Ergebnisse der Untersuchung von Chromosomenaberrationen und des Aktivitätsabtransports nach Radiosynoviorthese mit Rhenium-186 und Erbium-169 sprechen für eine geringe Strahlenexposition der Patienten und damit für die Sicherheit des Verfahrens.The aim of the present studies was to investigate the biological radiation effect of radiosynoviorthesis (RSO) with Re-186 and Er-169 in order to evaluate the safety of this procedure. RSO with rhenium-186 sulfide colloid (10 patients) or erbium-169 citrate colloid (13 patients) was carried out in a total of 23 patients. Afterwards, the treated joint was immobilised for three days using splints. From all patients, blood was drawn immediately before and 17 to 19 days (Re-186) or 45 to 50 days (Er-169) after RSO. To evaluate the radiation dose, the yield of dicentric chromosomes in lymphocytes was determined exclusively in metaphases of the first cell cycle in vitro. At least 1000 cells per patient have been analysed before and after RSO which is sufficient to find potential radiation effects after long-term exposure to low energy radiation such as to expect after RSO. In addition, for Re-186 the activity leakage from the treated joint was measured by whole-body scintigraphy. In a total of 47017 cells analysed from 46 blood samples, 40 and 88 before and 59 and 105 dicentrics after RSO with Re-186 and Er-169 were found. This showed no statistically significant increase in the number of dicentric chromosomes. The measured average activity leakage of less than 5 % (less than 3 MBq) was considered to be low. The results of chromosome analysis and activity measurement after RSO prove that this procedure is associated with a low effective dose in treated patients and thus can be considered a safe treatment

Search for Gravitational Waves from Low Mass Compact Binary Coalescence in LIGO's Sixth Science Run and Virgo's Science Runs 2 and 3

We report on a search for gravitational waves from coalescing compact binaries using LIGO and Virgo observations between July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010. We searched for signals from binaries with total mass between 2 and 25 solar masses; this includes binary neutron stars, binary black holes, and binaries consisting of a black hole and neutron star. The detectors were sensitive to systems up to 40 Mpc distant for binary neutron stars, and further for higher mass systems. No gravitational-wave signals were detected. We report upper limits on the rate of compact binary coalescence as a function of total mass, including the results from previous LIGO and Virgo observations. The cumulative 90%-confidence rate upper limits of the binary coalescence of binary neutron star, neutron star- black hole and binary black hole systems are 1.3 x 10^{-4}, 3.1 x 10^{-5} and 6.4 x 10^{-6} Mpc^{-3}yr^{-1}, respectively. These upper limits are up to a factor 1.4 lower than previously derived limits. We also report on results from a blind injection challenge.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures. For a repository of data used in the publication, go to: . Also see the announcement for this paper on ligo.org at: <http://www.ligo.org/science/Publication-S6CBCLowMass/index.php

Implementation and testing of the first prompt search for gravitational wave transients with electromagnetic counterparts

Aims. A transient astrophysical event observed in both gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) channels would yield rich scientific rewards. A first program initiating EM follow-ups to possible transient GW events has been developed and exercised by the LIGO and Virgo community in association with several partners. In this paper, we describe and evaluate the methods used to promptly identify and localize GW event candidates and to request images of targeted sky locations. Methods. During two observing periods (Dec 17 2009 to Jan 8 2010 and Sep 2 to Oct 20 2010), a low-latency analysis pipeline was used to identify GW event candidates and to reconstruct maps of possible sky locations. A catalog of nearby galaxies and Milky Way globular clusters was used to select the most promising sky positions to be imaged, and this directional information was delivered to EM observatories with time lags of about thirty minutes. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to evaluate the low-latency GW pipeline's ability to reconstruct source positions correctly. Results. For signals near the detection threshold, our low-latency algorithms often localized simulated GW burst signals to tens of square degrees, while neutron star/neutron star inspirals and neutron star/black hole inspirals were localized to a few hundred square degrees. Localization precision improves for moderately stronger signals. The correct sky location of signals well above threshold and originating from nearby galaxies may be observed with ~50% or better probability with a few pointings of wide-field telescopes.Comment: 17 pages. This version (v2) includes two tables and 1 section not included in v1. Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic