Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Neutralizing IFN-γ autoantibodies are rare and pathogenic in HLA-DRB1*15:02 or 16:02 individuals.

BACKGROUNDWeakly virulent environmental mycobacteria (EM) can cause severe disease in HLA-DRB1*15:02 or 16:02 adults harboring neutralizing anti-IFN-γ autoantibodies (nAIGAs). The overall prevalence of nAIGAs in the general population is unknown, as are the penetrance of nAIGAs in HLA-DRB1*15:02 or 16:02 individuals and the proportion of patients with unexplained, adult-onset EM infections carrying nAIGAs.METHODSThis study analyzed the detection and neutralization of anti-IFN-γ autoantibodies (auto-Abs) from 8,430 healthy individuals of the general population, 257 HLA-DRB1*15:02 or 16:02 carriers, 1,063 patients with autoimmune disease, and 497 patients with unexplained severe disease due to EM.RESULTSWe found that anti-IFN-γ auto-Abs detected in 4,148 of 8,430 healthy individuals (49.2%) from the general population of an unknown HLA-DRB1 genotype were not neutralizing. Moreover, we did not find nAIGAs in 257 individuals carrying HLA-DRB1* 15:02 or 16:02. Additionally, nAIGAs were absent in 1,063 patients with an autoimmune disease. Finally, 7 of 497 patients (1.4%) with unexplained severe disease due to EM harbored nAIGAs.CONCLUSIONThese findings suggest that nAIGAs are isolated and that their penetrance in HLA-DRB1*15:02 or 16:02 individuals is low, implying that they may be triggered by rare germline or somatic variants. In contrast, the risk of mycobacterial disease in patients with nAIGAs is high, confirming that these nAIGAs are the cause of EM disease.FUNDINGThe Laboratory of Human Genetics of Infectious Diseases is supported by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, the Rockefeller University, the St. Giles Foundation, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) (R01AI095983 and U19AIN1625568), the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), the NIH Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) program (UL1 TR001866), the French National Research Agency (ANR) under the Investments for the Future program (ANR-10-IAHU-01), the Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratory of Excellence (ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), ANR-GENMSMD (ANR-16-CE17-0005-01), ANR-MAFMACRO (ANR-22-CE92-0008), ANRSECTZ170784, the French Foundation for Medical Research (FRM) (EQU201903007798), the ANRS-COV05, ANR GENVIR (ANR-20-CE93-003), and ANR AI2D (ANR-22-CE15-0046) projects, the ANR-RHU program (ANR-21-RHUS-08-COVIFERON), the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 824110 (EASI-genomics), the Square Foundation, Grandir - Fonds de solidarité pour lenfance, the Fondation du Souffle, the SCOR Corporate Foundation for Science, the Battersea &amp; Bowery Advisory Group, William E. Ford, General Atlantics Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Gabriel Caillaux, General Atlantics Co-President, Managing Director, and Head of business in EMEA, and the General Atlantic Foundation, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) and of Paris Cité University. JR was supported by the INSERM PhD program for doctors of pharmacy (poste daccueil INSERM). JR and TLV were supported by the Bettencourt-Schueller Foundation and the MD-PhD program of the Imagine Institute. MO was supported by the David Rockefeller Graduate Program, the Funai Foundation for Information Technology (FFIT), the Honjo International Scholarship Foundation (HISF), and the New York Hideyo Noguchi Memorial Society (HNMS)

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods: We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings: The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation: By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods: We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings: The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation: By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

MAPPING LOCAL PATTERNS OF CHILDHOOD OVERWEIGHT AND WASTING IN LOW- AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic