Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)-Phase II models are evaluated in terms of their retrospective seasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclone (TC) activity, with a focus on TC frequency. The TC identification and tracking algorithm is modified to accommodate model data at daily resolution. It is also applied to three reanalysis products at the spatial and temporal resolution of the NMME-Phase II ensemble to allow for a more objective estimation of forecast skill. When used with the reanalysis data, the TC tracking generates realistic climatological distributions of the NA TC formation and tracks, and represents the interannual variability of the NA TC frequency quite well. Forecasts with the multi-model ensemble (MME) when initialized in April and later tend to have skill in predicting the NA seasonal TC counts (and TC days). At longer leads, the skill is low or marginal, although one of the models produces skillful forecasts when initialized as early as January and February. At short lead times, while demonstrating the highest skill levels the MME also tends to significantly outperform the individual models and attain skill comparable to the reanalysis. In addition, the short-lead MME forecasts are quite reliable. At regional scales, the skill is rather limited and mostly present in the western tropical NA and the Caribbean Sea. It is found that the overall MME forecast skill is limited by poor representation of the low-frequency variability in the predicted TC frequency, and large fluctuations in skill on decadal time scales. Addressing these deficiencies is thought to increase the value of the NMME ensemble in providing operational guidance

The impact of emotional well-being on long-term recovery and survival in physical illness: a meta-analysis

This meta-analysis synthesized studies on emotional well-being as predictor of the prognosis of physical illness, while in addition evaluating the impact of putative moderators, namely constructs of well-being, health-related outcome, year of publication, follow-up time and methodological quality of the included studies. The search in reference lists and electronic databases (Medline and PsycInfo) identified 17 eligible studies examining the impact of general well-being, positive affect and life satisfaction on recovery and survival in physically ill patients. Meta-analytically combining these studies revealed a Likelihood Ratio of 1.14, indicating a small but significant effect. Higher levels of emotional well-being are beneficial for recovery and survival in physically ill patients. The findings show that emotional well-being predicts long-term prognosis of physical illness. This suggests that enhancement of emotional well-being may improve the prognosis of physical illness, which should be investigated by future research

Mathematical modelling of cytokines, MMPs and fibronectin fragments in osteoarthritic cartilage

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a degenerative disease which causes pain and stiffness in joints. OA progresses through excessive degradation of joint cartilage, eventually leading to significant joint degeneration and loss of function. Cytokines, a group of cell signalling proteins, present in raised concentrations in OA joints, can be classified into pro-inflammatory and anti-inflammatory groups. They mediate cartilage degradation through several mechanisms, primarily the up-regulation of matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs), a group of collagen-degrading enzymes. In this paper we show that the interactions of cytokines within cartilage have a crucial role to play in OA progression and treatment. We develop a four-variable ordinary differential equation model for the interactions between pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, MMPs and fibronectin fragments (Fn-fs), a by-product of cartilage degradation and upregulator of cytokines. We show that the model has four classes of dynamic behaviour: homoeostasis, bistable inflammation, tristable inflammation and persistent inflammation. We show that positive and negative feedbacks controlling cytokine production rates can determine either a pre-disposition to OA or initiation of OA. Further, we show that manipulation of cytokine, MMP and Fn-fs levels can be used to treat OA, but we suggest that multiple treatment targets may be essential to halt or slow disease progression

Study of Zγ events and limits on anomalous ZZγ and Zγγ couplings in pp̄ collisions at s=1.96TeV

We present a measurement of the Zγ production cross section and limits on anomalous ZZγ and Zγγ couplings for form-factor scales of Λ=750 and 1000 GeV. The measurement is based on 138 (152) candidates in the eeγ (μμγ) final state using 320(290)pb-1 of pp̄ collisions at s=1.96TeV. The 95% C.L. limits on real and imaginary parts of individual anomalous couplings are |h10,30Z|<0.23, |h20,40Z|<0.020, |h10,30γ|<0.23, and |h20,40γ|<0.019 for Λ=1000GeV. © 2005 The American Physical Society

Murine Missing in Metastasis (MIM) Mediates Cell Polarity and Regulates the Motility Response to Growth Factors

Missing in metastasis (MIM) is a member of the inverse BAR-domain protein family, and in vitro studies have implied MIM plays a role in deforming membrane curvature into filopodia-like protrusions and cell dynamics. Yet, the physiological role of the endogenous MIM in mammalian cells remains undefined.We have examined mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) derived from mice in which the MIM locus was targeted by a gene trapping vector. MIM(-/-) MEFs showed a less polarized architecture characterized by smooth edges and fewer cell protrusions as compared to wild type cells, although the formation of filopodia-like microprotrusions appeared to be normal. Immunofluorescent staining further revealed that MIM(-/-) cells were partially impaired in the assembly of stress fibers and focal adhesions but were enriched with transverse actin filaments at the periphery. Poor assembly of stress fibers was apparently correlated with attenuation of the activity of Rho GTPases and partially relieved upon overexpressing of Myc-RhoA(Q63L), a constitutively activated RhoA mutant. MIM(-/-) cells were also spread less effectively than wild type cells during attachment to dishes and substratum. Upon treatment with PDGF MIM(-/-) cells developed more prominent dorsal ruffles along with increased Rac1 activity. Compared to wild type cells, MIM(-/-) cells had a slower motility in the presence of a low percentage of serum-containing medium but migrated normally upon adding growth factors such as 10% serum, PDGF or EGF. MIM(-/-) cells were also partially impaired in the internalization of transferrin, fluorescent dyes, foreign DNAs and PDGF receptor alpha. On the other hand, the level of tyrosine phosphorylation of PDGF receptors was more elevated in MIM depleted cells than wild type cells upon PDGF treatment.Our data suggests that endogenous MIM protein regulates globally the cell architecture and endocytosis that ultimately influence a variety of cellular behaviors, including cell polarity, motility, receptor signaling and membrane ruffling

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT