How South Pacific mangroves may respond to predicted climate change and sea level rise

In the Pacific islands the total mangrove area is about 343,735 ha, with largest areas in Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Fiji and New Caledonia. A total of 34 species of mangroves occur, as well as 3 hybrids. These are of the Indo-Malayan assemblage (with one exception), and decline in diversity from west to east across the Pacific, reaching a limit at American Samoa. Mangrove resources are traditionally exploited in the Pacific islands, for construction and fuel wood, herbal medicines, and the gathering of crabs and fish. There are two main environmental settings for mangroves in the Pacific, deltaic and estuarine mangroves of high islands, and embayment, lagoon and reef flat mangroves of low islands. It is indicated from past analogues that their close relationship with sea-level height renders these mangrove swamps particularly vulnerable to disruption by sea-level rise. Stratigraphic records of Pacific island mangrove ecosystems during sea-level changes of the Holocene Period demonstrate that low islands mangroves can keep up with a sea-level rise of up to 12 cm per 100 years. Mangroves of high islands can keep up with rates of sea-level rates of up to 45 cm per 100 years, according to the supply of fluvial sediment. When the rate of sea-level rise exceeds the rate of accretion, mangroves experience problems of substrate erosion, inundation stress and increased salinity. Rise in temperature and the direct effects of increased CO2 levels are likely to increase mangrove productivity, change phenological patterns (such as the timing of flowering and fruiting), and expand the ranges of mangroves into higher latitudes. Pacific island mangroves are expected to demonstrate a sensitive response to the predicted rise in sea-level. A regional monitoring system is needed to provide data on ecosystem changes in productivity, species composition and sedimentation. This has been the intention of a number of programs, but none has yet been implemented

Design of the sex hormones and physical exercise (SHAPE) study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physical activity has been associated with a decreased risk for breast cancer. The biological mechanismn(s) underlying the association between physical activity and breast cancer is not clear. Most prominent hypothesis is that physical activity may protect against breast cancer through reduced lifetime exposure to endogenous hormones either direct, or indirect by preventing overweight and abdominal adiposity. In order to get more insight in the causal pathway between physical activity and breast cancer risk, we designed the <it>Sex Hormones and Physical Exercise (SHAPE) </it>study. Purpose of SHAPE study is to examine the effects of a 1-year moderate-to-vigorous intensity exercise programme on endogenous hormone levels associated with breast cancer among sedentary postmenopausal women and whether the amount of total body fat or abdominal fat mediates the effects.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>In the SHAPE study, 189 sedentary postmenopausal women, aged 50–69 years, are randomly allocated to an intervention or a control group. The intervention consists of an 1-year moderate-to-vigorous intensity aerobic and strenght training exercise programme. Partcipants allocated to the control group are requested to retain their habitual exercise pattern. Primary study parameters measured at baseline, at four months and at 12 months are: serum concentrations of endogenous estrogens, endogenous androgens, sex hormone binding globuline and insuline. Other study parameters include: amount of total and abdominal fat, weight, BMI, body fat distribution, physical fitness, blood pressure and lifestyle factors.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study will contribute to the body of evidence relating physical activity and breast cancer risk and will provide insight into possible mechanisms through which physical activity might be associated with reduced risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NCT00359060</p

Living Well with Diabetes: a randomized controlled trial of a telephone-delivered intervention for maintenance of weight loss, physical activity and glycaemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes

Background By 2025, it is estimated that approximately 1.8 million Australian adults (approximately 8.4% of the adult population) will have diabetes, with the majority having type 2 diabetes. Weight management via improved physical activity and diet is the cornerstone of type 2 diabetes management. However, the majority of weight loss trials in diabetes have evaluated short-term, intensive clinic-based interventions that, while producing short-term outcomes, have failed to address issues of maintenance and broad population reach. Telephone-delivered interventions have the potential to address these gaps. Methods/Design Using a two-arm randomised controlled design, this study will evaluate an 18-month, telephone-delivered, behavioural weight loss intervention focussing on physical activity, diet and behavioural therapy, versus usual care, with follow-up at 24 months. Three-hundred adult participants, aged 20-75 years, with type 2 diabetes, will be recruited from 10 general practices via electronic medical records search. The Social-Cognitive Theory driven intervention involves a six-month intensive phase (4 weekly calls and 11 fortnightly calls) and a 12-month maintenance phase (one call per month). Primary outcomes, assessed at 6, 18 and 24 months, are: weight loss, physical activity, and glycaemic control (HbA1c), with weight loss and physical activity also measured at 12 months. Incremental cost-effectiveness will also be examined. Study recruitment began in February 2009, with final data collection expected by February 2013. Discussion This is the first study to evaluate the telephone as the primary method of delivering a behavioural weight loss intervention in type 2 diabetes. The evaluation of maintenance outcomes (6 months following the end of intervention), the use of accelerometers to objectively measure physical activity, and the inclusion of a cost-effectiveness analysis will advance the science of broad reach approaches to weight control and health behaviour change, and will build the evidence base needed to advocate for the translation of this work into population health practice

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Lawson criterion for ignition exceeded in an inertial fusion experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion

Adiposity and cancer risk: new mechanistic insights from epidemiology

Excess body adiposity, commonly expressed as body mass index (BMI), is a risk factor for many common adult cancers. Over the past decade, epidemiological data have shown that adiposity-cancer risk associations are specific for gender, site, geographical population, histological subtype and molecular phenotype. The biological mechanisms underpinning these associations are incompletely understood but need to take account of the specificities observed in epidemiology to better inform future prevention strategies

Socioeconomic position and risk of short-term weight gain:prospective study of 14,619 middle-aged men and women

Background The association between socioeconomic position in middle age and risk of subsequent, short-term weight gain is unknown. We therefore assessed this association in a prospective population based cohort study in Norfolk, UK. Methods We analysed data on 14,619 middle-aged men and women (aged between 40–75 at baseline) with repeated objective measures of weight and height at baseline (1993–1997) and follow up (1998–2000). Results During follow up 5,064 people gained more than 2.5 kg. Compared with the highest social class, individuals in the lowest social class had around a 30% greater risk of gaining more than 2.5 kg (OR 1.29; 95% CI 1.11–1.51; p for trend = 0.002). This association remained statistically significant following adjustment for sex, age, baseline BMI, smoking, and follow up time (OR 1.25; CI 1.07–1.46; p for trend <0.001). We also found no material difference between unadjusted models and those including all confounders and potential mediators. Conclusion Individuals of low socioeconomic position are at greatest risk of gaining weight during middle age, which is not explained by classical correlates of socioeconomic position and risk factors for obesity