Random replicators with high-order interactions

We use tools of the equilibrium statistical mechanics of disordered systems to study analytically the statistical properties of an ecosystem composed of N species interacting via random, Gaussian interactions of order p >= 2, and deterministic self-interactions u <= 0. We show that for nonzero u the effect of increasing the order of the interactions is to make the system more cooperative, in the sense that the fraction of extinct species is greatly reduced. Furthermore, we find that for p > 2 there is a threshold value which gives a lower bound to the concentration of the surviving species, preventing then the existence of rare species and, consequently, increasing the robustness of the ecosystem to external perturbations.Comment: 7 pages, 4 Postscript figure

Weighted Evolving Networks

Many biological, ecological and economic systems are best described by weighted networks, as the nodes interact with each other with varying strength. However, most network models studied so far are binary, the link strength being either 0 or 1. In this paper we introduce and investigate the scaling properties of a class of models which assign weights to the links as the network evolves. The combined numerical and analytical approach indicates that asymptotically the total weight distribution converges to the scaling behavior of the connectivity distribution, but this convergence is hampered by strong logarithmic corrections.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Analytical solution of a model for complex food webs

We investigate numerically and analytically a recently proposed model for food webs [Nature {\bf 404}, 180 (2000)] in the limit of large web sizes and sparse interaction matrices. We obtain analytical expressions for several quantities with ecological interest, in particular the probability distributions for the number of prey and the number of predators. We find that these distributions have fast-decaying exponential and Gaussian tails, respectively. We also find that our analytical expressions are robust to changes in the details of the model.Comment: 4 pages (RevTeX). Final versio

Phenotypic variation of larks along an aridity gradient:Are desert birds more flexible?

We investigated interindividual variation and intra-individual phenotypic flexibility in basal metabolic rate (BMR), total evaporative water loss (TEWL), body temperature (T-b), the minimum dry heat transfer coefficient (h), and organ and muscle size of five species of larks geographically distributed along an aridity gradient. We exposed all species to constant environments of 15degreesC or 35degreesC, and examined to what extent interspecific differences in physiology can be attributed to acclimation. We tested the hypothesis that birds from deserts display larger intra-individual phenotypic flexibility and smaller intern individual variation than species from mesic areas.Larks from arid areas had lower BMR, TEWL, and h, but did not have internal organ, sizes different from birds from mesic habitats. BMR of 15degreesC-acclimated birds was 18.0%, 29.1%, 12.2%, 25.3%, and 4.7% higher than of 35degreesC-acclimated Hoopoe Larks, Dunn's Larks, Spike-heeled Larks, Skylarks, and Woodlarks, respectively. TEWL of 15degreesC-acclimated Hoopoe Larks exceeded values for 35degreesC-acclimated individuals by 23% but did not differ between 15degreesC- and 35degreesC-acclimated individuals in the other species. The dry heat transfer coefficient was increased in 15degreesC-acclimated individuals of Skylarks and Dunn's Larks, but not in the. other species. Body temperature was on average 0.4degreesC +/- 0.15degreesC (mean +/- 1 SEM) lower in 15degreesC-acclimated individuals of all species. Increased food intake in 15degreesC-acclimated birds stimulated enlargement of intestine (26.9-38.6%), kidneys (9.8-24.4%), liver (16.5-27.2%), and. stomach (22.0-31.6%). The pectoral muscle increased in 15degreesC-acclimated Spike-heeled Larks and Skylarks, remained unchanged in Hoopoe Larks, and decreased in 15degreesC-acclimated Woodlarks and Dunn's Larks. We conclude that the degree of intra-individual flexibility varied between physiological traits and among species, but that acclimation does not account for interspecific differences in BMR, TEWL, and h in larks. We found no general support for the hypothesis that species from desert environments display larger intra-individual phenotypic flexibility than those from mesic areas.The coefficient of variation of larks acclimated to their natural environment was smaller in species from and areas than in species from mesic areas for mass-corrected BMR and surface-specific h, but not for mass-corrected TEWL. The high repeatabilities of BMR, TEWL, and h in several species indicated a within-individual consistency on which natural selection could operate.</p

Googling Food Webs: Can an Eigenvector Measure Species' Importance for Coextinctions?

A major challenge in ecology is forecasting the effects of species' extinctions, a pressing problem given current human impacts on the planet. Consequences of species losses such as secondary extinctions are difficult to forecast because species are not isolated, but interact instead in a complex network of ecological relationships. Because of their mutual dependence, the loss of a single species can cascade in multiple coextinctions. Here we show that an algorithm adapted from the one Google uses to rank web-pages can order species according to their importance for coextinctions, providing the sequence of losses that results in the fastest collapse of the network. Moreover, we use the algorithm to bridge the gap between qualitative (who eats whom) and quantitative (at what rate) descriptions of food webs. We show that our simple algorithm finds the best possible solution for the problem of assigning importance from the perspective of secondary extinctions in all analyzed networks. Our approach relies on network structure, but applies regardless of the specific dynamical model of species' interactions, because it identifies the subset of coextinctions common to all possible models, those that will happen with certainty given the complete loss of prey of a given predator. Results show that previous measures of importance based on the concept of “hubs” or number of connections, as well as centrality measures, do not identify the most effective extinction sequence. The proposed algorithm provides a basis for further developments in the analysis of extinction risk in ecosystems

Networked buffering: a basic mechanism for distributed robustness in complex adaptive systems

A generic mechanism - networked buffering - is proposed for the generation of robust traits in complex systems. It requires two basic conditions to be satisfied: 1) agents are versatile enough to perform more than one single functional role within a system and 2) agents are degenerate, i.e. there exists partial overlap in the functional capabilities of agents. Given these prerequisites, degenerate systems can readily produce a distributed systemic response to local perturbations. Reciprocally, excess resources related to a single function can indirectly support multiple unrelated functions within a degenerate system. In models of genome:proteome mappings for which localized decision-making and modularity of genetic functions are assumed, we verify that such distributed compensatory effects cause enhanced robustness of system traits. The conditions needed for networked buffering to occur are neither demanding nor rare, supporting the conjecture that degeneracy may fundamentally underpin distributed robustness within several biotic and abiotic systems. For instance, networked buffering offers new insights into systems engineering and planning activities that occur under high uncertainty. It may also help explain recent developments in understanding the origins of resilience within complex ecosystems. \ud \u

Invasions and Extinctions Reshape Coastal Marine Food Webs

The biodiversity of ecosystems worldwide is changing because of species loss due to human-caused extinctions and species gain through intentional and accidental introductions. Here we show that the combined effect of these two processes is altering the trophic structure of food webs in coastal marine systems. This is because most extinctions (∼70%) occur at high trophic levels (top predators and other carnivores), while most invasions are by species from lower trophic levels (70% macroplanktivores, deposit feeders, and detritivores). These opposing changes thus alter the shape of marine food webs from a trophic pyramid capped by a diverse array of predators and consumers to a shorter, squatter configuration dominated by filter feeders and scavengers. The consequences of the simultaneous loss of diversity at top trophic levels and gain at lower trophic levels is largely unknown. However, current research suggests that a better understanding of how such simultaneous changes in diversity can impact ecosystem function will be required to manage coastal ecosystems and forecast future changes

Probabilistic modeling of personalized drug combinations from integrated chemical screen and molecular data in sarcoma

BACKGROUND: Cancer patients with advanced disease routinely exhaust available clinical regimens and lack actionable genomic medicine results, leaving a large patient population without effective treatments options when their disease inevitably progresses. To address the unmet clinical need for evidence-based therapy assignment when standard clinical approaches have failed, we have developed a probabilistic computational modeling approach which integrates molecular sequencing data with functional assay data to develop patient-specific combination cancer treatments. METHODS: Tissue taken from a murine model of alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma was used to perform single agent drug screening and DNA/RNA sequencing experiments; results integrated via our computational modeling approach identified a synergistic personalized two-drug combination. Cells derived from the primary murine tumor were allografted into mouse models and used to validate the personalized two-drug combination. Computational modeling of single agent drug screening and RNA sequencing of multiple heterogenous sites from a single patient's epithelioid sarcoma identified a personalized two-drug combination effective across all tumor regions. The heterogeneity-consensus combination was validated in a xenograft model derived from the patient's primary tumor. Cell cultures derived from human and canine undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma were assayed by drug screen; computational modeling identified a resistance-abrogating two-drug combination common to both cell cultures. This combination was validated in vitro via a cell regrowth assay. RESULTS: Our computational modeling approach addresses three major challenges in personalized cancer therapy: synergistic drug combination predictions (validated in vitro and in vivo in a genetically engineered murine cancer model), identification of unifying therapeutic targets to overcome intra-tumor heterogeneity (validated in vivo in a human cancer xenograft), and mitigation of cancer cell resistance and rewiring mechanisms (validated in vitro in a human and canine cancer model). CONCLUSIONS: These proof-of-concept studies support the use of an integrative functional approach to personalized combination therapy prediction for the population of high-risk cancer patients lacking viable clinical options and without actionable DNA sequencing-based therapy

The Effect of Consumers and Mutualists of Vaccinium membranaceum at Mount St. Helens: Dependence on Successional Context

In contrast to secondary succession, studies of terrestrial primary succession largely ignore the role of biotic interactions, other than plant facilitation and competition, despite the expectation that simplified interaction webs and propagule-dependent demographics may amplify the effects of consumers and mutualists. We investigated whether successional context determined the impact of consumers and mutualists by quantifying their effects on reproduction by the shrub Vaccinium membranaceum in primary and secondary successional sites at Mount St. Helens (Washington, USA), and used simulations to explore the effects of these interactions on colonization. Species interactions differed substantially between sites, and the combined effect of consumers and mutualists was much more strongly negative for primary successional plants. Because greater local control of propagule pressure is expected to increase successional rates, we evaluated the role of dispersal in the context of these interactions. Our simulations showed that even a small local seed source greatly increases population growth rates, thereby balancing strong consumer pressure. The prevalence of strong negative interactions in the primary successional site is a reminder that successional communities will not exhibit the distribution of interaction strengths characteristic of stable communities, and suggests the potential utility of modeling succession as the consequence of interaction strengths