Spatiotemporal dynamics in the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic.

Epidemiology and public health planning will increasingly rely on the analysis of genetic sequence data. The ongoing influenza A/H1N1 pandemic may represent a tipping point in this trend, with A/H1N1 being the first human pathogen routinely genotyped from the beginning of its spread. To take full advantage of this genetic information, we introduce a novel method to reconstruct the spatiotemporal dynamics of outbreaks from sequence data. The approach is based on a new paradigm were ancestries are inferred directly rather than through the reconstruction of most recent common ancestors (MRCAs) as in phylogenetics. Using 279 A/H1N1 hemagglutinin (HA) sequences, we confirm the emergence of the 2009 flu pandemic in Mexico. The virus initially spread to the US, and then to the rest of the world with both Mexico and the US acting as the main sources. While compatible with current epidemiological understanding of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, our results provide a much finer picture of the spatiotemporal dynamics. The results also highlight how much additional epidemiological information can be gathered from genetic monitoring of a disease outbreak

Estimating the prevalence of latent tuberculosis in a low-incidence setting: Australia.

Migration is a key driver of tuberculosis (TB) in many low-incidence settings, with the majority of TB cases attributed to reactivation of latent TB (LTBI) acquired overseas. A greater understanding of LTBI risk in heterogeneous migrant populations would aid health planning. We aimed to estimate the LTBI prevalence and distribution among locally born and overseas-born Australians.Annual risks of TB infection estimates were applied to population cohorts (by country of birth, year of arrival and age) in Australian census data in 2006, 2011 and 2016.Both the absolute number and proportion of Australian residents with LTBI increased from 4.6% (interquartile range (IQR) 4.2-5.2%) in 2006 to 5.1% (IQR 4.7-5.5%) in 2016, due to the increasing proportion of the population born overseas (23.8% in 2006 to 28.3% in 2016). Of all residents estimated to have LTBI in 2016; 93.2% were overseas born, 21.6% were aged <35 years and 34.4% had migrated to Australia since 2007.The overall prevalence of LTBI in Australia is low. Some residents, particularly migrants from high-incidence settings, may have considerably higher risk of LTBI, and these findings allow for tailored public health interventions to reduce the risk and impact of future TB disease

Patients with presumed tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa that are not diagnosed with tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Many patients in sub-Saharan Africa whom a diagnosis of tuberculosis is considered are subsequently not diagnosed with tuberculosis. The proportion of patients this represents, and their alternative diagnoses, have not previously been systematically reviewed. METHODS: We searched four databases from inception to 27 April 2020, without language restrictions. We included all adult pulmonary tuberculosis diagnostic studies from sub-Saharan Africa, excluding case series and inpatient studies. We extracted the proportion of patients with presumed tuberculosis subsequently not diagnosed with tuberculosis and any alternative diagnoses received. We conducted a random effects meta-analysis to obtain pooled estimates stratified by passive and active case finding. RESULTS: Our search identified 1799 studies, of which 18 studies (2002-2019) with 14 527 participants from 10 African countries were included. The proportion of patients with presumed tuberculosis subsequently not diagnosed with tuberculosis was 48.5% (95% CI 39.0 to 58.0) in passive and 92.8% (95% CI 85.0 to 96.7) in active case-finding studies. This proportion increased with declining numbers of clinically diagnosed tuberculosis cases. A history of tuberculosis was documented in 55% of studies, with just five out of 18 reporting any alternative diagnoses. DISCUSSION: Nearly half of all patients with presumed tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa do not have a final diagnosis of active tuberculosis. This proportion may be higher when active case-finding strategies are used. Little is known about the healthcare needs of these patients. Research is required to better characterise these patient populations and plan health system solutions that meet their needs. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018100004

Nutritional Ketosis Alters Fuel Preference and Thereby Endurance Performance in Athletes.

Ketosis, the metabolic response to energy crisis, is a mechanism to sustain life by altering oxidative fuel selection. Often overlooked for its metabolic potential, ketosis is poorly understood outside of starvation or diabetic crisis. Thus, we studied the biochemical advantages of ketosis in humans using a ketone ester-based form of nutrition without the unwanted milieu of endogenous ketone body production by caloric or carbohydrate restriction. In five separate studies of 39 high-performance athletes, we show how this unique metabolic state improves physical endurance by altering fuel competition for oxidative respiration. Ketosis decreased muscle glycolysis and plasma lactate concentrations, while providing an alternative substrate for oxidative phosphorylation. Ketosis increased intramuscular triacylglycerol oxidation during exercise, even in the presence of normal muscle glycogen, co-ingested carbohydrate and elevated insulin. These findings may hold clues to greater human potential and a better understanding of fuel metabolism in health and disease

Clinical, laboratory and pathological findings in dogs experimentally infected with Angiostrongylus vasorum

The aim of this comparative study was to investigate the development of clinical signs and accompanying haematological, coproscopic and pathological findings as a basis for the monitoring of health condition of Angiostrongylus vasorum infected dogs. Six beagles were orally inoculated with 50 (n = 3) or 500 (n = 3) A. vasorum third stage larvae (L3) obtained from experimentally infected Biomphalaria glabrata snails. Two dogs were treated with moxidectin/imidacloprid spot-on solution and two further dogs with an oral experimental compound 92 days post infection (dpi), and were necropsied 166 dpi. Two untreated control dogs were necropsied 97 dpi. Prepatency was 47-49 days. Dogs inoculated with 500 L3 exhibited earlier (from 42 dpi) and more severe respiratory signs. Clinical signs resolved 12 days after treatment and larval excretion stopped within 20 days in all four treated dogs. Upon necropsy, 10 and 170 adult worms were recovered from the untreated dogs inoculated with 50 and 500 L3, respectively. Adult worms were also found in two treated dogs, in the absence of L1 or eggs. Despite heavy A. vasorum infection load and severe pulmonary changes including vascular thrombosis, only mild haematological changes were observed. Eosinophilia was absent but the presence of plasma cells was observed. Neutrophilic leucocytes showed a transient increase but only after treatment. Signs for coagulopathies were slight; nevertheless coagulation parameters were inoculation dose dependent. Ten weeks after treatment pulmonary fibrosis was still present. Infections starting from 50 L3 of A. vasorum had a massive impact on lung tissues and therefore on the health of affected dogs, particularly after prepatency, although only mild haematological abnormalities were evident

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Search for heavy resonances decaying to two Higgs bosons in final states containing four b quarks

A search is presented for narrow heavy resonances X decaying into pairs of Higgs bosons (H) in proton-proton collisions collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at root s = 8 TeV. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb(-1). The search considers HH resonances with masses between 1 and 3 TeV, having final states of two b quark pairs. Each Higgs boson is produced with large momentum, and the hadronization products of the pair of b quarks can usually be reconstructed as single large jets. The background from multijet and t (t) over bar events is significantly reduced by applying requirements related to the flavor of the jet, its mass, and its substructure. The signal would be identified as a peak on top of the dijet invariant mass spectrum of the remaining background events. No evidence is observed for such a signal. Upper limits obtained at 95 confidence level for the product of the production cross section and branching fraction sigma(gg -> X) B(X -> HH -> b (b) over barb (b) over bar) range from 10 to 1.5 fb for the mass of X from 1.15 to 2.0 TeV, significantly extending previous searches. For a warped extra dimension theory with amass scale Lambda(R) = 1 TeV, the data exclude radion scalar masses between 1.15 and 1.55 TeV

Search for supersymmetry in events with one lepton and multiple jets in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe